South Africa's infinite humiliation

From 2023:

South Africa's infinite humiliation

"The white middle classes, confined to their urban or coastal bubble communities, have largely given up — those who can leave often do. The black middle class are hardly different: revolutionaries have become businessmen and sometimes not very honest ones. “I did not join the struggle to die poor,” proclaimed one senior ruling African National Congress (ANC) politician endlessly mired in sleaze allegations. The unions, meanwhile, are corrupted by greed and the “democratic movements” — a few courageous exceptions allowed — are knee-deep in self-enrichment.

It is now clear that whatever force drives public policy within the opaque and factional halls of the ruling party — which is certainly not the impressionable President Cyril Ramaphosa, who drifts like kelp in the coastal currents of the Western Cape seas — has come to three dreadful conclusions. Firstly, the ANC will stick to its catastrophic redistributive economic policies rather than pursuing growth. Secondly, knowing that its economic plan will cause chaos, the government will batten the hatches against capital flight and pre-emptively seek to chill free speech. And thirdly, it has accepted that what is left of developed world investment interest will dry up and a flailing South African state will have to find succor elsewhere. Enter the Russians and the Chinese.

Let’s start with the ANC’s disastrous economic policy. The recently passed National Health Insurance Act seeks to impose a complex and unaffordable R256 billion (£11 billion) national health insurance system on a state which has utterly failed in key governance functions for nearly 30 years due to epic corruption and maladministration. This has been most prominent in healthcare, where criminal cartels have operated with impunity for decades in securing tenders and, in one recent case, assassinated a whistleblower. The new measures, meanwhile, threaten to displace the extensive and highly successful private healthcare system on which the middle classes and many formally employed workers depend, black and white.

Other draft regulations, this time by the Department of Labour, allow the government to set employment targets for every business to reflect the precise demographic profile of the country, both an absurdity and an impossibility given the uneven spread of skills and demography. On top of this, draft regulations by the Department of Water and Sanitation require businesses and farmers applying for water rights permits to prove that between 25% and 75% of their businesses are black-owned: the equivalent of asking multi-generational Devon farming families to cede chunks of the value of their farms to Tory cronies for the future right to draw water from the Tamar.

And this comes on the back of a failed land restitution programme, which has seen a catastrophic decline in productivity and employment in the millions of hectares handed to new crony or communal ownership. Millions of other hectares, 2.8 million in KwaZulu Natal province alone, remain under communal tenure systems dating to Victorian times. The ANC is too afraid of a rural insurgency to touch the power of the traditional leaders who have the right to rule over this land: the whites are an easier target...

The South African Revenue Services quietly published amendments to its capital export rules. Whereas once individuals could export R10 million (£431,000) a year as offshore investments, now the transfers are classified under the same terms as those dealing with formal emigration: a vastly more complicated and expensive process. The authorities insist the measure is simply to tighten up on cross-border movement of securities after the country was grey-listed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for laxity when billions of rands of embezzled state money flowed out of the country in the freebooting days of former president Jacob Zuma. 

Yet it forms part of a trend. Regulatory changes in 2021 prevented emigrating pensioners from having their pensions paid abroad for three years after leaving South Africa. This effectively kept them hostage, denying them the opportunity to fund the waiting periods to get foreign residency rights. If the young are fleeing, grab the old folks. The government, meanwhile, is pushing ahead with amendments to the Prevention and Combatting of The Crime of Hate Speech Act, which free-speech advocates argue could be used to suppress genuine dissident opinions. Given that the ANC routinely dismisses as racist all criticism of its actions — no matter how valid — this is not an unjustified concern.

The effect of all this will be to hasten the already terrifying skills exodus from South Africa. Nearly a fifth of white South Africans have emigrated since the political transition in 1994; the white proportion of the population is now almost half what it was then. With them went a significant slice of current and future high-level skills. Emigration rates among the talented and hugely entrepreneurial Indian-descended community is reaching similar proportions, limited only by their sense of family duty. This exodus is comparable to the rates of migration from Ireland in the mid-19th century, Italy in the early 20th-century and Syria during the civil war.

Collapsed state educational and training institutions cannot feed demand quickly enough with young black replacements. The coy phrase “capacity crisis” runs through all state justifications for its universal institutional failures, yet it is a self-induced crisis caused by the systemic discrimination against whites and latterly Indians — many of whom were not even born during apartheid — in access to state jobs, tenders and bursaries, and in the preferential employment policies forced on the private sector. In the place of the departing whites have come an estimated 3 million migrants and economic refugees from the rest of Africa, sparking xenophobic outbreaks from black South Africans and the recent panicky withdrawal by the government of 834,000 temporary work permits for Zimbabweans, who have traditionally done the menial and artisan work black South Africans prefer not to do.

The impact on the tax base is visible. Only 12.3% of South Africans pay income tax, and this figure is diminishing. Meanwhile 47% of all South Africans draw state grants, rising to 62% of the black population, and this is growing. Unemployment is at an all-time high of 32.9%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a growth rate of 0.1% for this year, far below that of African peers. We don’t need Yeats to grasp that the centre cannot hold.

That reality was abruptly reinforced last week by the IMF’s annual Article IV Report on South Africa, which warned that the country urgently needed to get its financial house in order lest its current “moderate” risk of sovereign distress deteriorates. The warning coincided with historically low rates for the rand and the first signs that the government may not be able to find enough local buyers for the bonds, which foreign holders spooked by the ANC’s inexplicable policies have been dumping since 2019. Retailers speak openly of bread riots. The Arab Spring is invoked...

The last man drafted from the corporate world, in this case to head up the national power utility, gave his notice in December last year after a failed poisoning attempt on his life. He was then summarily dismissed when he publicly alleged high-level collusion between senior ANC figures and criminal cartels leeching the entity.  

Many ask why Big Business has not demanded an end to the government’s reckless economic redistributive policies as a price for cooperation, but then since the Act of Union in 1910, it has always rolled over for its tummy to be rubbed by the politicians. The cash registers must ring.

The situation is now dire. South Africa’s postal services, rated worse than Nigeria’s by the Universal Postal Union, is about to file for bankruptcy. The ports are rated in the bottom 10 out of the 370 facilities listed on the Container Port Performance Index. The national electricity supplier is technically bankrupt after years of plundering, racial preferment in jobs and tenders, and sabotage. Power outages of 12 hours a day are common. This week it was confirmed that impoverished Mozambique, languishing towards the bottom of the UN Human Development Index (HDI), would be asked to supply power to South Africa, once the most successful economy in Africa.

Every financial metric has weakened under Ramaphosa’s tenure, which is ironic when one considers it was the business community that bankrolled his presidential ambitions in 2017 on the promise he would cleanse the ruling party, create a reformist alliance, and put the country back onto the path of modernity. Pity his backers did not insist on money-back guarantees. The betrayal of the promise of the democratic transition in 1994 is complete, the humiliation absolute.

It is not surprising, then, that the ANC government, bust, broke and bereft of old allies, has turned to new friends who can be relied on not to raise inconvenient questions about governance or human rights or competitiveness: Russia and China. South Africa has refused to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, its navy took part in joint operations with China and Russia in February this year. More intriguingly, in December last year, an embargoed Russian ship, the Lady R, secretly loaded a consignment of munitions from the Simonstown naval shipyard, according to a public accusation made on 12 May by Reuben Brigety, US Ambassador to South Africa. Subsequent reports suggest the cargo may have been bound not for Russia, but for the Russian-Wagner-supported Rapid Support Forces fighting a civil war in Sudan for the reinstatement of their old boss and the ANC’s friend, Omar al Bashir. The deposed president, now imprisoned for corruption, is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged human rights violations in Darfur Province during his tenure. Typically, President Ramaphosa, nicknamed here “Cyril The Silent”, smartly shuffled the issue into a secret Commission of Inquiry whose findings, he assures, will not be made public.

What is not in dispute, however, is that Russian oligarchs close to President Vladimir Putin, some on the US embargo list, are now the main financial backers of the perennially bankrupt ANC. Nor is it contested that a mysterious cache of dollar notes stolen from a sofa inside Ramaphosa’s private game lodge two years ago originated from a Sudanese businessman, Hazim Mustafa, identified by Sudanese media in 2017 as once being close to, yes, Omar al Bashir.

This diplomatic shift has not been a considered strategic response. Like all ANC initiatives, it is a survivalist cringe in the face of a self-induced crisis: panicked, clumsy, shortsighted, self-serving, and harmful. Inevitably, it ends in farce or tragedy as has happened with South Africa’s turn to host Brazil, Russia, China, and India at the BRICS summit in August. The event, which Ramaphosa wanted to make a jamboree of for his new best friends, has turned into a Ruth Rendell-type nightmare in which the host might technically be expected to arrest a main guest, Putin, on a warrant issued by the ICC of which South Africa is a member (but not Russia or China).

South Africa faced the same dilemma in June 2015, when the ubiquitous al Bashir attended an African Union meeting in Durban as Sudanese President while confronted by an ICC arrest warrant. A South African court ordered that he be detained pending clarification as to whether he be handed over to the ICC, but the South African government let him walk away with no more than a tut-tut from the liberal press and opposition."

Proof that Indians are white-adjacent and need to be condemned for their complicity in apartheid!

Clearly South Africa respect international law and the ICC, which is why they want to arrest Netanyahu.

Links - 1st November 2026 (1 - #MeToo)

Book of Lives by Margaret Atwood: 3-star review - "Despite the success of The Handmaid’s Tale, Atwood has in recent years been viewed with unease by some feminists. Her critics may feel vindicated by this memoir. Atwood returns, in one long section, to their chief complaint, concerning a 2015 scandal at the University of British Columbia. A professor faced discipline for allegedly assaulting a student with whom he’d been having an affair. Atwood signed an open letter that called for due process to be followed; MeToo activists declared this a betrayal. Here, Atwood sticks to her position, saying “no freedom of opinion [was] allowed. Dogma set in. A cult had been born.” She tells us the case inspired her to write The Testaments (2019), the unimpressive sequel to The Handmaid’s Tale. To my mind, professors sleeping with students is grossly inappropriate even if it’s consensual, but Atwood is harder to shock."
What a misogynist who supports men sexually assaulting women.

It's no great offence to call a woman beautiful - "Donald Trump may be no Byron, but I imagine Catherine, Princess of Wales, was still gratified to have the US president appear to greet her with the words, “You’re beautiful. So beautiful”. My informal poll suggests 10 out of 10 women prefer that address to “Good to see you” or “What’s new?” He was even channelling the national bard, James Blunt. Yet these innocent words have caused a rumpus, with some accusing the president of breaching royal protocol, or being “cringey” – although there’s nothing in any royal rule book that prohibits open admiration and Trump is that rare, poetic soul who sees beauty everywhere: his “big beautiful wall”, “big beautiful bill”, “beautiful military equipment”, not to mention “beautiful sleeping gas” that could be used on terrorists. It would be plain rude if he didn’t eulogise our big (tall) beautiful princess... we perhaps reached peak pulchritude hysteria last April where the director of a vehicle recovery firm was found guilty of discrimination, having requested a female employee attend a meeting with a client who liked “pretty women”."

Male boss did not sexually harass HR worker because he put hand on her shoulder in a 'fatherly' way, tribunal rules - "Putting a supportive hand on a female colleague's shoulder in a 'fatherly' way is not sex harassment, a tribunal has ruled.  Employment Judge Robin Havard said the gesture may instead signal support and is not done in a way to humiliate or intimidate the recipient.  The ruling came in the case of HR worker Yvette Rankmore, who took to a city council to a tribunal after her male boss placed his hand on her shoulder while offering advice.  Ms Rankore admitted that it was a 'fatherly type gesture' - but said she did not consider that it was 'appropriate' in the workplace.  However, the tribunal, who heard Ms Rankmore did not say anything to her boss about the incident, dismissed the HR worker's claims and said that the behaviour of the male boss was not carried out with the intention of violating Ms Rankmore's dignity... The employee said Mr Carlson acted the same with other people, and another council worker confirmed in evidence that he would 'put an arm on someone's shoulder in a supportive way when showing someone how to do something'...  in August 2024, Ms Rankmore lodged a formal resolution application and said she felt as if the informal process had not led to a 'satisfactory outcome'.  Her concerns were not upheld and she again appealed the findings, but a subsequent hearing found both formal and informal investigations had been 'robust and appropriate'.  The advisor took the council to a tribunal, alleging sex and sexual harassment, among other claims.  In her written evidence, she said Mr Carlson was putting his arms around her and 'rubbing' her back.  The panel said that they were 'concerned' that Ms Rankmore had 'exaggerated' Mr Carlson's conduct by making it sound 'more intimate'."

@KyleNutt: How dating has changed.. #shortfilm
That's what happens when normal human interaction is framed as sexual harassment and assault
This is the video showing asking a girl (a stranger) in a diner on a date vs swiping in the dark at home on dating apps. It's part of a series of 4

Jess Phillips: MeToo pushed teenage boys towards Andrew Tate - "Toxic masculinity is spreading because the MeToo movement did not bring teenage boys into the debate, allowing influencers such as Andrew Tate to dictate the agenda, Jess Phillips has said after the Gisèle Pelicot case."

Men are refusing to give lifesaving CPR to a women - because they're afraid to touch their breasts - "One in three Britons are afraid to give women CPR because they are worried about touching their breasts, a study reveals.  The same proportion of men (33 per cent) also fear being accused of 'inappropriate' touching when giving women chest compressions... Previous research found only 68 per cent of women are likely to receive bystander CPR compared to 73 per cent of of men... A defibrillator can make a critical difference, as when used within the first three minutes it can increase the chances of someone surviving a cardiac arrest by up to 70 per cent. The defibrillator has pads that need to be placed on bare skin on the chest area.  However, when hearing this instruction, 38 per cent of people agreed that their levels of discomfort would rise.  Nearly half of the male respondents (46 per cent) stated they would feel less comfortable using a defibrillator on a woman knowing that they might have to remove her clothing, including a bra, versus 31 per cent of females surveyed."
Time to blame sexism

Examining the Impact of Layperson Rescuer Gender on the Receipt of Bystander CPR for Women in Cardiac Arrest - "Approximately half (48.1%) of the cohort knew how to perform CPR, but only 7.9% had ever performed CPR. When the rescuer was identified as a man, survey participants ranked fear of sexual assault or sexual harassment and fear of touching women or that the touch might be inappropriate as the top reasons (36.2% and 34.0% of responses, respectively). Conversely, when the rescuer was identified as a woman, survey respondents reported fear of hurting or injuring as the top reason (41.2%). "

Diddy's sex-trafficking acquittal marks death of #metoo - "So much of the Diddy trial focused on the performer’s distinct sexual depravity — most notably those lotion-filled “freak-offs” described in nauseating ad nauseam. But this was a case equally defined by a pathological consumption of drugs. Indeed, as the proceedings revealed, Diddy had a constant supply of narcotics on hand: marijuana, ecstasy, Klonopin — which he fed to girlfriends like Cassie and their revolving door of hired and acquired paramours. Drugs complicate, well, everything and they complicated the Diddy case even as they took a backseat to sex. So much of the proceedings — along with the roots of #metoo — were wrapped up in consent, and nothing warps consent more than days-long binges of narcotics. This helps explain why Combs was exonerated on the most serious charges of “sex trafficking” and racketeering conspiracy. His defense claimed the debauchery — the freak offs — were merely amped-up versions of old-fashioned swingerism, set — much like with Weinstein — against a backdrop of luxury yachts and five star hotels. Despite observers who insist there can never be consent when abuse is involved, Diddy’s lawyers reiterated that consent was ever-present and implied. Folks freaked-off because they were being loved or paid — whether in cash or via career boost. Such combustible overlaps shadow many of the highest-profile #metoo-styled cases, which is why so few of them have resulted in actual jail time. Indeed, Weinstein is a rare movement outlier — imprisoned likely for life when men like Kevin Spacey, Matt Lauer and Charlie Rose merely languish behind the bars of ruinous disgrace and irrelevance. Such a future is unlikely to await Diddy, who as the New York Post noted on Wednesday could emerge from the trial as a “martyr.” And why not (besides his clear cravenness)? In the near year since his arrest, article after article has appeared detailing some former friend, colleague, or interviewer recounting Diddy’s alleged sexism or hypocrisy or penchant for violence. Yet besides Cassie, almost no one stepped forward. Many, as in many other #metoo cases, claimed fear — of his power, his proximity to guns and those who use them. Only Shyne, the Belize-born rapper who served nearly a decade in jail for that infamous 1999 nightclub shooting, had the guts to speak out. And perhaps only because he is now back in Belize serving as the Opposition Leader of its House of Representatives. As they say on billboards across New York City’s subway system — “if you see something — say something.” But when it came to Sean “Diddy” Combs, almost no one said anything. For years, decades even. And the results speak for themselves: Diddy is likely to walk free, exonerated by a soft-on-crime New York City judicial system failing their soft-on-crime citizens."

'Believe All Women' Movement Publishes Extensive List Of Exceptions | Babylon Bee - "Included in the list are the following:
   Bill Clinton's accusers
   Joe Biden's accusers
   Potiphar's wife
   Delilah
   Conservative women
   Women who accuse Democratic candidates
   Sarah Sanders
   Any woman the left suddenly decides they don't like anymore
   Nikki Haley
   Dana Loesch
   Women the Democrats no longer have a political need to exploit
   Melania Trump
   Cersei Baratheon
   Any woman who argues for pro-life causes
The full list goes on for another 8,000 pages, explaining exactly which women the left doesn't believe while still proclaiming that everyone should "believe all women." "This new list lets us be consistent with our rallying cry," said Hillary Clinton. "We can now simultaneously say that we believe all women, while conveniently ignoring or silencing women whose stories conflict with our narrative."  The list is available online in a 587 MB PDF download, or a hard copy of the binders full of women can be purchased from Hillary Clinton's official site."

Sean Bean Thinks Intimacy Coordinators Spoil Sex Scenes - "The presence of an intimacy coordinator on set "would inhibit me more because it's drawing attention to things," the Game of Thrones alum, 63, told The Sunday Times. "Somebody saying, 'Do this, put your hands there while you touch his thing.'"  Bean continued, "I think the natural way lovers behave would be ruined by someone bringing it right down to a technical exercise."  He then compared comparing love scenes today to ones he shot with Joely Richardson for 1993's Lady Chatterly's Lover.  "Lady Chatterly was spontaneous," he shared. "It was a joy. We had a good chemistry between us, and we knew what we were doing was unusual. Because she was married, I was married. But we were following the story. We were trying to portray the truth of what D.H. Lawrence wrote.""

Meme - "never get approached by men
 just curious, what actually makes a guy approach a woman? I’m 25f and I’d consider myself attractive (I think I’m fairly pretty, I take care of myself and feel good about how I look), but I never get approached. I’ll notice guys making repeated eye contact with me, but it never goes beyond that. Honestly, both of my past relationships started because I made the first move.  So I’m wondering… what makes a guy actually go for it and approach someone?  Also, is there a way to give off “I want to be approached” energy? I’m not really into dating apps, and I’d love to meet someone in person. i’m not against making the first move but i would love for someone to approach me for a change"
"Unless a woman gives me an irrefutable sign she wants my attention I will never in a million years approach her because nowadays we are taught that women want to be left alone and we are perceived as a nuisance at best, and a threat at worst"

Meme - "Mr. Sinclair, once again it seems you have an opinion to share"
"I've got the truth to share. Miles Morales's VA being bad at flirting does not make him a sexual predator like all of you are making him out to be."

Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - "I’ve experienced this in reverse towards me. My buddy and I were talking with a group of women at the bar about 15 years ago. They were the only other people in the bar at the time. After awhile one of the girls asked for my number. I politely declined saying I wasn’t interested. She was ok with and wasn’t upset (I’m pretty sure she was used to rejection, nice girl but I believe most men would not find her attractive). Her friend on the other hand started to lay into me HARD. ‘How dare you reject my friend. She’s a great person.’ She’s this and that. You’re a piece of shit. You think you’re so much better looking than her, well you’re not.’ Just giving me the business for about 2 minutes. The girl I had rejected had to get her to shutup. I was dumbfounded; I wasn’t being mean or anything! Shit was wild."
Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - "once got the response, "I didn't give you consent to talk to me.""

Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - "Lol, I got told by a trio of hogs that I was too old for them when I was cutting it up on the dance floor and happened in their direction. Not sure what gave them the slightest idea I was interested in them."
Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - "Sometimes you don't even have to approach. I remember this girl just happened to be next to me, her friend approved her and asked her to go somewhere with her, I my friend had returned from the bathroom so I walked up to him and I overheard the friend of the girl telling her that she had saved her from the creepy guy. Looking back I think that girl was a jealous closeted lesbian."

Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - " Just read through all the reddit posts of women asking if they should call the police and get a restraining order because the Amazon delivery guy told her she was attractive. We one upon a time had a very defined social etiquette and everyone knew the proper response to various dilemmas, but I would say social media has completely broken down the order we once had. It's like we're back in cave people times, trying to figure out the new rules."

Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - "Its legit weird, like women these days find their self worth in rejecting "unworthy suitors" and every part of society is there to make a hard situation even harder. Society has created a framework where literally every single person in a 50ft radius is trying to cockblock a dude that approaches a woman. Other dudes are looking to knock you down a peg at any opportunity to bolster their own chances. You have the woman herself, looking for any reason to just reject and shittalk because thats what she sees hot girls doing and it makes them feel powerful for once. You have her friends doing the same thing; either spitefully, enviously or just power tripping as well. You have any bystander that might happen to notice a moment of awkwardness between two strangers ready to step in because they are primed to think "Oh she might be getting harassed." You have any establishment employees nearby doing the exact same thing because they have to keep women in the club or else no one goes, so they have to immediately kick out any potential "creep" without any concern for the male's side of the story. Literally everyone is just looking for a reason to fuck up a man's attempt at walking up, on top of being told nonstop that approaching a woman is the worst thing you can do in 99% of environments. It already was a nerve wracking experience for most, now its kinda ridiculous."

Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - "For sure. I go to the gym quite a bit and a lot of the girls there dress like they're trying to get a boyfriend or something. They're wasting their time because men have been programmed to never approach a girl at the gym, else she will put you on social media as a creeper. It's not worth the risk, not to mention potentially losing your membership."
Im a woman who never gets approached by men : r/AskMenAdvice - "To add to this, especially for people saying "nothing bad will happen", I live in a city of around 300k people in Europe. There are specific women facebook groups and discords (mainly moved to discords now), where women share pictures and information of men that have approached them or looked at them the wrong way.  I'm a guy, so I only see it when my female friends show it, but there are different channels and there's a specific "this guys asked me out, do you know him" channels where they post pictures, most often secretly taken, of the guy that asked them out. It doesn't matter if they agreed to go on a date. And then women come together to gather information and most often trashtalk the guys. Their numbers, addresses, work places, etc.  And these discords have thousands to a couple tens of thousands of members, who were verified through social media to be 18+ women, as these are extremely careful groups. Ofc you can fake accounts if you try hard enough, but still. But it reads like a conspiracy theory. In my city I'd estimate 5% of people are in at least one of them. But that's total population. It aligns with my experience with my female friends, but smth like 1/4 women in the city, aged 20-40 are in at least one of those groups. Not to mention that includes both single and taken women.  So if a guy approaches a women in my city, there's a roughly 25% chance that his picture with his name and personal info will be put on one of those servers for others to find quickly later on. Cause it's there so that a woman can quickly find all information there is about a man as long as she knows his name. With ratings from strangers and discussions if you're hot or if you look like a creep attached to your info. And while it's a nice thing for safety, it's not just that. If you're looking for a job and you're on there, 100% you will be checked out.  And you can find these type of groups in almost every area in the West. Men just don't know about them."

J.K. Rowling on X - "The literary crowd that had a hell of a lot to say about Harvey Weinstein before he was convicted has been strangely muted in its response to multiple accusations against Neil Gaiman from young women who'd never met, yet - as with Weinstein - tell remarkably similar stories."
A note on Neil Gaiman's politics - "He concluded, "I still don't think of myself as a hugely political writer," but explained a bit about his personal politics, saying that "in British terms, I am somewhere in the fuzzy middle, of 'why can't we all be nice to each other?', and 'I really don't like people exploiting other people" – yet in American terms, he said, "that puts me so far to the left of any political party that my politics out there are considered irrelevant"."
Weird what shape being nice and not exploiting others takes

Meme - "23F here, none of the men in my age group are dating. What is happening?
I've known these men since highschool, none of them misogynistic and all of them well-educated and most likely liberal, yet... They just aren't dating. From when they were in highschool, to college, and now trying to begin a career... I am also sure if they have a chance at getting a girlfriend they would do it, yet they don't. My personal theory is they are scared of rejection, being seen as creeps, or maybe they don't think they are worth dating when I think they are. I think this is a big problem in Gen Z, we don't know how to date."

Millennials, the Sex Recession & College Campuses (aka "Is There a Connection Between the Campus Crisis and the Millennial Sex Drought?") - "The modern-day college campus, once a haven for higher learning and intellectual thought, has more recently morphed into a breeding ground for radical new beliefs about sex and race, including those that are, by definition, prejudiced. To understand the current sex drought affecting millennials, widely reported just about everywhere, we should take a closer look at the spread of discriminatory ideas like 'white privilege,' 'white tears' and the notion that our society more broadly is a 'white supremacy’ and a ‘patriarchy’ run by so-called 'cishet white men.'... seemingly ever other week, there is yet another story in the news of men being pilloried for allegations of sexual harassment or assault—men who are indicted publicly without due process. In the cases of Brett Kavanaugh, whose Supreme Court confirmation turned into an international spectacle after multiple women came forward with accusations despite no corroborating evidence, and Aziz Ansari, whose bad date turned him into a pariah over night, it’s not difficult to see why young men would be terrified to pursue sexual or romantic contact with women these days. Mind you, we must also reckon with Title IX’s overreach that led to a rash of campus sexual assault complaints and subsequent hearings that threw due process out the window. And yet, a man’s reputation can be tarnished by much less than allegations of sexual assault these days. Earlier this year, Richard Ned Lebow, a professor of international political theory at King’s College London, was professionally reprimanded after making a joke, while in an elevator at a conference, about wanting to be let off at the ladies’ lingerie department. The unfortunate and perhaps predictable side effect is that men now avoid women in business settings. Women are seen as a potential liability; out of fear of having a #MeToo moment, men on Wall Street have taken up strategies enforcing gender segregation—like banning dinners with female colleagues and not meeting in rooms without windows—as a way of safeguarding themselves from future accusations of sexual harassment. What could we expect young men to be thinking about sex and the dating world based on those examples alone?   This is a sentiment echoed by my colleagues who see patients in clinical practice. Sex and relationships are difficult enough to navigate without having to worry about a current or former partner coming out of the woodwork in a few months or years to say that the consensual sex you had was actually non-consensual. Taken to an extreme, some have begun asking their female sexual partners to record “consent videos” or sign contracts prior to having sex. Although most women would not lie about sexual assault, we can’t neglect that some do. For female students who are constantly being fed messages from their professors that society is an oppressive patriarchal rape culture filled with men seeking to harass, objectify and hold them back at every opportunity, no wonder they graduate from a three- or four-year program hating men. This brainwashing then follows them into the outside world, as these ideas are no doubt exported upon graduation. When hostility and disdain for men is normalized, how could this not have harmful implications for dating and sex?"

Meme - "When the Feminists Said they hate being approached by men coz they're all creeps and now they're complaining that dating is dead because Men don't approach them anymore and have gone their own way..."
The Men: "Hold on. This whole operation was your idea."

How universities teach students to shame - "the death of the 20-year-old Oxford student Alexander Rogers, who killed himself within a week of being shamed by university friends. According to the coroner, he too had become the subject of rumours after a post-pub tryst. While no formal allegation was registered, the woman involved told mutuals afterwards that it had left her feeling “uncomfortable”. An ex-boyfriend of hers was then involved in a physical confrontation with Rogers, while others told him he had “messed up” and they would be distancing themselves accordingly. Shortly afterwards, the third-year material sciences student wrote a goodbye note describing an “unintentional but unforgiveable” act.   It’s usually an oversimplification to assume a suicide is caused by a single precipitating event. Still, the coroner in this case at least seemed to think that the social punishment exacted immediately beforehand played a substantial role. He cited an independent review commissioned by Corpus Christi — the college attended by Rogers — describing a “normalised” culture in which “students could rush to judgment without knowledge of all the facts, could shun those accused, and a ‘pile-on’ might occur where a group would form a negative view about another individual”.  According to the report, “this culture was not limited to Oxford University — it is an issue for the higher education sector as a whole.”   When I was an undergraduate, it was the Nineties, and the balance of social power was still mostly in males’ favour, especially if they came from public schools...   These days, a brief perusal of online resources for undergraduates suggests things have changed quite a bit. Guilt at the relative privilege of most Oxbridge students has apparently been supercharged by powerful ideological forces that were rippling across the country anyway, and now every college seems to resemble a rest home for the nervously exhausted in some kind of expiation.  At my old college, for instance, there are weekly “Welfare Teas”, “peer supporters” and “college parents”. There’s a BAME officer, an LGBTQ+ Officer, a “Womxn’s Officer”, and two “Class Officers… for anyone who identifies with class issues”. There’s also a JCR “gender expression fund… for anything to do with your gender expression, from binders, packets and the like to haircuts, clothes and makeup”. One assumes it doesn’t stretch to manly sporting attire for archaic souls whose gender identity is rugger bugger... a Cambridge student I met in 2023 who said her entire college year group had turned on her after she was discovered to have written a mildly gender-critical blog post; an Oxford student who told me she had defended me against accusations of “transphobia”, and was excommunicated by her peer group as a result.   It’s tempting to rail against the fanaticism of aspiring young witchfinders, and the cowardice of those who fall in silently behind them, especially when the consequences are as grave as in Alexander Rogers’ case. But just as I now look back on the sometimes parodically boorish student behaviour of the Nineties as exacerbated by the wider “lad” culture, glorified at the time in magazines and on telly, so, too, it seems clear that the whispering and pointing now rife among students would not be so popular had influential adults not sanctioned it. In many ways, here too young people are just doing what they think they are supposed to, by diligently copying other people. In particular, the current intake has lived through the group hysteria surrounding #MeToo at a formative age, a movement which started with good intentions but ended up as a trivial revenge project for unsatisfactory sexual encounters. Even as I write, there are women lost in their own projections, confidently opining online that Alexander Rogers must have done something illegal, despite no detailed knowledge about the case. This gamete-divided Manichaeism reigned uncontested in the progressive media for years. In 2020, for instance, a Guardian commentator was telling us with arresting confidence that “[f]or women… ‘bad sex’ almost always involves considerable pain and/or violence”. Any resulting damage to the psyches of boys and girls listening in was treated as negligibly important collateral.   Then, in the run up to university, present-day students will have participated in endless classroom discussions about things such as “toxic masculinity” and “white privilege”. Ironically, this seems to have been especially likely to be the case if they went to places like Eton. And now that they are finally on the home stretch in higher education, they are bound to encounter at least a few lecturers or tutors who delight in rooting out politically suspect language from young mouths and minds, and who approach every topic, no matter how abstract, with an eye to playing hunt-the-victim. That is still the case in every university I know.  Over the years, in other words, they will have learnt that — without having done anything deliberate to earn it — many of them carry a deep moral taint that requires constant vigilance in order to suppress it, and frequent acts of atonement. While public sympathy is rightly with Alexander and his family, please do spare a thought for the young friends of his who believed they were doing the right thing in confronting him. We raised them that way. And now they have to live with the consequences."

I ordered my male junior into my office and had sex with him on my desk... that's the moment the balance of power shifted - "After a year of frenzied flirting, I was unable to control my desire any longer. I shut myself in my office, switched off the lights, closed the electric blinds, summoned Henry and had sex with him on my desk.  It was a wild impulse; a moment of utter recklessness that could have cost me my job and my marriage of three years. I also had a baby, who was just 18 months old, and Henry was in a relationship. But far worse was the fact that at 25, Henry was 15 years my junior – and I was his boss... Henry knew everything about me – my sexual fantasies, what it was like to have sex with me . . .  That’s when I realised how much power I’d given him. Even though he’d started the whole thing and I had the messages to prove it, as his boss I should have known better. In reality, though, the moment I replied to his sexts, the balance shifted in his favour."
Women are always the victims
Age gaps are only bad when the man is older

Meme - David Harsanyi @davidharsanyi: "Ignored her testimony? It was a massive story. Every major outlet tried to corroborate her story. The FBI investigated and found nothing. (Though agents sent affidavits accusing Hill of misleading the public in her testimony, which contradicted what she had told law enforcement officials.)"
Sheldon Whitehouse @SenWhitehouse: "Ignoring her testimony brought Clarence Thomas onto the Court.
Ignoring Dr. Blasey Ford’s testimony brought Brett Kavanaugh onto the Court."
"On this date in 1991: University of Oklahoma law professor Anita Hill testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee on the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court on Capitol Hill. Hill testified that she was "embarrassed and humiliated" by unwanted, sexually explicit comments made by Thomas when she worked for him a decade ago."

Links - 31st October 2026 (2 - French Migrant Riots)

Christian Heiens 🏛 on X - "There is no liberal democratic solution to the fact that a majority of the voting public demands things which are mathematically impossible to provide.  People in France want nigh unlimited funding for everything ranging from Boomer communism to the world’s most lavish welfare state, and no one in electoral politics dares to tell them that all of their demands are physically impossible to meet because courageous politicians are also stupid politicians.  There is no escape. No one can do what must be done because the rewards are too great for those who counter-signal against doing the right thing.   So long as political legitimacy rests upon democratic consent, political reality will tend towards insolvency."
Meanwhile left wingers praise the French and want mobs in the rest of the world to pressure governments to follow them into fiscal oblivion. The fact that even in perhaps the world's most generous welfare state, left wingers still claim it's not enough, is telling.

Carlo Martin on X (Translated) - "🇮🇹 | This is what's happening today in Turin, Italy, where a pro-Hamas mob violently broke through the police cordon and vandalized Piazza Castello. This is not just a student protest; it's a war against the West, and Europe is its first victim."

RadioGenoa on X - "Total chaos in Europe. Brussels. Student protest. Journalist: "What are you protesting against?" Student: "I don't know, but we came to protest." Journalist: "What is your message?" Student: "Destroy everything!" This is not Europe anymore."

Shai Goldman on X - "Marseille city hall has fallen & they have put up Palestinian flags inside"

Connor Tomlinson on X - "If ever there were a metaphor for why our nations are in ruin, it's a bunch of Boomers dancing on the banks of the Seine while the sons of the third world burn Paris to the ground."

cbcwatcher on X - "Deliberate CBC omissions on France protests. CBC on the French high school protests (and the broader October 17 mobilization): teacher shortages, rats in classrooms, tear gas, “kids want better schools,” and now “some unrest.”
What they leave out:
* On October 17, during the national day of action (students + yellow-vest/cost-of-living elements), hooded individuals deliberately set fire to Limoges’ historic 19th-century Hôtel de Ville after burning police cars and forcing entry. The campanile collapsed, much of the roof and structure was destroyed — a “catastrophe patrimoniale.” The prefect and mayor described it as an intentional act by violent groups, not ordinary demonstrators. The building is largely lost
* This sits on top of weeks of earlier violence: schools and fire trucks torched, teachers assaulted or doused with gasoline, hundreds of police injured, Merah/Bataclan-glorifying rap sung at blockades (including in a church), Palestinian flags and “October 7. Day of Celebration” graffiti, and Muslim gangs from banlieues joining leftist activists
* LFI / Mélenchon’s role in escalating the movement. Mélenchon (Trotskyist background) has advocated Islamization and a “great replacement”/“new France,” recruited pro-Hamas figures like Rima Hassan, refuses to call Hamas terrorists, draws heavy Muslim support, and has long pushed anti-police rhetoric. The Gatestone analysis frames this as a leftist-Islamist alliance using school grievances as a vehicle to attack the Republic.
CBC reports the grievances and the clashes. It erases the deliberate destruction of civic symbols, the terrorist glorification, the Islamist symbols and gang involvement, the LFI radicalization, and the explicit rejection of French institutions on display. The sanitized CBC version pretends this is still just about underfunded classrooms"

Andrew Kolvet on X - "The left loves euphamisms. They may call it...
Good trouble Globalize the Intifada Black Lives Matter The summer of love Confronting the patriarchy Ending apartheid Fighting oppression Anti-colonialism Indigenous rights Etc. etc. etc.
 But it's just a bloody, fiery revolution that will destroy all the beautiful things our ancestors left us.  Deport the foreigners. Arrest everyone else.  Vote like your civilization depends on it, because it does."

Jennifer Lee Jones | Facebook - "You know what’s violent? Wage theft. Family court corruption. Police brutality. Institutionalized hostility against poor people. Corporate greed. Ecological destruction. The healthcare system. The president of the United States’ cult. Genocide. Burning government buildings that uphold strategic procedural and generational violence is cultural correction."
To left wingers, violence they approve of is not violent, and everything non-violent they disapprove of is violence

An Israeli mother on X - "They are very organized.   In Marseille, ALL the Jewish-owned shops on the protest path were broken and looted, and most of the Christian-owned ones.  NONE of the Muslim-owned ones.  Here, one guy saves a shop by telling the others "it's a sister".  You know djihad when you see it."

Thaïs d’Escufon on X - "“Don’t smash it up, she’s a sister!” This shop manager protecting her business is spared by the thugs out of Muslim solidarity. Still absolutely no connection to immigration."

(((IsraelMatzav))) on X - "*🇫🇷 WATCH: France’s Riots — Paul Amar Says Jewish-Owned Shops Were Targeted in Marseille*  French journalist Paul Amar, discussing the October 17 unrest in France, says Jewish-owned businesses were singled out on a street in Marseille:  “They came prepared. They had the addresses of town halls. They had addresses of Jewish shop owners.  In a street in Marseille, all businesses owned by Jews were set on fire. Businesses run by Muslims weren’t.”"

Emily Schrader - אמילי שריידר امیلی شریدر on X - "French rioter with sign that says “stop gassing us we are not Jews.” Filthy third worldist garbage."

Andy Ngo on X - "“TRANS ANTIFA” Antifa, Trantifa and far-left extremists did more than a million euros in damage at the University of Nantes @NantesUniv  in France as part of the ongoing far-left (plus immigrant) attacks across the country and also Belgium.  The militants stockpiled chunks of concrete for attacks and vandalized the building with Antifa symbols, stickers and messages everywhere. Seventeen seconds into the video, you can see “TRANS ANTIFA” on the wall."

Rob Schneider 🇺🇸 on X - "France has FREE health care, paid parental leave, paid family leave, FREE child care, FREE preschool, 5 weeks paid vacation, a 35 hour work week, generous unemployment and housing benefits, and heavily subsidized higher education. Everything the left says they want AND THEY'RE STILL PROTESTING AND BURNING SHIT DOWN."
Left wingers will never be happy

French Protesters Demand More Socialism To Fix Problems Caused By Socialism | Babylon Bee - "Angry over the deep societal rot caused by socialist policies, millions of French people took to the streets to demand even more socialism.  The standard of living in France has declined precipitously as the government's socialist policies led to decaying services, punishing taxes, a bankrupt government, and historically low productivity. With mass migration pushing the festering problems of socialism over the brink, French protesters called for an increase in socialism.  "The government has completely and totally failed us. The only solution is more government," said protester Luc Moreau. "If the government controlled my life, I wouldn't be out here looting a Luis Vuitton store, would I? My burning down this store is yet another failure of our socialist government. If only things were super-duper socialist, everything would be wonderful, and I wouldn't be throwing this brick at an old lady."  The protesters consciously tailored their strategies to most effectively communicate their demands. "We want more money invested in schools, so we burned down the old ones," explained local man Phillipe Durand. "The government should have more money to spend on us, so we quit working. In fact, we are prepared to never work again to show just how serious we are about the government taking care of us. Until socialism has taken over completely, we will not stop showing the world the failures of socialism."  At publishing time, protesters had burned down 1,400 local businesses to protest the lack of available jobs."

Shai Goldman on X - "France is arguably the most leftist country on earth & it's still not sufficiently left enough for the protestors. there is free healtcare, free education, they work 35-hours a week, 6 week vacation, there is retirement accounts, free immigration, etc. the goal is a total destruction of a functioning country, no military, no police, no laws, whatever goes. you can not capitulate to the mob, they are finding out & hopefully others wake up"

Brivael Le Pogam on X - "I’m French. I want to talk to Americans who are about to vote Democrat. Not to insult you. To warn you.  I come from your future.  In France we did everything your progressive politicians promise. Free healthcare, free college, generous welfare, strong unions, heavy regulation, high taxes on the rich, a state that takes care of everything. Public spending close to 57% of GDP, one of the highest on the planet. On paper, it’s the dream.  Here’s what it looks like from the inside. France hasn’t passed a balanced budget since 1974. Our debt is above 3,300 billion euros. Interest on that debt is becoming one of the biggest items in the national budget. Our hospitals are collapsing despite record funding. Our schools rank lower every year. Young people with degrees can’t afford an apartment in the city they were born in. Our best engineers leave for London, Zurich and San Francisco. And the rich you wanted to tax? They left too, and took the jobs with them.  The promise was protection. The result is stagnation.  The worst part is that nobody in France voted for decline. Every single step sounded generous, compassionate, reasonable. One more program. One more regulation. One more tax to fund it. Each step alone makes sense. Fifty years of them, and you wake up in a country that can no longer build a nuclear plant on time or keep its streets safe.  I love America because it’s the one place on earth where people still believe they can build something from nothing. I came to Silicon Valley as a self-taught kid and it changed my life. That spirit is the most precious thing your country has.  Before you vote, ask yourself one question: is the program you’re voting for making America more like America, or more like France?  Trust me. You don’t want to be France."

Brivael Le Pogam on X - "Over the last two days I went on Fox News and Newsmax to warn Americans about what's happening in France. Today, the images speak for themselves.  October 17, 2026. In Marseille, France's second-largest city, a mob smashed through the doors of City Hall and stormed the lobby chanting "It's the revolution, we're taking the Bastille." Shortly before, rioters had trashed a municipal police station, breaking windows and throwing smoke bombs inside. Shops on the main avenue were vandalized and barricades were set on fire. In Paris, masked black bloc crews fired mortar fireworks at police at Place de la République while tear gas filled the square. There were 166 arrests nationwide by midday and more than 600 protests across the country, after weeks of blockaded high schools. The Yellow Vests are back.  Now here's what every American needs to understand. What are these people demanding? More: higher wages, higher pensions, more public spending, more state. That's in a country where the government already spends more than half of everything the economy produces.  This isn't an accident. It's where 45 years of socialism lead. Since 1981, left or right, every French government has grown the state. Macron is just the final, most polished version of the same system.  Socialism doesn't create prosperity. It creates dependency. When people rely on the state for everything, every disappointment turns into anger at the state. And the state cannot allocate capital. It doesn't risk its own money, and it never goes bankrupt when it's wrong. It just borrows more and taxes more. Productivity stalls, wages stagnate and prices rise. Then people take to the streets demanding even more state. The loop feeds itself until it breaks.  America, watch closely. If the Democrats fully embrace socialism, this is the trailer for what comes next. History is accelerating. It took France decades to get here. It won't take you nearly as long.  Vote for less government, never more."

Brivael Le Pogam on X - "Greta Thunberg se dit « extrêmement fière » des lycéens français.  Gardez ce signal en tête, parce qu'il résume tout.  En quelques années, la militante du climat est devenue militante de la Palestine, puis supportrice de n'importe quel mouvement de rue en Europe. Le sujet change, mais la posture ne bouge jamais.  Ce n'est pas un hasard. C'est une méthode.  Une cause peut être réelle. Le réchauffement existe, Gaza est un drame, et la colère de certains lycéens est sincère. Mais dans ce logiciel, la cause n'est jamais une fin, c'est un véhicule. On la charge d'émotion, on la vide de toute nuance, et on s'en sert pour faire avancer le même agenda : délégitimer l'Occident, ses frontières, ses institutions, sa culture. Quand une cause s'essouffle, on passe à la suivante. Le climat hier, la Palestine aujourd'hui, les lycées demain. Les drapeaux changent mais l'ennemi désigné reste le même.  Un projet politique se juge à ses résultats, pas à ses slogans. Après trente ans de ce récit, le bilan est clair. On a eu une immigration massive qu'il était interdit de questionner, et une insécurité que les gens vivent dans leur rue pendant qu'on leur explique que c'est un « sentiment ». Des territoires entiers ont décroché de la République. Les classes moyennes paient tout et se font traiter de racistes dès qu'elles le disent. Ceux qui portent ce discours n'en subissent jamais les conséquences. Ce sont toujours les autres qui paient l'addition.  Il faut appeler ce projet par son nom : c'est la continuation du communisme par d'autres moyens. Gramsci l'avait théorisé depuis sa cellule dans les années 30. En Occident, on ne prend pas le pouvoir par la révolution, on le prend par la culture. On conquiert l'école, l'université, les médias, le monde associatif, et le jour où ces idées sont devenues le « bon sens », le pouvoir politique tombe tout seul. C'est l'hégémonie culturelle. La lutte des classes est devenue lutte des identités, et le prolétaire a été remplacé par le « dominé » du moment. Mais la mécanique est identique : diviser, culpabiliser, déconstruire.  Le problème pour eux, c'est que ça ne marche plus.  Cet écosystème d'ONG, de fondations comme l'Open Society de George Soros, d'institutions internationales et de médias qui financent et amplifient ces causes depuis des décennies est en train de perdre partout. Les peuples ont vu les résultats et ils votent contre, en Europe comme en Amérique. Le récit ne prend plus. Quand on en est réduit à envoyer Greta Thunberg applaudir des lycéens français, ce n'est plus une stratégie, c'est un aveu de faiblesse.  Greta peut être fière. Elle assiste à la fin d'une époque."

Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 on X - "French rioters are blasting the rap song “MRH” which glorifies a terrorist who executed a 3 year old French Jewish child.  Lyrics: “Like Mohamed Merah, dodging the cameras  at the Bataclan, I shot him with my eyes, manhunt, Salah Abdeslam.”  14 years ago Mohammed Merah broke into a Jewish school in the French town of Toulouse and executed a pair of 3 year old and 5 year old French Jewish boys.  He then chased an 8 year old Jewish girl named Myriam Monsonego.  Merah caught her by her hair and raised a gun to execute her. His gun jammed, so he changed weapons. He then shot the little girl in the head while filming the execution with his GoPro.  He later said that he carried out this crime to “uphold the honour of Islam.” He called it an act of revenge because “the Jews kill our brothers and sisters in Palestine.”  According to one of his brothers, Merah was raised in an "atmosphere of racism and hatred" in their Muslim family.  Merah's sister Souad later said, "I am proud of my brother. He fought until the end against the Jews, and all those who massacre Muslims, I detest them."  According to his brother, when Merah's body was brought home, members of the local terrorist community visited the family to praise his actions and they cried tears of joy. Their only regret was that Merah had not killed more Jews.  Merah was buried on 29 March 2012 in the Muslim section of the Cornebarrieu cemetery, near Toulouse. About 50 people attended, including the local imam.  The mayor of Toulouse at the time tried to block Mohammed Merah’s burial, so French President Nicolas Sarkozy stepped in to support the burial.  "He was French. Let him be buried and let's not have any arguments about it," Sarkozy said.  Now he is held up as a hero by French rioters."

Donald Trump Jail Tracker | Facebook - "The latest populist propaganda positions France as a warning of what America will become if we don’t reject socialism, immigration, and liberal democracy. But perhaps the real warning is something quite different. France is a functioning constitutional democracy facing genuine challenges involving immigration, economic pressures, extremism, and political polarization. Much like the United States. Yet increasingly, we’re being bombarded with images of France burning, claims of an imminent Islamist takeover, and warnings that Western civilization is collapsing. These messages rarely offer meaningful evidence or solutions. Instead, they offer fear, blame, and a convenient political enemy. Perhaps the most revealing aspect is the projection. People who fear losing cultural or political dominance can become convinced that others are plotting to dominate them. In trying to prevent that imagined future, they may become increasingly willing to impose their own vision of society through authoritarian means. And therein lies the irony. The very people warning us that foreign ideologies will destroy our freedom may be encouraging us to surrender democratic principles, religious tolerance, and constitutional protections in the name of preserving them. France’s problems deserve serious examination, not political exploitation. So do America’s. Perhaps the greatest threat to Western democracy isn’t that our societies are becoming too diverse, but that some of us are becoming too frightened of diversity to defend democracy itself. Are these warnings really about protecting our civilization, or are they revealing how easily fear can be used to undermine the very freedoms we claim to cherish?"
The same people who obsess endlessly over January 6th and Charlottesville support riots, looting and burning down historic buildings when it pushes the left wing agenda

nic carter on X - "the news will tell you that the left are protesting because "of insufficient school funding"   This is questionable at best. France has a massive welfare state. Gigantic. They do not lack for public sector expenditure.
- French public spending accounts for an almost incomprehensible 57.2% of GDP
- the French deficit is 5.1% of GDP and the debt to GDP ratio is 115%
- France spends more on education on both a relative and absolute basis than the EU average
France can't meaningfully increase public spending. they are maxed out. Their 10-year bond trades at a higher yield than Italy or Greece, historical basket cases. so, it's not about public spending. France is an insanely lavish welfare state to the point of serious dysfunction. what's it about then?"
No amount of public spending will ever be enough for left wingers, because they demand unlimited public spending

nic carter on X - "i think she's basically on the money.   my own synthesis is that it's a disparate coalition of loosely affiliated leftist groups brought together for one valid reason alongside a bunch of ... less valid ones
- primary motive: french fiscal chaos due to massive spending on seniors at the expense of the youth (valid)
- secondary motive: un-assimilated immigrants airing racial grievances against french society
- secondary motive: islamists engaging in a show of force and aiming to claim more sovereignty in a general campaign to carve out a share of governance in french society
- secondary motive: french kids that want an opportunity to feel self righteous for vague, indeterminate reasons, more of a social occasion. general antifa/green/pro palestine sympathies
- at the same time: opportunists taking advantage of the disorder to commit arson, theft, and loot
TLDR leftist omnicause"

Philippe Lemoine on X - "As usual, people are looking for deep reasons, but I think there isn't any for the most part and the real explanation is much more boring.  There is a very high level of general dissatisfaction in France at the moment, mostly due to anemic economic growth and inflation, especially with the price of gas. In addition, Macron has been in power for almost 10 years and is very unpopular, which only adds to general dissatisfaction.  The high school protests, although they were already fizzling out, have provided motivation for the left by fueling the hope that it could ride out that wave to energize its own protests.  So there was a fertile ground for protests, which are pretty common in France after summer. Still, while the protests were large, they were hardly impressive by French standards. What set them apart from traditional French social movements is how violent they were.  Contrary to popular mythology, French protests are not generally violent. France has a very strong protest and strike culture, but the meme about how we riots all the time is overdone.  Traditionally, protests are traditionally organized by unions, which coordinate with the authorities beforehand and have a security service that takes care of troublemakers during the protest.  This is why the violence always starts toward the end of the protests, after the official demonstration has disbanded and people begin to scatter, because that's when it's harder for the police to control the situation.  Protests have increasingly led to violence in recent years because they have become more spontaneous and are more often organized by people on social media, but also and relatedly because increasingly far-left groups and children of immigrants opportunistically join them to cause mayhem and loot.  I keep seeing a lot of people who are depicting those kids as "Islamists" and ideologically motivated actors, but I think it's a complete misreading of the situation in my opinion. This isn't an "Islamist uprising" or whatever nonsense people are talking about.  Their actions are opportunistic and driven by a nihilistic culture that is very similar to what you see in Black ghettos in the US, where anti-social behavior is totally normalized, with an added Islamic veneer due to their family background.  This nihilism and their family background makes them susceptible to Islamist indoctrination, which is why terrorists were almost always delinquent before they turned to religion, but most of them aren't ideologues and those who are don't loot stores.  As I explained before, the police often don't intervene because they are overwhelmed and they have instructions from the government not to, because politicians are terrified that if they do a kid will be killed and they will have full-blown race riots on their hands.  So what they do instead is contain the violence geographically and arrest the most violent participants later at home, when the risk that the cops will kill one of them is low, using video/photo evidence.  Eventually things will fizzle out, in part because the violence will discredit the movement and actually make it easier for the government to deal with it, but this tactic is very costly since we are effectively accepting that every now and then far-left activists and immigrant thugs will just burn and loot while the police watch.  The problem from the government's point of view is that, if they use repression by telling the cops to break skulls, they will kill some of the kids and this will result in a massive backlash, leading to more protests and probably even more violence.  I think we need to hand out serious prison time to protesters who are caught engaging in violence to deter this kind of shit, but the government has a very limited ability to do so, because justice is independent, courts are full of left-wing judges who refuse to do that, they are already overwhelmed with cases, prisons are full and we are broke.  So there isn't one single explanation, it's just a combination of factors, including random stuff that nobody could predict. The context explains why something like that *can* happen, but it doesn't explain why it happens when it does. Again it's probably random for the most part.  It would take years to solve the problem even if we started now, which we won't because our politics is completely broken, because it would require getting our budget in order, implementing reasonable economic policies, fixing our immigration and justice system, etc. We are cooked to be honest."

Philippe Lemoine on X - "Just a few hours after Macron spoke on TV about the situations, promising that the government would be inflexible with people who engage in violence, groups of looters are freely roaming Paris and breaking into stores.  There are even videos where you see them breaking into residential buildings and the police seem totally overwhelmed and in many places are nowhere to be seen. This is completely surreal and I don't think anything like that has ever happened before."

Philippe Lemoine on X - "This thread is at best clueless and at worst deliberately misleading.  In general, it's starting to piss me off to see people use the tired cliché of French rioting to pretend that it was just another Saturday in France and that it has nothing to do with immigration (as Hayes is doing in the tweet I'm screenshotting below, which was reacting to Mair's thread), so let me explain.  Yes, the vast majority of the people who protested yesterday were white, nobody serious is denying that. It was a typical protest about the cost of living, which happens almost every year in France after summer.  The protests were larger this year because 1) the left was energized by the high school protests from a few weeks ago and was hoping that it would be able to ride out that wave, 2) the price of gas has increased a lot because of the war and people are pissed and 3) Macron has been president for almost 10 years, he is very unpopular and there is a presidential election in a few months.  The protests themselves were generally peaceful, which is not surprising. Again, despite the meme about how French people are constantly rioting, French protests traditionally don't lead to a lot of violence. That's because they are organized by unions who coordinate with the authorities and have a security service that deals with trouble makers.  The violence doesn't come from the mass of protesters, who in the overwhelming majority of cases are just left-wing French normies with inchoate demands about the cost of living, Macron and public spending, but are law-abiding and would never burn a car in a million years.  It comes from 1) ultra-left groups and 2) gangs of Black and Arab hoodlums who opportunistically join the protests, typically toward the end as they are disbanding and protesters start to scatter, to cause mayhem and loot. The former are relatively small in numbers, very organized and basically professional activists, while the latter are much more numerous, not ideological and just take part in the protests because they think rioting is fun and they can steal shit.  Anyone who denies that the violence and looting is overwhelmingly committed by children of immigrants is either clueless or lying to you. Basically everyone in France knows it and, at this point, even left-wing journalists often don't even bother denying it anymore and just blame that on racism.  Sure, there are also some white people who loot stores because there is also a white underclass in France and it would be surprising if this didn't happen in protests that involved hundreds of thousands, but even when they do they are rarely the initiators of this kind of violence and probably would never have done it had Black and Arab youths not initiated it.  Anyone who has ever witnessed this kind of events in France knows that and, even if you don't live in France, you just have to watch videos to see it. It really takes an incredible amount of bad faith to look at the hundreds of videos showing looters, almost all of whom are Black or Arab, then cherry-pick to find the handful of white people and pretend it's not overwhelmingly a phenomenon driven by children of immigrants.  Obviously, not every Black or Arab is a looter and many of them were among the people who protested peacefully, but everyone with a brain understands that and it doesn't change the fact that almost every looter is Black or Arab. The only reason to bring up this obvious fact is to divert attention from the fact that immigration played a massive role in creating this situation.  Same thing for people who are showing photos of peaceful protests to argue that most of the protesters are white. Again, that's obviously true, but also completely irrelevant and dishonest if you're using that fact to argue that immigration has nothing to do with the violence.  It's different for rioters who engage in confrontation with the police, because again those are far-left activists and are generally white, but they are also not very numerous although they play a disproportionately important role in initiating the violence because they are very organized.  But if the police didn't also have to deal with a much larger number of immigrant hoodlums, which ties up a lot of manpower, it would be much easier to deal with anarchists and the kind of things we have seen yesterday would be much less likely to happen.  So no, looting or even rioting is not part of French culture, at least if by that you mean that it's behavior typical French protesters regularly engage in. It's overwhelmingly done by a small minority of professional far-left activists and a much larger number of Black and Arab hoodlums who opportunistically piggyback on traditional French social movements.  The only social movement during which regular French people have engaged in serious violence in recent decades was the yellow vests movement in 2018 and it's precisely because this was so unusual that Macron was so scared at the time. When people make the kind of sarcastic comment Hayes made, about the supposed French culture of rioting and looting, the only thing they are proving is that they have no idea what they're talking about.  Yes, I know that we took the Bastille in 1789 and that French people engaged in various insurrections in the subsequent century, but that's pretty much completely irrelevant to what is happening right now. If you want to go back even further in time and look really smart, you could even mention the Bagaudae in 3rd century AD Gaul and talk about how it was a proto-communist movement that shows how deeply ingrained rioting is in French culture.  But if you think that bringing up that stuff to explain current events makes you smart, you should think again. It just makes you intellectually lazy at best and intellectually dishonest at worst, although to be clear those are not mutually inconsistent possibilities."

Israel Supporters תומכי ישראל | Facebook - "France should not attack innocent Paristinian students with tear gas, water cannons, or grenades. This is genocide. We urge a diplomatic solution and demand an immediate ceasefire by France!"

Poverty Not Causing Crime

Since this is at least the second time this week I've gotten this kind of cope from left wingers:

A: "Believing that "people wouldn't do crimes if their basic needs were met" while also believing that "greedy rich people are stealing from everyone" never registers to the people who say this *** as inherently contradictory."

B: When you say “believing that people wouldn’t do crimes if their basic needs were met” you make it sound like it’s an opinion. It’s not. It’s a statistical truth. Of course there will always be people born greedy and willing to do crime. Sometimes they’re born in poverty. Sometimes they’re born into wealth. It’s really not that hard to understand.

Me: Too bad the evidence tells us poverty doesn't cause crime. Left wingers just keep lying

B: what evidence?

Me: The Impacts of Guaranteed Basic Income on Crime Perpetration and Victimization

"This paper provides the first experimental evidence on the impact of providing a guaranteed basic income on criminal perpetration and victimization. We analyze a nationwide randomized controlled trial that provided 2,000 unemployed individuals in Finland with an unconditional monthly payment of 560 Euros for two years (2017-2018), while 173,222 comparable individuals remained under the existing social safety net. Using comprehensive administrative data on police reports and district court trials, we estimate precise zero effects on criminal perpetration and victimization. Point estimates are small and statistically insignificant across all crime categories. Our confidence intervals rule out reductions in perpetration of 5 percent or more for crime reports and 10 percent or more for criminal charges."

Does Wealth Inhibit Criminal Behavior? Evidence from Swedish Lottery Winners and Their Children

"There is a well-established negative gradient between economic status and crime, but its underlying causal mechanisms are not well understood. We use data on four Swedish lotteries matched to data on criminal convictions to gauge the causal effect of financial windfalls on player’s own crime and their children’s delinquency. We estimate a positive but statistically insignificant effect of lottery wealth on players’ own conviction risk. Our estimates allow us to rule out effects one fifth as large as the cross-sectional gradient between income and crime. We also estimate a less precise null effect of parental lottery wealth on child delinquency."

Childhood family income, adolescent violent criminality and substance misuse: quasi-experimental total population study

"There were no associations between childhood family income and subsequent violent criminality and substance misuse once we had adjusted for unobserved familial risk factors."

B: I’m going to give you a free piece of advice. When you’re trying to argue with someone and use Google, cross check your sources. I’m not gonna do it for you, because I want you to learn from this.

If you have a strong opinion about something, research the opposition of that opinion so you are informed about what you are arguing against. Don’t just ask Google to reinforce what you already believe.

If you do that, we can have a logical discussion. Don’t just throw out bullshit studies that can be easily dismissed. It’s a waste of everybody’s time.

Me: Yes, left wingers love to dismiss peer reviewed research that they disagree with. Cope

B: …really?

Me: Yes you so eloquently laid out an argument for why the multiple studies I presented refute your claim that I am unable to respond to your multiple points engaging with the argument

Lol

B: is it worth my time to look up the multiple studies and real life examples that prove you wrong? Or are you just going to shrug it off as fake.

Because you had Google at the ready to reinform your position. You don’t even care how incredulous those sources are. I don’t think there’s any facts I can throw at you to change your mind. Unfortunately the best I can do is bully you and pray it sinks in that you need to be better informed. You need to learn how to research before you shoot your mouth off about things you know nothing about.

Me: The irony is off the scales here

B: I can tell you know you’re in the wrong here. Do I really need to point out why? You can tap out now. 

Links - 31st October 2026 (1 - China's 'Peaceful' Rise: Taiwan)

Melissa Chen on X - "In case you missed it:   China just launched unprecedented military “drills” around Taiwan. These are de facto incursions on the self-ruled island, involving a record 153 Chinese military aircraft, dozens of navy + coastguard vessels, and cyber-attacks.   It surrounded the main island and outer territories, simulating a blockade and practicing an attack.  And then the Chinese Coast Guard released the following graphic that shows a satellite image of Taiwan’s main island, and a line of arrows tracking around it in the shape of a HEART.   Accompanying script – in the traditional Chinese characters used by Taiwan but not by the mainland – read:   “Hi my sweetheart” and “The patrol is in the shape of loving you.”  I once heard Peter Thiel say in an interview that China is a “weirdly autistic” and “profoundly uncharismatic” country.   This attempt at lovebombing Taiwan (with the full intent of “reunification”) after simulating actual bombing and violence, perfectly illustrates his point."
From 2024

Think China can already take Taiwan easily? Think again. - "China wants the world to believe that it has already decisively won and that no one can do anything about it. But looking past the propaganda, China’s real military strength, while dangerous, is less impressive and more brittle than Beijing would have the world believe. Nevertheless, China’s influence campaign could be effective if it reinforces what China watchers may already tend to believe. For example, the Associated Press has accidentally used a doctored photo from Chinese state media of PLA military exercises. The narrative filters out from there. Many newspapers, television, social media, and academia now all tell the same tale of Chinese overmatch. In short: It has all the doctrinal hallmarks of effective deception. Russia ran a similar playbook prior to its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, depicting its military as an overpowering force. And while Russia is and remains an existential threat to Ukrainian sovereignty, the Russian façade of invincibility was quickly exposed by fierce and sustained Ukrainian resistance against a foe with significant materiel and numerical advantages. It’s another riff on the story of David versus Goliath. What China and Russia fail to remember is that in that story, David wins... China certainly has the air and maritime strength to establish a blockade around Taiwan, but maintaining one could become strategically tenuous for Beijing if it upends China’s economy, especially its international trade. It is also operationally tenuous due to factors such as logistical sustainment, maintenance, and airspace control and coordination. Blockade demonstrations such as Joint Sword 2024A are incredibly costly and fully stress Chinese capabilities, despite their temporary nature. A full, protracted blockade over time will stress the Chinese military system at a higher order of magnitude, making sustainment suspect and vulnerable to disruption. Should the United States and its allies intervene militarily, the “patrol boxes” vaunted on Chinese diagrams of their latest drill could just as easily become “kill boxes” for Taiwanese and US forces to target Chinese ships, especially those off of the Island’s eastern coast. Chinese power projection from its east coast to Taiwan’s west coast is relatively straightforward, and China is likely to maintain superiority along such lines of operation. But Taiwan’s east coast is more easily supported by allies and partners, who could intervene from the territory of Japan and the Philippines or via air and naval power from the Pacific. While China would likely maintain military dominance in the Taiwan Strait, maintaining it east of Taiwan is a fool’s errand. Policymakers should also highlight the sheer difficulty of a cross-strait attack. An amphibious assault from China into Taiwan would be larger and more complex than the Allied invasion of Normandy in World War II, requiring joint planning and coordination that the bifurcated and politically divided services of the PLA lack. A more apt analogy might be the failed Allied Gallipoli campaign of World War I, because China would likely lack the ability to achieve operational surprise and would be sailing into deadly waters filled with mines and munitions. And while Chinese troops may eventually make it to Taiwan’s shores, they would likely find themselves stranded and contained. Establishing a lodgment is one thing; securing and expanding it is another. A 2023 report by Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham identifies the many difficulties China would face in establishing a lodgment and other approaches that the United States and Taiwan could pursue to contain such a lodgment or prevent its establishment. The weaknesses inherent within an authoritarian, communist system only exacerbate these operational factors."
From 2024

Suicide Reveals Taiwanese Army Dangerously Unprepared for Chinese Invasion - "not only is the Taiwanese military facing a serious shortage of soldiers and an entirely dysfunctional reserve system, as my previous reporting for Foreign Policy revealed, half of its tanks may not be able to run—and even fewer have functional weapons. These failures are costing lives even before China fires a single shot. As Taiwanese politicians showcase flashy U.S. weapons bought with taxpayers’ money, the logistics inside the military remain so abysmal that a young army officer killed himself after being pressured to buy repair parts out of his own pocket... the 269th Mechanized Infantry Brigade isn’t some rear-echelon unit but a major combat formation strategically stationed around the outskirt of Taoyuan City, northern Taiwan. It is expected to bear the brunt of ground fighting to stop any invading Chinese troops from reaching the basin of Taipei, Taiwan’s capital. If the 269th is in such bad material shape, how about the rest of the Taiwanese military? Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) does not officially disclose how many “major combat platforms” are in a mission-capable state. During computer-simulated exercises such as the annual Han Kuang war game, however, the military simply assumed its units would have 90 percent fighting strength in terms of personnel and at least 85 percent equipment as mission-capable. “Those numbers are worthless. They have no basis in reality,” James Huang, a retired army lieutenant colonel who has become a prolific military writer and a vocal critic of Taiwan’s defense ministry... On Taiwan’s internet forums, there is no shortage of netizens claiming to be veterans, who complain about the misfortune of having served in logistics and armory jobs. They write horror stories detailing not just buying parts with own money, but also how they were forced to engage in practices like writing fake paperwork and maintenance logs, hiding “surplus” parts from inspectors, conducting hasty and substandard repair tasks, even stealing parts from other units in preparation for equipment inspection or exercise. A Taiwanese army master sergeant, who remains in active service and has long experience in logistics units, confirmed many of these accounts... “If we are talking about something that resembles U.S. standards, I would say 30 percent of the tanks are in running conditions and have functional weapons.” The problem doesn’t stop there, the master sergeant explained, because ammunition, fuel, and field repair resources are also almost always in chronic shortage unless a unit is about to participate in some major exercise... Chang Han-ching, a retired navy captain and a researcher for the Taiwan Center for International Strategic Studies, believes it was the Taiwanese military’s hasty yet critically flawed downsizing that hollowed out its logistics. During the late 1990s and early 2000s, Taiwan committed itself to cutting the force size from half a million strong to fewer than 200,000. Much of the changes were planned by the Office of the General Staff for Operations and Planning of Taiwan’s Defense Ministry, where Chang was a staffer. “Politicians wanted to shrink the size of the military to shorten and eventually get rid of conscription, the top generals obliged. Given rising threats from China, cutting combat units is out of the question. Guess where they cut instead? Yes, logistics, of all things. As if leaving combat units unsupported will do any good.”... The root cause of problems, therefore, appears to go far deeper than just broken tanks and not enough mechanics. Interviewees suggested the answer must lies somewhere between the military’s dysfunctional organizational culture, lack of civilian audit and oversight, and an ineffectual leadership (both military and political) that seems to give little thought to preparing troops for actual war... “Their underlying thinking, based on my observation of the policies, is that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway. They think Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue when the Chinese call our bluff, which hopefully wouldn’t happen,” Chang said... “Speaking strictly from my heart as a retired officer I would never doubt—not even for one second, that the mass majority of our soldiers and officer corps are dedicated to defending the country, and Taiwan can expect every one of them to do their duty on the battlefield—however much equipment is working,” Yu said."
From 2020

Richard Hanania on X - "American experts on China go to Taiwan to encourage the country to defend itself against China. They're taken out to ice cream by retired Taiwanese naval officers, who tell the Americans that Taiwan doesn't want to fight and will basically surrender."
Will Taiwan Just Give Up? - The Atlantic - "Even a few years ago, pandering to China would have been a losing strategy for politicians in Taiwan. The ruling government of President Lai Ching-te, whose Democratic Progressive Party has been in power since 2016, has urged the U.S. to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses in anticipation of a Chinese attack. Cheng and her Nationalists have done the opposite. Their control of Parliament has allowed them to block defense spending, taking particular care to stall the domestic production of drones and other inexpensive weapons that Ukraine has used to great effect against Russia... “Drones should not be used as weapons,” she said with a smile, “but they should be used to deliver bubble tea.”"

China is too weak to invade Taiwan successfully - "invading an island nation like Taiwan is a very different proposition to Russia’s assault on Ukraine, which has mainly consisted of sending columns of tanks and troops across the land border of its neighbour, supported by artillery, missiles and fighter aircraft. The Ukrainian military, moreover, has only enjoyed a modest ability to defend itself from Russian aggression, as demonstrated by Kyiv’s constant appeals for Nato countries to provide more sophisticated weaponry and supplies. By contrast, Taiwan possesses its own well-trained air force, batteries of state-of-the-art US Patriot air defence systems which are more than a match for China’s new generation J-20 fighter aircraft, as well as boasting a highly motivated army. Taiwan is not Ukraine, and the Chinese military is a long way from being able to mount the type of large scale, and complex, amphibious landing operation that would be necessary to take control of the island. For, despite the vast sums the Chinese Communist Party has spent developing its forces, the country is still playing catch-up in terms of acquiring the strength to challenge America’s military supremacy. The development of China’s two new aircraft carriers is a case in point. While naval powers like the US and Britain have been building this highly specialised military capability for the better part of a century, China only acquired its first carrier in 2012, and is still on a steep learning curve when it comes to making optimal use of them. Another important consideration is that the Chinese military has not been directly involved in a major war since the Korean conflict in the early 1950s, so it lacks the real-time war-fighting experience acquired by the US and its allies in combat theatres ranging from Afghanistan to the Falklands... From Taiwan’s perspective, the most likely threat to its survival is likely to come in the form of political instability similar to the domestic unrest that hastened the demise of democratic rule in Hong Kong. For this reason, many Taiwanese are more concerned about China’s constant efforts to subvert their democracy through support for pro-Beijing political activists and cyber attacks than the possibility of a full-scale Chinese invasion."
From 2022

America’s race to save Taiwan from China relies on friends and neighbours - "Yonaguni, which is part of Japan’s southern Okinawa prefecture, is also the closest territory to Taiwan that the United States, as a Japanese ally, can access – a factor that has become increasingly important as China ramps up its military pressure against Taiwan. Experts agree that US involvement in a war between China and Taiwan would be decisive – without American support it is unlikely that Taiwan would remain autonomous. However, thousands of miles away, the US would be at a disadvantage, unless it can make use of outposts in the region, including Yonaguni. It’s part of a broader militarisation effort that has swept across the Indo-Pacific, from Japan down to the Philippines, as the region prepares for the worst... Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi then provoked fury in Beijing after telling parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger a response from Tokyo. Shortly after, a Chinese diplomat in Japan intimated that she should be decapitated... the US decision to intervene would ultimately come down to three factors. The first would be how the conflict came about: how did China attack and what justification does it give? It’s likely that China will “characterise something Taiwan does as being politically provocative as an excuse to take action”, said Mr Schriver. Second, the US would closely follow how Taiwan responded in the first few days after the attack. “If Taiwan is not sufficiently resisting the attack and the invasion, if they’re making move to capitulate politically, because of how we’re posturing ourselves, in other words not on the island and not in an alliance, the first few days would be absolutely critical and would inform our decision making,” explained Mr Schriver. The final factor would come down to what else was happening around the world at the time and “how much are we stretched”... Gilbert Teodoro, the Philippines’ defence secretary... has said for years that the Philippines monitors “daily” for the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan... With its neighbours and partners preparing for the worst, Taiwan has also been building up its own defence capabilities. Earlier this year, Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s president, announced a £30bn supplementary defence budget to protect the country against the rising threat from China. It follows a previous announcement that Taiwan would be raising its defence spending to 3.3 per cent of GDP by next year with the goal of reaching 5 per cent by 2030. Approximately a third of the estimated £23.7bn budget is likely to go towards a new multi-layered air defence system known as the T-Dome, which Mr Lai announced earlier this year."

Kareem Rifai 🌐 on X - "Why is Beijing in such a panic? China knows that an American defense of Taiwan practically necessitates Japanese involvement. Without the use of US bases in Japan, US fighter/attack aircraft can't effectively participate in a cross-strait war.
For conflicts not involving Japan, the US needs permission from the Japanese government to engage its bases.  Japanese PM Takaichi said that a Taiwan invasion by China would be a "survival-threatening situation" last week. You can connect the dots!"
Robotbeat🗽 ➐ on X - "This. Look at any wargame of Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and typically the only scenarios where it goes well for China is if US are not allowed to use bases in Japan. That’s also why you also see the push to characterize US military bases in Japan as “imperialism.” Obvious psywar"

How China plans to land the world’s largest army on Taiwan - "China has one of the most active shipbuilding industries in the world. Experts estimate that its shipbuilding capacity is at least 200 times greater than the United States’, despite its much smaller military budget ($246bn in 2025 against $850bn). Today, China has an estimated 405 warships to the US Navy’s 295, and is on track to have at least 30 more by 2030. In fact, a recent report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) found that, while most of China’s defence firms had been losing revenue, the one area where revenue was rising was shipbuilding... Today, China’s defence priorities are mostly maritime. These include disputes over islands in the South China Sea and its claims over Taiwan, which is across a nearly 100-mile wide body of water... While the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has hundreds of warships, these alone would not be sufficient for an invasion of Taiwan, said Tom Shugart, a former US submarine officer and senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). He said: “There’s no question whatsoever that if you just look at the grey-painted PLA Navy amphibious assault shipping, it is nowhere near enough to do an invasion.” Instead, China has maximised its dual-use shipbuilding, where civilian vessels are kitted out with military technology. Since 2015, all civilian shipbuilders have been required to ensure that any new ships could be used by the military in the event of an emergency... Alexander Huang, the chairman of the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies, has spent the past 10 years simulating different ways China could attack Taiwan. Based on his research, he sees two possible paths. The first begins with a cyber attack as well as moves against critical infrastructure to “kill Taiwan’s communication control and command control systems”. This strategy would seek to “divide or weaken Taiwan for a swift victory”, said Mr Huang. The second starts with a “maritime quarantine”, which would gradually block Taiwan’s energy supply and communication networks, to cut the island off from the rest of the world. Unlike a blockade, which would be enforced by the military, a quarantine would use coastguard and civilian ships. As an island, Taiwan relies on imports for its energy and food, and a quarantine or blockade could be disastrous. Experts told The Telegraph that its current energy supply – which includes liquefied natural gas, renewable production and coal resources – could sustain the island for about 40 days. A major military operation against Taiwan would likely take four times as long, and, said Mr Huang, China would effectively “squeeze Taiwan until it surrenders”. Beijing has been practising this type of coercion for years. It has routinely deployed hundreds of ships and planes around Taiwan as part of its “grey zone” pressure – activities that fall short of open warfare but aim to demonstrate strength in the lead-up to an actual conflict... The Taiwan Strait is 110 miles wide, but with strong winds and high waves, it is a difficult body of water to navigate. Monsoons and typhoons – especially in summer – make it all the more treacherous... Even with the barges, some experts, including a former defence official who spoke to The Telegraph on the condition of anonymity, were sceptical of China’s ability to land troops on Taiwan. They believe that changing sea levels and commercial construction, among other factors, along Taiwan’s coast have made virtually all of the beaches untenable for a landing operation."

Taiwan’s £7.5tn secret weapon is disintegrating - "Every country in the world relies on these chips, including China, which despite threatening to “reunify” Taiwan by force, imports nearly half of the island’s semiconductors.  Economists warn that an invasion of Taiwan would cost the world’s economy £7.5tn – far more than the cost of the Russian invasion of Ukraine or the Covid-19 pandemic.  Analysts argue that this very fact would act as a key deterrence against Beijing following through on its threats, as China knows if it does invade, its economy would take a direct hit from the fallout.  Known as the “silicon shield”, the theory argues that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry offers it a de facto security blanket, which would stop China from invading – both because of its own dependency on the chips and the US’s, which could come to Taiwan’s defence... leading Taiwan companies within the semiconductor industry have been moving production sites to countries such as China and the US... Taiwan produces approximately 60 to 70 per cent of all the world’s semiconductors and more than 95 per cent of the advanced chips... Beijing’s increasingly hostile rhetoric towards Taiwan and its routine shows of force toward the island has spooked foreign governments and semiconductor customers.  Kharis Templeman, a research fellow on Taiwan at the US-based Hoover Institution, explained that the Covid-19 pandemic served as a wake-up call for many companies reliant on chips from Taiwan and had to scramble overnight when their supply was interrupted.  It offered an insight into what could happen if China launched an attack against Taiwan, which could result in the supply of chips being permanently cut off... TSMC has kept an insurance policy.  The company has made sure that only its mature chips will be manufactured overseas. The production of advanced chips will remain in Taiwan... Experts and those within the industry are also worried about Beijing’s habit of stealing innovations from other countries.  “First, they welcome your business. Second, they look at your technology. Third, they build a competitor that can beat you. Then, fourth, they kick you out of the country,” said the engineer."

Rutaso.Japan🇯🇵🐶 on X - "Your argument contains several major historical and legal inaccuracies. Here is a point-by-point rebuttal.
⸻
1. “🇹🇼Taiwan has always been an inseparable part of China.” This statement is historically false. For most of its history, Taiwan was
•an island inhabited by its indigenous peoples,
•later governed by Spain and the Netherlands,
•then ruled by the Zheng regime (effectively an independent state).
In other words, Taiwan spent far more time outside any Chinese rule than under it.
⸻
2. “The Yuan dynasty governed Taiwan.” The Yuan dynasty was the Mongol Empire, not a Chinese nation-state. If you claim “Yuan = China,” then Mongolia, large parts of Central Asia, and Korea would all become “ancient Chinese territories.” This logic collapses instantly.
⸻
3. “Qing ruled Taiwan for about 200 years, so it is Chinese.”  The Qing dynasty was a Manchu empire, not a Han Chinese state.  The fact that Taiwan was once governed by the Qing does not mean it was part of a continuous Chinese nation-state. Empires shift borders constantly. International law does not treat historical empires as evidence of eternal sovereignty.
⸻
4. “The Cairo Declaration returned Taiwan to China.” This is the most serious error. The Cairo Declaration:
•was not signed,
•was not ratified,
•was not a treaty,
•and therefore has zero binding force under international law.
It was a political statement — nothing more. China is one of the few governments that pretends it has legal weight.
⸻
5. The legally binding decision came from the San Francisco Peace Treaty (1951). This is the decisive point in international law. The treaty states only: Japan renounces sovereignty over Taiwan. It does not say Taiwan belongs to China. Not once. Not anywhere. This means the final status of Taiwan was left undetermined. China’s sovereignty over Taiwan has never been legally confirmed.
⸻
6. “The PRC replaced the ROC in the UN, therefore Taiwan is China.” Another major misunderstanding. UN Resolution 2758 dealt with China’s representation, not territorial sovereignty. It did not declare that Taiwan is part of the PRC. It did not settle the sovereignty issue. It only said: “Who represents China at the UN?” This has no legal effect on Taiwan’s political status.
⸻
Your claims rely on
•historical distortion,
•misuse of international law, and
•political narratives presented as facts.
From a historical and legal perspective, Taiwan has never been confirmed as part of the PRC."

China Building Military on 'Scale Not Seen Since WWII:' US Admiral - "China's rapid military build-up is more expansive than anything seen since World War II, which means it's on track with its 2027 goal to be ready for a Taiwan invasion, said US Navy Adm. John Aquilino.  "All indications point to the PLA meeting President Xi Jinping's directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027," Aquilino wrote in a testimony to the US Armed Services House Committee.  "Furthermore, the PLA's actions indicate their ability to meet Xi's preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed," added the admiral, the outgoing head of the US Indo-Pacific Command... Aquilino wrote in his testimony that of the three main US concerns in the region — Russia, China, and North Korea — China is the "only country that has the capability, capacity, and intent to upend the international order.""
Time to double down on diversity, because it makes the US military stronger

U.S. Deterrence in Taiwan Is Failing - "“My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan wrote in a January memo to officers in the Air Mobility Command. The memo, which promptly leaked to reporters, warned that the United States and China were barreling toward a conflict over Taiwan. The U.S. Defense Department quickly distanced itself from Minihan’s blunt assessment. Yet the general wasn’t saying anything in private that military and civilian officials weren’t already saying in public...   In 1972, Chinese leader Mao Zedong told U.S. President Richard Nixon that Beijing could wait 100 years to reclaim Taiwan. China’s current leader, Xi Jinping, is not so patient. He has said the island’s awkward status cannot be passed from generation to generation; he has reportedly ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for action by 2027... Recent investments aside, the United States reportedly lacks enough anti-ship missiles and other munitions to blunt the first Chinese attack, let alone keep fighting after a few days or weeks of high-intensity combat. Amphibious ships, attack submarines, and other critical platforms are all too scarce. Rapidly surging production of any of these capabilities is difficult, thanks to decades of disinvestment in the defense industrial base—and because even now, defense spending is roughly as low, relative to GDP, as at any time since World War II. As aging ships, planes, and submarines are retired in the late 2020s, in fact, U.S. firepower in the Western Pacific will decline, just as China’s current military reforms reach fruition"
Left wingers still claim the US spends too much on defense

War Game Finds U.S., Taiwan Can Defend Against a Chinese Invasion - WSJ - "But the cost would be high: Taiwan’s economy would be shattered, and the U.S. military so battered that it would take years to rebuild, with repercussions for America’s global power."

Taiwan's Army Is a Hollow Shell After the End of Conscription From 2020