The Anti-Productive Crisis in US Universities (aka "Most College Degrees Don’t Pay Off") - "The primary function of universities is to educate skilled labor. Within universities, skills are esteemed mainly by awarded degrees or titles and the prestige of the awarder. Outside universities, skills are esteemed mainly by pay, which in the private sector is tied mostly to economic value added. The most striking evidence of the huge productive/unproductive divide in U.S. tertiary education is the vast difference in discounted net returns—net present value or NPV—on educational investment by field of specialization. Here is a chart of median NPV by college major compiled by the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP) using data from the U.S. Department of Education’s College Scorecard. (While FREOPP calls it ROI, the values correspond to NPV calculated at a three percent real discount rate as excess over the expected non-college alternative). The general pattern is clear. The economy values technical skills in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM), as well as medicine and business, far more than it values traditional liberal arts. This extends to blue-collar technical skills, such as vehicle maintenance and repair, precision metalworking, HVAC technology, and electrical and power transmission installation—their median NPV is over $300,000. The differences are even more striking when we take dispersion into account. The mean returns are much higher for technical skills and the odds of negative returns much lower... Worse, students are disproportionately concentrated in less-valued majors. By FREOPP measures, three in ten undergrads are likely to earn negative financial returns on their investments. Returns to master’s degrees are even more fraught, with 43 percent likely to be negative and 15 percent sacrificing over $200,000. While even the losers may gain non-pecuniary advantages in leisure and satisfaction, the net benefits are concentrated among children from wealthier families who can better subsidize their lifestyles... the general trends seem bound to persist and worsen...
most young grads have high expectations, prodded in part by large student debt, and their demand for jobs needing a liberal arts degree greatly exceeds the supply. Naturally, they favor policies inclined to raise their net returns. These include:
1. cancellation of student debt.
2. more explicit or implicit quotas for female, black, and/or Hispanic hires since new liberal arts grads are disproportionately female, black, and/or black compared to older, more experienced employees.
3. expansion of “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) programs and HR offices that will enforce (ii) and open up new, prestigious opportunities in training and enforcement.
4. expansion of training and enforcement to cover alleged non-binary discrimination, as the older generation is mostly clueless or dismissive about any letters beyond LGB...
youth are particularly hungry to frame their self-interest as morally pure causes, without realizing the many ways that virtue interweaves with vice. This helps explain the spiritual appeal in universities of many woke/DEI/multi-gender causes. The closest precedent is the way the prolonged draft of college-age students during the Vietnam War helped fuel ardently leftist anti-war sentiment, with traces visible in high Boomer participation at recent No Kings protests... Liberal arts academics long had a crucial edge in curating the huge mass of literature on social interactions, encompassing fact and fiction, prose and poetry, and records of all sorts. They knew what to look for and how to summarize key findings. The internet made it vastly easier for people to tap old summaries on their own. That recast the academic incentives similarly to how photography recast the incentives for artistic painting. Down with realism; be surrealist or anti-realist. Exaggerate the shortcomings of Western civilization until it looks reactionary; exaggerate the merits of other civilizations until they look progressive. Belittle the scientific revolution, technological progress, and the institutions needed to sustain them; bemoan the illusory paradises they supplanted and forecast mass extinction. Twist every achievement into failure or oppression. This is worse than non-productive. It is anti-productive. Any civilization that comprehensively applied their approach would quickly go down the tubes. Only Western civilization is sufficiently rich, tolerant, and introspective to toy with this type of self-hate and it too is tiring. This is tragic... What we see instead are gasps for political relevance, with proud attachment to every fashionably nihilistic cause that comes along. The more contradictory the principles the better, since there are some things so patently ridiculous that only modern liberal arts academics can fully embrace them. Queers for Palestine. Feminists for Islamism. Yesterday I read an allegation that Iran is trans-friendly as it insists on surgically altering homosexuals. Humanities and Social Sciences is morphing into the Inhumanities and Antisocial Sciences. I would like to dismiss these as death gasps, like the X-rays emitted when stars fall into a black hole. However, global history is less sanguine. According to Peter Turchin, evolutionary biologist turned evolutionary historian, “elite overproduction”—aka, young educated elites famished for elite jobs—often is a key driver of political crisis, especially when accompanied by rising wealth inequality and fraying civil norms. He recently pointed to AI, government downsizing, and dismantling of DEI as accelerants to young elite resentment. Furthermore, the anti-productive sectors have partially colonized the productive sectors. The overheads charged by universities on federal STEM or healthcare grants surely leak to other divisions as the levels are high and the accounting opaque. DEI mandates explicitly trade off professional merit against preferred genetic phenotypes or ethnic backgrounds. Woke struggle sessions divert research attention. Productive university divisions best get out of the way"
The Kobeissi Letter on X - "The US college underemployment rate is at crisis levels: The underemployment rate for recent college graduates is up to 42.5%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic peak. This means nearly half of all recent graduates are working jobs that do not require a college degree. The rate also matches the levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. Furthermore, 52.0% of all college graduates are underemployed upon initial entry into the labor market. Even 10 years after graduation, 45.0% of college graduates remain underemployed. Criminal justice majors have the highest underemployment rate at 67.2%, followed by performing arts at 62.3%, medical technicians at 57.9%, liberal arts at 56.5%, and anthropology at 55.9%. Americans are paying more than ever for a degree that no longer guarantees the career it promises."
Hundreds of ‘Mickey Mouse’ courses offered by UK universities - "British universities have offered nearly 800 “Mickey Mouse” courses since 2022, including bushcraft and a net zero bootcamp. More than 27,000 students have been enroled on these courses across the country, according to new analysis. The TaxPayers’ Alliance (TPA) identified 787 courses offered by British universities, with the “wokest” options including a master’s in “climate justice” and a degree in “race, education and decolonial thought”. The universities alleged to have the most “rip-off” courses were Buckinghamshire New University and Nottingham Trent University, with two Russell Group members also in the top 10... The top 10 “wokest” offerings also featured a master’s in “climate justice” at Glasgow Caledonian University, which is no longer accepting applicants, and a course in “race, education and decolonial thought” at Leeds Beckett University. Other “woke” courses highlighted by the TPA included a master’s in “workplace health and wellbeing” at Nottingham University and an advanced degree in “gender, sexuality and culture” at the University of Manchester, both members of the elite Russell Group. The think tank also identified a string of “hobby” courses, including five linked to esports at various institutions and a master’s in “outdoor and experiential learning”, where students can specialise in “bushcraft”, at the University of Cumbria... Taxpayers effectively subsidise tuition fees that are not paid upfront because students who take out a government loan don’t start paying it off until they earn a certain amount, and the debt is written off completely if it is not cleared after a set period of time. Other “Mickey Mouse” courses identified by the TPA included a degree in the “traditions of yoga and meditation” at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London, and a master’s in “contemporary identities” at the University of Bristol, another member of the Russell Group. The Bristol course is no longer on offer... “These Mickey Mouse subjects are essentially a state-sponsored vanity project where universities fill their coffers while the public picks up the tab for loans which will never come close to being fully repaid. “We need to stop funding hobby courses and start prioritising rigorous subjects that actually boost the economy and deliver value for money.” Laura Trott, the shadow education secretary, said: “Young people are being badly let down by Labour, with youth unemployment rising and opportunities narrowing. “The Conservatives would end ‘debt trap’ degrees that give students a shoddy deal, leave them saddled with debt, and fail to prepare them for the workplace. Instead, we would double apprenticeships so young people have a genuine choice when they leave school.”"
Clearly, conservatives hate learning and education and want people kept ignorant
Only 27 percent of college grads have a job related to their major - The Washington Post - "a significant number of college grads appear to be underemployed: In 2010, only 62 percent of U.S. college graduates had a job that required a college degree... The chances of finding a job related to your degree or major go up a few points if you move to a big city"
From 2013
My criticism of university sparked a backlash. I stand by it – young people deserve better - "A blanket reduction in the amount of loan funding would be a crude and inefficient way of proceeding. It would be better for the Department for Education to vet university courses according to content, excellence of teaching and the subsequent success of students who take them. The majority of university courses would pass this test. But those that failed it would cease to be eligible for student loans. That would surely cause the number of students applying for these courses to plummet. Moreover, some of these courses would cease to be offered and some universities might cease to exist. That would be no bad thing... Another strand of criticism is the argument that we shouldn’t judge the benefit of universities solely by reference to the effect that degrees have on employability and future earnings. I have always agreed with this. Again, this partly comes down to funding. If a young person wants to spend three years studying Chinese medieval wall coverings, or media studies, or whatever – or indeed to get into university and then do nothing at all – that is a legitimate life choice. But it is not legitimate to expect the taxpayer to fund it... Our system of higher education needs radical change. We have sleepwalked into the current situation through a mixture of delusion, wishful thinking and the unenlightened self-interest of some educational institutions and their administrators. This comes at enormous financial cost. Student debt is currently estimated to total about £270bn, or about 10pc of GDP. More importantly, this charade brings a terrific human cost in wasted time. Our young people deserve much better."
Left wingers demand university be made free, but they don't account for the biggest cost: opportunity cost
How Starmer’s immigration crackdown could kill off the Mickey Mouse degree - "In 1999, Tony Blair pledged that half of young people would go to university. The sector mushroomed, producing a rash of so-called “Mickey Mouse degrees” – those useless, and now very expensive, courses that result in low salaries and few job prospects... Sir Keir Starmer announced in May that universities would face tighter restrictions on recruiting overseas students as part of a wider push to reduce immigration... Eyebrows have been raised at the merit of the courses for which universities charge full price, not least at media courses with modules on Disney, which would leave a typical graduate earning below minimum wage for five years... The crackdown on universities’ reliance on overseas students comes a year after Rishi Sunak pledged to scrap “rip-off” degrees that the former prime minister claimed “make students poorer”, in favour of more funding for high-skill apprenticeships."
Clearly, since education makes society better off, all university courses need to be free
What are Mickey Mouse degrees and could they damage your career prospects? - "Adzuna’s research revealed that photography degrees offer the worst value for money, as graduates earn an average salary of £23,030 five years after graduation. It was followed by courses in criminology (£23,420), geography (£23,445), and translation (£23,498)... Adzuna’s figures showed 36pc of university degrees do not lead to an average salary above £30,000 within five years – slightly improved from last year’s 40pc."
Over 4 million Gen Zers are jobless—and experts blame colleges for ‘worthless degrees’ and a system of broken promises for the rising number of NEETs | Fortune - "A British podcaster went so far as to call the situation a “catastrophe”—and cast a broad-stroke blame on the education system. “In many cases, young people have been sent off to universities for worthless degrees, which have produced nothing for them at all,” the political commentator, journalist, and author Peter Hitchens said of colleges last week. “And they would be much better off if they apprenticed to plumbers or electricians; they would be able to look forward to a much more abundant and satisfying life.”"
Meme - CR Wiley: "Schools are keeping their doors open by depending on girls going deeply into debt. Girls are getting scammed in the name of empowerment."
Cole Tenold @coletenold: "Interesting question - your assumption is correct, I dug into it with a thread, I'm curious your thoughts:"
Cole Tenold on X - "Women hold ~2/3 of the $1.8 Trillion outstanding student debt in the US, per https://t.co/Uw4JHFwlbf estimate. Let’s dig into why: 🧵"
Is College Worth It? A Comprehensive Return on Investment Analysis - "For students who graduate on time, the median bachelor’s degree has a net ROI of $306,000. But some degrees are worth millions of dollars, while others have no net financial value at all... Four in five engineering programs have ROI above $500,000, but the same is true for just 1% of psychology programs. Elite schools such as Caltech and Penn dominate the list of highest ROI programs. But attending an elite school is not a golden ticket; some Ivy League degrees have negative ROI... Students constantly hear the refrain that they must attend college to be successful. As a result, two-thirds of high school graduates enroll in college the following autumn. Almost all students cite getting a better job as a primary reason for attending college... Most bachelor’s degree programs in engineering, computer science, economics, and nursing increase lifetime earnings by $500,000 or more, even after subtracting the costs of college. But most programs in fields such as art, music, philosophy, religion, and psychology leave students financially worse off than if they had never gone to college at all. Differences in ROI between programs can amount to millions of dollars. Financially, the best program anywhere in the nation is the computer science major at the California Institute of Technology. Students in this program can expect an ROI of over $4.4 million. But 28% of programs have negative returns on investment, meaning that students will be financially worse off for having participated in those programs... These measures of ROI also don’t incorporate externalities to college education. College degrees have both social benefits and social costs... earnings immediately after graduation are a reasonable guide to what a student will earn relative to peers in other programs. In other words, the ranking of programs changes little throughout life. Engineering and computer science will almost always be lucrative majors, while art and religion will usually disappoint those in search of large paychecks. The correlation between earnings at age 25 and earnings at age 45 for the 30,000 programs in the Scorecard dataset is 0.94... A surprisingly high 31% of programs in life sciences and biology have negative ROI. The most likely explanation is that many students pursue these majors in preparation for a lucrative graduate degree in medicine. The ROI analysis in this report considers returns on the bachelor’s degree alone. If biology students don’t use their degree as a springboard for medical school, they will typically see disappointing returns... Students in doubt about their ability to finish college on time (or finish college at all) should consider not just the financial value of various degrees, but their chance of on-time graduation. Some schools, such as Pomona College and Georgetown University, have on-time graduation rates above 90%. But nearly a quarter of schools in the Scorecard dataset have an on-time graduation rate below 20%... On average, the higher payoff from more expensive schools is enough to make the heftier tuition bill worth it. But there are exceptions. Twenty-eight percent of programs at the most expensive schools still have negative ROI. High tuition is therefore no guarantee of quality, as consumers sometimes assume. Major is the most important factor... Even in the arts, there are diamonds in the rough. Michigan Technological University operates a program in drama and stagecraft that delivers ROI of $795,000. Music students at the University of Texas-Austin can expect an ROI of $586,000. Two philosophy programs (the University of Pennsylvania and Dartmouth College) each have an ROI above $1 million."
86% of U.S. workers with education debt said their degree wasn’t worth the toll that student loans has had on their overall well-being - "Further, 53% of workers said that knowing they would incur additional debt has prevented them from pursuing more education, per CNBC. Over two-thirds of student loan borrowers feel their education hasn't justified the toll their debt has taken on their overall well-being, according to a new survey."
Clearly the solution is free education and taxpayer grants
Meme - i/o @eyeslasho: "What's your major?"
"Fate of 2009-era student debt. Percent of original loan amount remaining
Women *100% in 2009 and 98%ish in 2024ish*
Men *100% in 2009 and 70% in 2024-ish*"
Tom O'Donnell on X - "Government exists in large part to steal from men to give to women."
Crixus on X - "Those Lesbian West African Pottery degrees don't seem to pay well."
Clearly, proof that capitalism has failed and student loans are structurally sexist
Meme - "HELLO, I'M YOUR GUARDIAN ANGEL" "REALLY?" "AND I'M HERE TO-" "WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN?! I TOOK OUT HUGE STUDENT LOANS AND YOU DIDN'T STOP ME?! I MAJORED IN ART HISTORY AND YOU JUST LET IT HAPPEN...
Half of College Grads Are Working Jobs That Don’t Use Their Degrees - "Of the graduates in non-college-level jobs a year after leaving college, the vast majority remained underemployed a decade later, according to researchers at labor analytics firm Burning Glass Institute and nonprofit Strada Education Foundation, which analyzed the résumés of workers who graduated between 2012 and 2021. More than any other factor analyzed—including race, gender and choice of university—what a person studies determines their odds of getting on a college-level career track. Internships are also critical... Once a graduate’s first two or three jobs are clustered around one industry or set of tasks—say, an aspiring marketing strategist who takes a couple of food-service supervisor roles to pay the bills—it’s harder to hop onto another career lane, said Joseph Fuller, a management professor who co-leads the Managing the Future of Work initiative at Harvard Business School. Thanks to the way online hiring algorithms scan applicants’ work histories, the next role that person is now most likely to be considered for is a store manager position, while a break with a corporate marketing department is even less likely. Contrary to conventional wisdom, not all degrees in science, technology, engineering and math, or STEM, disciplines are a sure bet to landing a job that reflects a college education, the study found. Nearly half of people who majored in biology and biomedical sciences—47%—remained underemployed five years after graduating. Likewise, business majors less focused on quantitative skills, such as marketing and human resources, were twice as likely to be underemployed than those with math-intensive business degrees, such as accounting or finance. The data cover graduates who didn’t get master’s or other advanced degrees after college... Securing even one internship during college significantly improves the odds of landing a college-level job upon graduation, according to the study. For humanities and psychology majors, the rate of underemployment five years after college dropped by a quarter with an internship. Among social-sciences majors, it fell by 40%."
More than half of college graduates are working in jobs that don't require degrees - "Another study from the HEA Group found that a decade after enrolling in college, attendees of 1 in 4 higher education programs are earning less than $32,000 — the median annual income for high school graduates... The single greatest determinant of post-graduation employment prospects, according to the study, is a college student's major, or primary focus of study. It can be even more important than the type of institution one attends. Choosing a career-oriented major like nursing, as opposed to criminal justice, gives graduates a better shot at actually using, and getting compensated for the skills they acquire. Just 23% of nursing students are underemployed, versus 68% of criminal justice majors."
Hamza Alsamraee on X - "I’m a math major at Stanford. I’ll be the first to tell you I’ll never solve a partial differential equation for work. But why is that the standard we judge the value of learning by? This whole idea of “it’s not applicable in the real world” is silly. College isn’t a vocational training program. It’s meant to provoke your curiosity. To expand your horizons If you want “real world” learning, go to a bootcamp/trade school etc. There’s nothing wrong with that. But trying to turn college into trade school is stupid. Besides, all the “useless” stuff you learn in school teaches you how to think. How to analyze problems. How to weigh different perspectives. It’s not a surprise the smartest people I’ve met in business also happen to have a lot of “useless” knowledge. It’s because curiosity shouldn’t be constrained by capitalist pursuit. Paradoxically, if you let capitalism restrain what you learn, you end up losing. You end up being a very non interesting person with little ability to think laterally. Soon, an AI agent will be able to outperform you. Go read about philosophy, math, history, whatever intrigues you. Who gives a damn if it makes you money. It’ll make you human"
Clearly, all learning is good, so everyone should take on crippling debt even if they'll never be able to pay it back, and the reason some degrees attract smarter students and have more value added than others is due to bias
Opinion: Sincerely, an English major - "English has remained the most regretted major in America according to a survey by “Trade Schools, Colleges and Universities” which showed 54.3% of surveyed English graduates were not satisfied with their choice."
There was an article I read where this English/literature graduate was going to give a talk to some students and considered telling them how hard it was having studied English. Then she decided not to tell them the truth so they would be tricked into studying English without making an informed decision, because her husband reminded her of how rich her life had been due to studying it, and she decided she wouldn't change a thing (both Gemini and Grok were unhelpful)
Ministers could limit student numbers on lower-earning arts degrees in England - "In 2018, research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies funded by the DfE showed that male creative arts graduates earned less on average at the age of 29 than people with similar backgrounds who did not go to university at all."
