Links - 18th July 2020 (1) (China's 'Peaceful' Rise)

Coronavirus and the Blindness of Authoritarianism - The Atlantic - "How did Xi Jinping—the general secretary of the Communist Party of China, who has been consolidating his power since taking over the post in 2012—let things get to this point?It might be that he didn’t fully know what was happening in his own country until it was too late.Xi would be far from the first authoritarian to have been blindsided. Ironically, for all the talk of the technological side of Chinese authoritarianism, China’s use of technology to ratchet up surveillance and censorship may have made things worse, by making it less likely that Xi would even know what was going on in his own country... Xi would not even be the first Chinese ruler to fall victim to the totality of his own power. On August 4, 1958, buoyed by reports pouring in from around the country of record grain, rice, and peanut production, an exuberant Chairman Mao Zedong wondered how to get rid of the excess, and advised people to eat “five meals a day.” Many did, gorging themselves in the new regime canteens and even dumping massive amounts of “leftovers” down gutters and toilets. Export agreements were made to send tons of food abroad in return for machinery or currency. Just months later, perhaps the greatest famine in recorded history began, in which tens of millions would die because, in fact, there was no such surplus. Quite the opposite: The misguided agricultural policies of the Great Leap Forward had caused a collapse in food production. Yet instead of reporting the massive failures, the apparatchiks in various provinces had engaged in competitive exaggeration, reporting ever-increasing surpluses both because they were afraid of reporting bad news and because they wanted to please their superiors. Mao didn’t know famine was at hand, because he had set up a system that ensured he would hear lies. Smart rulers have tried to create workarounds to avoid this authoritarian dilemma... For a few years, it appeared that China had found a way to be responsive to its citizens without giving them political power. Researchers have shown, for example, that posts on Weibo (China’s Twitter) complaining about problems in governance or corruption weren’t all censored... A corrupt official was even removed from office after outraged netizens on social media pointed out the expensive watches he wore, which were impossible to buy on his government salary... Since taking power in 2012, Xi has shifted back to traditional one-man rule, concentrating more and more power into his hands. He has deployed an ever-more suffocating system of surveillance, propaganda, and repression, while attempting to create a cult of personality reminiscent of the Mao era, except with apps instead of little red books. Unlike books, though, apps can spy on people... An earlier hint that Xi’s China was falling into authoritarian blindness came during the ongoing Hong Kong protests... the Beijing insiders miscalculated. They genuinely believed that the real cause for the Hong Kong unrest was the high rents on the densely populated island, and also thought that the people did not support the protesters. Authoritarian blindness had turned an easily solvable problem into a bigger, durable crisis that exacted a much heavier political toll, a pattern that would repeat itself after a mysterious strain of pneumonia emerged in a Wuhan seafood market... Given exponential growth dynamics of infectious diseases, containing an epidemic is straightforward early on, but nearly impossible once a disease spreads among a population. So it’s maximally important to identify and quarantine candidate cases as early as possible, and that means leadership must have access to accurate information... [SARS] should have made it clear that cover-ups are futile when it comes to pandemics, because viruses don’t respect borders. (The Soviet Union learned that radiation doesn’t either, when Sweden alerted the world to the Chernobyl accident.)It’s hard to imagine that a leader of Xi’s experience would be so lax as to let the disease spread freely for almost two months, only to turn around and shut the whole country down practically overnight... Xi would say he gave instructions for fighting the virus as early as January 7, implying that he knew about it all along. But how could he admit the alternative? This is his system... During the Ming dynasty, Emperor Zhu Di found out that some petitions to the emperor had not made it to him, because officials were blocking them. He was alarmed and ordered such blocks removed. “Stability depends on superior and inferior communicating; there is none when they do not. From ancient times, many a state has fallen because a ruler did not know the affairs of the people”"

China sentences Swedish bookseller Gui Minhai to 10 years in prison - "A court in eastern China has sentenced a Swedish seller of books that took a skeptical look at the ruling Communist Party to 10 years in prison for “illegally providing intelligence overseas,” in a further sign of Beijing’s hard line toward its critics.Gui Minhai first disappeared in 2015, when he was believed to have been abducted by Chinese agents from his seaside home in Thailand. He and four others who worked for the same Hong Kong publishing company all went missing at around the same time, only to turn up months later in police custody in mainland China... The court claims that Gui, who was born in Ningbo, applied to reinstate his Chinese citizenship in 2018. That would mean renouncing his Swedish citizenship, as China does not officially allow dual citizenship."

Virus Latest: Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse - Bloomberg - "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. Only 30% of such firms have managed to resume operations due to a complicated local government approval procedure as well as a lack of employees and financing... Many of China’s businesses were already grasping for lifelines before the virus hit, pummeled by a trade war and lending crackdown that sent economic growth to a three-decade low last year."

Don't let China start dominating UN agencies - Nikkei Asian Review - "Developments at the International Telecommunication Union are a case in point. A recent analysis by the Center for a New American Security, a U.S. think tank, finds that the ITU has tended to curry favor with Beijing since its top post was filled by a Chinese official about five years ago."

How China Sees the Hong Kong Crisis - "[Xi] spelled out what he sees as the proper way to proceed: “Economic development is the only golden key to resolving all sorts of problems facing Hong Kong today.”... Beijing considers disaffection among Hong Kong’s residents a natural outgrowth of the territory’s colonial British past and also a result of the continuing influence of Western values. Indeed, during the 1984 negotiations between China and the United Kingdom over Hong Kong’s future, the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping suggested following the approach of “one country, two systems” for 50 years precisely to give people in Hong Kong plenty of time to get used to the Chinese political system... At first, Hong Kongers seemed to accept their new role as citizens of a rising China. In 1997, in a tracking poll of Hong Kong residents regularly conducted by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, 47 percent of respondents identified themselves as “proud” citizens of China... By this past June, only 27 percent of respondents to the tracking poll described themselves as “proud” to be citizens of China... Still, Chinese leaders do not blame themselves for these shifts in public opinion. Rather, they believe that Western powers, especially the United States, have sought to drive a wedge between Hong Kong and the mainland... Wrecking Hong Kong’s economy by using military force to impose emergency rule would not be a good thing for China. But the negative effect on the mainland’s prosperity would not be strong enough to prevent Beijing from doing whatever it believes is necessary to maintain control over the territory."

Taiwan says China forced Malaysian state to ban Taiwanese entry on COVID-19 fears - "Taiwan's foreign minister said on Thursday (Mar 5) that China had forced the Malaysian state of Sarawak to reinstate a ban on travellers from the island as part of coronavirus control steps, saying Beijing was taking "joy" in the measures. Taiwan says the World Health Organization's (WHO) inclusion of the island as part of China's virus area has mislead countries into believing the island's virus situation is as serious as China's... "Guess what? China forced Sarawak into banning Taiwan again! China takes joy in shoving Taiwan around & then expects gratitude for its Wuhan sacrifice. That's sickening."In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had "politicised" the issue."China has always opposed the politicisation of the issue of prevention and control of the epidemic. We care about our Taiwan compatriots' health and wellbeing. The DPP has politicized this issue, and really should be held in contempt," he said, without elaborating. China has expressed displeasure with countries that ban Chinese travellers... This is not the first time Taiwan has faced travel exclusions because of what Taiwan says is a mistaken link to China.Vietnam and the Philippines both lifted flight or travel bans on Taiwan after Taipei complained. Taiwan has been less successful in the case of Italy, whose ban on Chinese flights includes Taiwan.Taiwan is separately ruled from China and China has no say in the island's health policy."

Bloomberg News Is Said to Curb Articles That Might Anger China - The New York Times - "“He said, ‘If we run the story, we’ll be kicked out of China,’ ” one of the employees said. Less than a week later, a second article, about the children of senior Chinese officials employed by foreign banks, was also declared dead, employees said... Bloomberg News infuriated the government in 2012 by publishing a series of articles on the personal wealth of the families of Chinese leaders, including the new Communist Party chief, Xi Jinping. Bloomberg’s operations in China have suffered since, as new journalists have been denied residency and sales of its financial terminals to state enterprises have slowed. Chinese officials have said repeatedly that news coverage on the wealth and personal lives of Chinese leaders crosses a red line... As the article on Mr. Xi’s family was published, in June 2012, Chinese officials ordered the Bloomberg News website blocked. Today, it remains inaccessible on Chinese servers. No Bloomberg journalist trying to enter China on a new long-term assignment has received a residency visa.Most important for the larger Bloomberg company’s bottom line, financial news terminal subscriptions, which cost more than $20,000 per year and are the main revenue generator for Bloomberg, slowed for a spell in China, after officials issued orders to some Chinese companies to avoid buying subscriptions... An article by Cathy Chan, another reporter in Hong Kong, ran into similar problems within a week. The article was halted after a conference call with New York, employees said. The article outlined how children of Chinese leaders, or “princelings,” had secured jobs at foreign banks. The hiring practice has come under scrutiny: In August, American newspapers reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating whether JPMorgan Chase had hired the children of senior Chinese officials to win business in China."
China is so keen to crack down on corruption that you can't report on how rich its leaders are

China hints at denying Americans life-saving coronavirus drugs - "The disturbing threats made during a global pandemic as well as the scary consequences if that threat becomes real highlight just how tight China's grip is on the global supply chain... As the rest of the world scrambles to contain the virus and protect its citizens, China has been busy casting itself in the role of global hero going so far as to demand a thank you for containing the virus as long as it did."

Friends Don't Let Friends Become Chinese Billionaires - "it seems to me that a Chinese billionaire dies every 40 days.China Daily reported Friday that unnatural deaths have taken the lives of 72 mainland billionaires over the past eight years... Mortality rate notwithstanding, what's more disturbing is how these mega wealthy souls met their demise. According to China Daily, 15 were murdered, 17 committed suicide, seven died from accidents and 19 died from illness. Oh, yes, and 14 were executed... I find it somewhat improbable that among such a small population there could be so many "suicides," "accidents" and "death by disease" (the average age of those who died from illness was only 48). I'm only speculating but the homicide toll could really be much higher."

Chinese property tycoon 'disappears' after criticizing Xi Jinping's coronavirus response: report - "A Chinese property tycoon is missing after criticizing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak that originated in the country in December, the New York Times reported Saturday.Ren Zhiqiang, known as “The Cannon,” in the past has been one of the most prominent critics of Xi. Saturday morning his friends reported him missing... His disappearance comes amid a campaign from the Chinese state to eliminate criticism of the government... In 2016, the party put Ren on a year’s probation for denouncing Xi’s propaganda policies in comments online. He has also reportedly previously been banned from leaving the country and forced to delete his social media accounts because of his frustration with the government's authoritarian policies"

China's rise may not be inevitable - "Actually, China identifies with the world, is the world, distinct from the rest of the world. It is a curious – for us Westerners, inconceivable – form of universalism. And yet, it is the perspective of a giant who really never stopped thinking of himself as the center of the world, even when, from the second half of the 19th century to the Thirties of the 20th century, he was forced into practically complete introversion.The Middle Kingdom has never internalized a perception of the globe coming from outside. It did not open during the course of its two historic moments of failure: in the 17th century, culminating in the collapse of the Ming dynasty in 1644; and exactly two centuries later, in the 19th century, from the Opium Wars (the first was in 1841, almost exactly 200 years after) to the collapse of the Qing dynasty in 1911. China’s worldview has not changed much in the current phase of strong external projection, with the present attempt to objectively oppose the US/Western brand of globalization.This reveals an incomprehension rooted in cultural asymmetry between Americans/ Westerners and Chinese, fueled in communist China by the idea of the wounds inflicted by the Western colonial powers as well as an old sense of superiority. The result is an incomprehension of the “world as it is out of China,” which is also evident in the difficulty implementing the project of the new Silk Road or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), announced and imbued with special impetus by President Xi Jinping.By reversing the existing paradigm of globalization, intentionally or unintentionally, the Communist Party of China (CPC) means to impose its vision of the world with the BRI brand. China is doing so without, however, taking into account the still evident prevalence of the North American continent, the nerve center of global affairs, and the overall Westernization of most of the world... Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan all developed because they accepted a culturally different world vision, the Western one... the rise of the communist party occurred not because Mao or the Soviets threw around cash. The CPC won in China because it had more attractive ideas, which defeated the far richer nationalists. This happened when most Chinese were extremely poor. This is how the underdogs manage to win, and why religious organizations are important: they have power through influence... Countries do not think in Chinese terms and do not – or do not want to – understand what tianxia really is, especially as defined by the CPC... In general, the West boasts a superior historical continuity and a formidable ability to overcome critical phases, especially evident in the American case. The 2008 financial crisis was perceived by Beijing as a sign of an inevitable eclipse of the US as a superpower, rather than what it actually was – an accident on the way, although its structural causes are still present. It is precisely because this continuity generally escapes America’s enemies that the US has become the latest incarnation of Western civilization... The power equation cannot end in the economic variable. The United Kingdom lost the role it held before the translatio imperii between Anglo-Saxon powers, but thanks to its media, its cultural and scientific excellence, and its global financial role, a century later it continues to exert a certain degree of worldwide influence. Constantinople, after it was sacked by Venice in 1204, for centuries was a beacon of geopolitical-cultural influence in the West and East. Italy, which long lost its Roman imperial preeminence and the influence and wealth of the Renaissance, still draws attention worldwide. Power is more subtle... Nonetheless, Western declinist literature has taken hold on the new and old continents, placing emphasis on China’s inevitable return to the center of the global scene... The People’s Republic has also attempted to leverage its diaspora in propagating the national myth. For this purpose, Beijing has played for years on the distinction between zhongguoren (Chinese citizens in the PRC, irrespective of their nationality) and huaren (in the current sense, individuals of Han ethnicity, irrespective of their citizenship), in an attempt to identify the former with the latter, to appropriate the Chinese living abroad, and to erode the identities of other ethnic groups, as in the case of the Uyghurs.This effort tried to bank on the fact that overseas Chinese tend to settle in communities that are firmly tied to their home and motherland, a phenomenon encouraged by the often exclusionary policies of the host states. This strengthens the myth of tianxia... the second health crisis in less than 20 years conveys and corroborates the image of a country that is unreliable in terms of health but above all politically."f

China permanent residency proposal: Racist backlash spills onto Twitter - "A proposed law that would make it slightly easier for foreigners to get a permanent residency in China set off a slew of racist and xenophobic backlash on Chinese social media, that eventually spilled over to Twitter... Several tweets, directed at black people and Africans, used the “N word.”"
Diversity is only for the West

Chinese soldiers spotted hauling baby formula onto warships in Sydney Harbour - "Speculation has been rife ever since three Chinese warships docked in Sydney Harbour earlier this week.Prime Minister Scott Morrison insisted the trip was "no surprise" despite the government not publicly announcing the visit.What the PM didn't announce was an apparent military-level baby formula raid.Dressed from head to toe in their camouflage uniforms, officers from the People’s Liberation Army couldn't avoid the cameras as they loaded boxes of Aptamil and A2 baby formula onto their warships... The Australian-made formula has been in hot demand by Chinese nationals after contamination to their own product ultimately led to the death of several children in recent years.Frustrated Australian shoppers have been filming baby formula raids for years, with Chinese shoppers often caught working in teams to beat the limitations put in place by supermarkets. Premium products can fetch more than six-times the price overseas, with some "daigou" shoppers revealing they can earn up to $100,000 a year by reselling the formula online."

It’s time to practice social and economic distancing from China - The Washington Post - "China’s dictatorship bears ultimate responsibility for the pandemic lockdown that is crushing our economy... the ensuing crisis has also exposed just how dependent we have become on China in key sectors of our economy. Case in point: In recent days, the Chinese state news agency Xinhua warned that if the Trump administration is not careful, China could ban pharmaceutical exports and plunge the United States “into the hell of a new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic.” The threat is real. China supplies more than 90 percent of antibiotics used here. It also produces many other drugs and biologics that Americans depend on, including heparin, HIV/AIDS medications, chemotherapy drugs, antidepressants, and treatments for Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease. Rosemary Gibson, author of “China Rx: Exposing the Risks of America’s Dependence on China for Medicine,” told the New York Times this month, “If China shut the door on exports of core components to make our medicines, within months our pharmacy shelves would become bare and our health care system would cease to function.” We also depend on China for respirators, surgical masks and other protective gear that doctors and nurses need to deal with the coronavirus. Since the pandemic began, China has ramped up production, but the government has taken over factories that make masks for U.S. companies such as 3M and is hoarding the supply, leaving Americans at greater risk. Our dependence on China is not just for medicine and devices to deal with this pandemic but also for technology that is critical to our long-term economic and security interests. Take the development of next-generation 5G networks, super-fast cellular technology that the Wall Street Journal reports will soon enable “a world of robot-run factories, remote surgery and driverless vehicles to power a ‘fourth industrial revolution.’ ” The market for 5G technology is dominated by Huawei, a company linked to the Chinese Communist Party... my American Enterprise Institute colleagues Derek Scissors and Dan Blumenthal have recommended that the “United States should change course and begin cutting some of its economic ties with China.” This economic decoupling, they say, “should be limited to areas that are genuinely vital to national security, prosperity and democratic values.” The U.S. government should bar Chinese companies that steal U.S. intellectual property from doing business with U.S. firms, and block access to American capital markets — including listing on American exchanges — of any Chinese company that is tied to espionage, the People’s Liberation Army or internal repression. Such actions may raise costs for U.S. consumers in the short term but are vital to their health and safety in the long term."