A pertinent question in the wake of the Jesse Strang (Jesse Van Rootselaar) Tumbler Ridge mass shooting is whether trans people are overrepresented as mass shooters, which would indicate that this is a population at elevated risk of committing violence (we already know they are at elevated risk of committing sex crimes).
Unsurprisingly, the "fact checkers" assure us that this claim is misinformation. For example, FactCheck.org goes all the way back to 2013 to make its claim. Yet, in 2013, trans mania was not as widespread as it is today (this was before gay marriage got rammed through) and so we would expect there to have been fewer trans mass shooters.
So I decided to look at more recent years to see what the numbers said.
The Williams Institute at UCLA says that 0.6% of those aged 13 and older are trans, and in this number they include the "gender nonconforming".
In 2024, the FBI said there were 24 active shooter incidents and in 2023, 48. In 2022, there were 50 and in 2021 there were 61. There were 40 in 2020 and 30 in 2019, and 27 in 2018.
So we have 280 in total from 2018-2024 (7 years).
If trans people were represented in active shooter incidents at the same rate as in the general population, we would expect there to have been 1.68 trans people involved in active shooter incidents in this time (assuming 1 perpetrator per active shooter incident; there were 333 incidents and 345 shooters between 2000 and 2019 so this is a pretty robust assumption)
Here're the trans or non binary perpetrators of mass shootings between 2018 and 2024 that I could find:
1) September 2018 - Snochia Moseley (MTF)
2) May 2019 - Alec McKinney/Maya Elizabeth McKinney (together with Devon Michael Erickson) (MTF)
3) November 2022 - Anderson Lee Aldrich (non-binary)
4) March 2023 - Aiden Hale (Audrey Elizabeth Hale) (FTM)
The FBI data for 2025 active shooter incidents is not out yet, but consider that in August 2025 we had Robin M. Westman (Robert Westman) (MTF).
This is just the list of officially "confirmed" trans or non binary perpetrators. I am not including cases like Dylan Butler or Natalie "Samantha" Rupnow, even if The National Desk reports that "Butler identified as "genderfluid" and used "he/they" pronouns, according to his TikTok videos", so in reality trans and non binary people are going to be even more overrepresented.
So trans and non binary people were definitely overrepresented from 2018-2024, even if the absolute numbers are small. Even if we count Alec McKinney as half a shooter due to its collaboration with Devon Michael Erickson, we still get 3.5 trans shooters vs the expected 1.68, an overrepresentation of 108% (counting Alec McKinney as a full shooter, it's 138% overrepresentation). Another way of looking at it: if trans people were shooters in proportion to their population, you would expect 1.25% of the population to be trans or non binary (or 1.4% if you count Alec McKinney as a full shooter).
