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Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Links - 18th September 2024 (2 - China's 'Peaceful' Rise)

Xi Jinping Is Preparing China for War - "American observers seem to believe that the sweeping purge was designed to target widespread corruption in the senior ranks of the People's Liberation Army. Chris Buckley of the New York Times, for example, called the personnel changes "an unexplained shake-up that suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct."  Yet, this explanation is partial at best. "Almost all the senior generals had good reputations before their promotion," said a well-placed source speaking anonymously to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post. Indeed, while the PLA's senior officer corps is known to be thoroughly corrupt, Xi Jinping has during his decade-long rule generally tolerated corruption among supporters... The more likely explanation for the purge lies elsewhere: From the beginning of this year, Xi Jinping has been purging the military of officers opposed to going to war—because he's preparing for one.  Xi Jinping these days often talks about war, and his regime is fast preparing for one. The Communist Party is implementing the largest military buildup since the Second World War. It's simultaneously trying to sanctions-proof the country, stockpile grain and other commodities, survey America for strikes and sabotage, and mobilize China's civilians for battle. The military indoctrination of children begins during the first years of school. And why would Xi Jinping opt for going into battle? China is failing fast, and Xi is being blamed. His Maoist-inspired policies, which favor state enterprises over private and foreign businesses, are making severe problems even worse. Especially troubling is Xi relentless cutting of China's links with other countries... During Xi's rule, Beijing has periodically made unprovoked threats to kill Americans by the hundreds of millions and, beginning in 2021, Japanese and Australians as well. Moreover, China has also warned it will nuke Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing considers its 34th province... That so many have been purged reflects disobedience in the ranks expressed as a reluctance to go to war. The regime handed down a death sentence this year to former Air Force General Liu Yazhou due to his continued opposition to an invasion of Taiwan, and he is not alone. "The image that Xi Jinping is firmly in command of the Communist Party is belied by increasing evidence of instability in the ranks of China's military leadership," said Charles Burton of the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute. "The extraordinary purge of both the commander and political commissar of the Rocket Force suggests there is serious discontent within China's military with Xi Jinping." Burton, a former Canadian diplomat posted in Beijing, points to Xi's failing domestic and foreign policies, especially the "cratering economy." "They have got some problems," said President Joe Biden about China earlier this month. "That's not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things.""

China's Xi tells military to deepen war, combat planning, Xinhua reports - "Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday urged the military to deepen war and combat planning to increase the chances of victory in actual combat, Xinhua news agency said, renewing his call to troops to safeguard China's sovereignty and territory."

China is building long-range cruise missiles launched from ship containers - "China is likely to build a variant of its YJ-18 long-range cruise missile that could be fired from shipping containers. This variant would be called the YJ-18C. This new weapon could help China turn its fleet of freighters into potential warships, and commercial ports would then become missile bases."

China warns World War Three could be triggered 'at any time - "An article in the state-backed Global Times newspaper on Tuesday said that 'collusion' between the US and Taiwan was so 'audacious' that the situation 'has almost lost any room for manoeuvre, teetering on the edge of a face-off.'"
From 2021. It's always evil foreign powers' fault

Hua Chunying 华春莹 on X - "We cannot allow the #US to take itself as "world policeman" and treat other countries as #GeorgeFloyd whom it can bully and strangle at will."
Kmele 🖐 on X - "...because Nancy Pelosi took a trip to Taiwan."
Fabrizio Bartoloni on X - "We cannot allow China to treat other countries as protesters in Tien'anmen. This is not 1989 anymore."
When your enemies know how to use your divisions against you

Playing the Trump card in Canadian elections - "The CCP also played the Trump card explicitly, calling O’Toole “Canada’s Donald Trump,” mocking his name, which connotes “vomit” in Mandarin, and accusing him, like Trump, of being hostile to the local Chinese community. Both Chinese-language social media, where Chinese-Canadians get much of their news, and Canada’s Chinese-language press are largely controlled by the CCP. The CCP’s attacks worked, Justice Marie-Josée Hogue’s Foreign Interference Commission has confirmed. The CCP played a significant role by intervening when the Conservatives led in the polls. Correlation is not causation but after its intervention the tide did turn in favour of the Liberals. Yet an even greater Trump-related benefit to the Liberals came implicitly, courtesy O’Toole himself, who decided to keep Canadians in the dark about the CCP’s interference in their electoral system, largely to avoid being tainted with a Trump brush. In doing so, O’Toole not only undermined Canadian democracy, he threw his own MPs under the bus and destroyed any possibility that Canadian voters — if presented with evidence China was interfering in favour of the Liberals — might decide to throw the CCP’s party of choice out of office. In damning testimony before the Hogue Commission, O’Toole admitted that his “candidates and volunteers were very worried about the level of foreign interference” and admitted he made a conscious decision to stay mum. “I was very … worried that if we were suggesting some seats were lost or that our electoral fortunes were being impacted by a foreign actor … some people in the political realm would suggest I was following the approach of the United States and that the election was stolen and all these sorts of things. That’s why I never mentioned it … while I was leader of the party,” he testified. He admitted his fear was augmented because whenever Conservatives criticized China “the prime minister and the government would respond by saying, ‘Make sure you’re not perpetuating anti-Asian hate or discrimination.’ It was that inadvertent chill … that led me not to say anything publicly.” O’Toole now regrets his silence, particularly because, as he puts it, the “approach the government was taking complemented … narratives that were being advanced by … China and its agents in Canada. And I think in the election, we saw that explode into a campaign of misinformation on social media, but also in in-person miscommunication to intimidate voters, to mislead voters with respect to me, with respect to certain candidates and to our policies in general.” Rather than go public, O’Toole testified, “We worked with the mechanisms, we worked with SITE” (the Security and Intelligence Threats to Election task force), i.e. the web of committees, agencies and task forces — some 15 in total — the Trudeau government set up to monitor election interference and other election-related illegalities. Those committees kept reassuring the Conservatives nothing was amiss. Yet the Conservatives knew these bodies, which all reported directly or indirectly to Trudeau, were powerless to take any action without his agreement. Unsurprisingly, complaining to Trudeau came to naught. A CSIS whistleblower finally did expose SITE’s failures. That led to Justice Hogue’s commission and its eventual confirmation of what the Conservatives had known but never revealed: that the CCP’s election interference may have led to seats being stolen in the 2021 election. In the next federal election, expected in 2025, both Trudeau and the CCP may well employ the same Trump-and-racism playbook"

Meme - Charlie Kirk @charliekirk11: "It is time to fully block TikTok from our country."
Charlie Kirk @charliekirk11: "Ban TikTok."
Charlie Kirk @charliekirk11: "Biden just banned TikTok. It won't go into law till January. He is so controlled by the tech companies that he is risking his support with Gen Z. Younger voters won't forget this."

Opinion: Ignoring Chinese spying has made Canada the weak link among Western allies - "Former Hydro-Quebec employee Yueshang Wang, arrested in 2022 for allegedly stealing electric-vehicle battery secrets on behalf of Chinese institutions, remains the only person ever charged with economic espionage under the federal government’s 2001 Security of Information Act. He’s still awaiting trial. And now we all know that Canada allowed a pair of obvious spies to leave the country after they were caught red-handed opening the doors of Canada’s highest-security biohazard lab to Chinese interests. The story of Xiangguo Qiu and Keding Cheng — two scientists at the National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg who were secretly collaborating with multiple Chinese institutions, including participating in various “talent” programs — was revealed in the trove of Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) reports and other classified material released by Ottawa in February. With both Qiu and Cheng now living in China under new names, the dossier serves as a permanent reminder of how lightly Canada takes the threat of espionage, certainly in comparison with the U.S. This cross-border discrepancy is partly explained by serious flaws in Canada’s legal system. As an intelligence-gathering service, CSIS is best placed to identify crimes of espionage. But it has no actual law enforcement powers. It can share its findings with the RCMP, but this relationship is complicated by the fact CSIS intel is not admissible in court since the agency refuses to disclose its sources and methods... As both an intelligence gathering and law enforcement agency, the FBI does not face this structural problem: it collects evidence for the explicit purpose of using it in court. And its track record of espionage convictions testifies to its success in doing so. Beyond the gap in Canadian law enforcement capabilities, Gurski notes, Canada also lacks a “culture of national security.” Politicians and bureaucrats on the receiving end of CSIS reports habitually discount or ignore the evidence because they put a low priority on such matters. This is one of the main takeaways from the ongoing foreign interference inquiry in Ottawa. Repeated CSIS warnings to federal officials about Chinese election meddling were not acted upon because no one thought it was very important. Such a blasé attitude towards national security is not just embarrassing, it is also having a real impact on Canada’s most important international relationships. “Everything in these documents reinforces the perception that Canada is the weak link,” says Christian Leuprecht, a national security expert at Queen’s University and the Royal Military College. Evidence that Canada’s highest-security biohazard lab was exploited by federally-employed Chinese agents strikes to the very core of our status as a reliable and competent partner. If we can’t keep our own secrets safe, why would other countries trust us with theirs?"

Jamie Sarkonak: Authorities shrug as risky Chinese security tech watches over Canada - "When it comes to national security, it should be common sense not to depend on equipment originating from a foreign adversary. A good lot of western countries appear to have this sense, which has caused a headache — and some bad PR — for Chinese security camera manufacturer Hikvision. The company, which created ethnicity-detection technology to help advance China’s Uyghur containment project/ genocide in the western province of Xinjiang, is the subject of a growing number of sanctions worldwide, except, of course, in Ottawa. The European Union parliament removed its Hikvision cameras in 2021. In 2022, it was banned from the Danish capital region, and the United States prohibited federal dollars from being spent on its products and restricted them from being used in ways that could impact national security. The United Kingdom joined the U.S. around that time, banning all new Hikvision installations on government sites; in 2023, this was expanded into a plan to remove all existing cameras (though execution has been sluggish , as they remain online at half of the government sites that originally had them installed). Australia announced it would be removing Hikvision from its defence sites in 2023, and Quebec banned the cameras from government sites outright that same year. This year, the Dutch announced a Hikvision phase-out in their capital... The reasons for giving Hikvision the cold shoulder are quite simple. One, it looks bad, and arguably does bad, to give business to a company aiding the concentration camp internment of minorities deep in the Eurasian Steppe. Two, Hikvision, like any company from China, has no legal way to prevent the government from peering through potential system keyholes and observing … well, anything. You can imagine the strategic advantage that comes with having access to countless security camera feeds of public and private property all over the world... while this country has been pretty quiet on the question of Hikvision — like it was on the question of Huawei, which was banned after a lengthy hum-haw period — we can glean that at least some departments consider the brand to present a problem, as pains have sometimes been taken to replace them. In the case of the PCO, which got rid of its Hikvision units in April, and Infrastructure Canada, which took “steps to decommission the camera and replace it” on March 14, the day Villemure submitted his question, the replacements appear to have been spurred by the Bloc. Perhaps that’s why the feds have been selling surplus Hikvision cameras online... For a country whose Parliament appears to be compromised to some unknown degree by foreign interests, it’s unsurprising that suspected foreign spyware falls low on the priority list. Just one more thing to clean up in 2025, I suppose."

Why Chinese flags have taken over lawn of Australia's Parliament House - "Pro-China protesters have swarmed the lawn at Parliament House, blocking out peaceful Tibetan activists as Anthony Albanese prepares to meet China's second most powerful leader."
If you suggest dual loyalty, you're racist.
Actually this might more accurately be said to be single loyalty - to China

Ex-ambassador says Canada approached China 'like beggars' - "“I frequently hear from Canadian companies who relay concerns of market constriction in China … policies that tend to favour domestic over foreign,” said the document. “They also complain of opaque regulations, cumbersome licensing requirements, onerous ownership requirements and fierce competition due to market dominance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs).”... China has banned Canadian beef since Canada announced a single case of atypical BSE, or mad-cow disease, in 2021, while heat-treated dried pet food was prohibited because of the presence in chicken of “highly pathogenic avian influenza.” In both cases, the World Organization for Animal Health says the products pose no human health risk. China does import pet food from other countries with HPAI chicken, suggesting the Canadian ban is “discrimination,” says the document. The briefing note also defends policies that have angered China, such as signing an investment accord with Taiwan, barring Chinese companies from supplying 5G mobile networks here, and restricting foreign investment in critical-mineral mining. In fact, China’s own restrictions on such investment are much more onerous, the document says. Likewise, China’s apparent objections to Canada requiring COVID testing for Chinese travellers earlier earned a slightly incredulous response. “Surprised you would raise this given China’s own measures,” said the note. “Can you explain why you imposed test requirements (and more) on inbound travellers but object when others do the same?”"
Damn protectionism in Western markets! China's protectionism is justified by the Century of Humiliation, of course!

China cracks down on hate speech against Japan - "almost all of China’s major online platforms announced, respectively, that they are cracking down on hate speech against Japan, following a deadly stabbing against a Japanese school bus... An unemployed 52-year-old Chinese man surnamed Zhou attacked the bus, resulting in non-life-threatening injuries to two Japanese nationals. Hu Youping, a female bus attendant, intervened to stop the attack but lost her life... The shocking attack was followed by both an outpouring of condolences and praise and an ugly hate speech against Japan in China. China’s leading internet companies have, respectively, launched a campaign against the extremist rhetoric within a short time. There is no publicly available information on whether the Chinese government, which closely scrutinizes the companies, was coordinating the campaign.  Commentators including Hu Xijin, the former editor of the Global Times newspaper, have warned that China “must avoid excessively exaggerating external challenges and hostility online, which turns extreme nationalism into a commodity of hating America and Japan, blaming most of China's issues on external factors.”
Ironic, given that the government was the top promoter of anti-Japanese hate speech and it's trying to whip up hatred of the US too

National Security Division, U.S. Dept of Justice on X - "Federal Jury Convicts New York Resident of Acting as a Covert Chinese Agent Defendant Pretended to Be Opposed to the Chinese Government So He Could Get Close to Prominent Activists Seeking to Bring Democracy, Reform and Human Rights to China 🔗:"
Brian in Pittsburgh on X - "Damn. This guy was a human rights activist and cofounder of a significant pro-democracy organization named for victims of the Tiananmen Square massacre. He was also an MSS spy reporting to the PRC on the activities of those who joined as far back as at least 2006."

China’s rulers are surprised by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz - "For much of this year the Biden-Trump contest was a boon for Chinese propagandists, allowing them to portray American democracy as a fight between two men past their cognitive prime, whose attacks were redolent of playground bickering. By bowing out Mr Biden has unsettled that narrative and encouraged some Chinese to wonder about their own system, in which Mr Xi, 71, appears set on remaining leader for life. Last month a blogger on Netease, a Chinese internet platform, wrote “for some people, the greatest contribution they can make to the party, the country and the people is to hand over power, step down from the stage and go home to play with their grandchildren”. The next sentence—“That’s right, I’m talking about you, Biden”—did not calm China’s censors, who scrubbed the post."
Richard Hanania on X - "China was surprised when Obama was elected because they bought the propaganda about how racist America was. American elite discourse is so anti-American that it gives China a sense of moral superiority."

The world according to Xi - "A lesser man than Xi Jinping might have found it uncomfortable. Meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow this week, China’s leader spoke of “peaceful co-existence and win-win co-operation”, while supping with somebody facing an international arrest warrant for war crimes. But Mr Xi is untroubled by trivial inconsistencies. He believes in the inexorable decline of the American-led world order, with its professed concern for rules and human rights. He aims to twist it into a more transactional system of deals between great powers. Do not underestimate the perils of this vision—or its appeal around the world. On Ukraine China has played an awkward hand ruthlessly and well. Its goals are subtle: to ensure Russia is subordinate but not so weak that Mr Putin’s regime implodes; to burnish its own credentials as a peacemaker in the eyes of the emerging world; and, with an eye on Taiwan, to undermine the perceived legitimacy of Western sanctions and military support as a tool of foreign policy. Mr Xi has cynically proposed a “peace plan” for Ukraine that would reward Russian aggression and which he knows Ukraine will not accept. It calls for “respecting the sovereignty of all countries”, but neglects to mention that Russia occupies more than a sixth of its neighbour... China’s approach is not improvised, but systematic and ideological. Deng Xiaoping urged China to “hide your capacities, bide your time”. But Mr Xi wants to reshape the post-1945 world order. China’s new slogans seek to borrow and subvert the normative language of the 20th century so that “multilateralism” becomes code for a world that ditches universal values and is run by balancing great-power interests. The “Global Security Initiative” is about opposing efforts to contain China’s military threat; the “Global Development Initiative” promotes China’s economic-growth model, which deals with autocratic states without imposing conditions. “Global Civilisation” argues that Western advocacy of universal human rights, in Xinjiang and elsewhere, is a new kind of colonialism... Yet the real point of Mr Xi’s foreign policy is to make the world safer for the Chinese Communist Party. Over time, its flaws will be hard to hide. A mesh of expedient bilateral relationships creates contradictions. China has backed Iran but chosen to ignore its ongoing nuclear escalation, which threatens China’s other clients in the region. In Ukraine any durable peace requires the consent of Ukrainians. It should also involve accountability for war crimes and guarantees against another attack. China objects to all three: it does not believe in democracy, human rights or constraining great powers—whether in Ukraine or Taiwan. Countries that face a direct security threat from China, such as India and Japan, will grow even warier. Indeed, wherever a country faces a powerful, aggressive neighbour, the principle that might is right means that it will have more to fear. Because China almost always backs ruling elites, however inept or cruel, its approach may eventually outrage ordinary people around the world. Until that moment, open societies will face a struggle over competing visions... America’s great insight in 1945 was that it could make itself more secure by binding itself to lasting alliances and common rules. That idealistic vision has been tarnished by decades of contact with reality, including in Iraq. But the Moscow summit reveals a worse alternative: a superpower that seeks influence without winning affection, power without trust and a global vision without universal human rights. Those who believe this will make the world a better place should think again."
Relentlessly blaming the West can only work for so long

Hundreds of US scientists accused of Chinese industrial espionage - "Just as the Biden administration has relaxed rules around Chinese influence on research and universities, alarms are being raised over the theft of American trade secrets... The National Institute of Health has revealed that it is investigating over 500 scientists and more than 90 institutions including universities for their alleged ties with Chinese Talent recruitment programs and the smuggling of US research and technology to the Chinese government. "
From 2021

Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 on X - "Aging dictator Xi Jinping forced every single Chinese Olympics athlete to assemble in a grand reception hall and applaud him on state television for twenty minutes. This was their Welcome Home celebration from the Paris Olympics. National Chinese state television broadcaster CCTV just aired the footage without commentary and then showed interviews with select stars who said Xi Jinping’s speech would inspire them to train even harder for the next Olympics.   China is going full North Korea"

Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 on X - "Chinese tennis star and OIympic gold medallist Qinwen Zheng forced to praise Xi Jinping on state television: ''This is a very important event in my life. President Xi mentioned my name. I am very happy.''  I feel horrible for her - She must remember what they did to Peng Shuai.   They even had her repeating Party slogans. ''Just as President Xi said, winning glory for the nation always surpasses personal honour ... I believe the 'China Spirit' in the New Era is to be higher, faster, and stronger within one's limits.''"

Alec Stapp on X - "China just announced export controls on a critical mineral used in >300 types of munitions. Currently, the US doesn’t mine this resource at all & imports 63% of supply from China. A domestic mining project that would fix this has been stuck in environmental review since 2016."
China Sends a Permitting Wake-Up Call - WSJ - "China announced export restrictions on antimony, a critical mineral in weapon systems and semiconductors.  Beijing isn’t coy about its motives. Restricting antimony exports, China’s commerce ministry says, is needed “to further protect China’s national security and interests and fulfil the nation’s international non-proliferation obligations.”  That’s the Chinese Communist Party’s way of reminding the West of its dependence on China for national defense. More than 300 types of munitions require antimony, and China accounts for about half of the world’s production. Russia and Tajikistan make up most of the rest. The U.S. doesn’t mine antimony and sources 63% of its imports from China.  But America needn’t depend on China. Idaho boasts one of the world’s largest antimony reserves where Perpetua Resources has been trying to develop a gold and antimony mine for more than a decade. The company began the National Environmental Policy Act permitting process in 2016, yet it needs some 50 permits from federal, state and local agencies. Perpetua has completed countless environmental studies and repeatedly modified its project to allay concerns by green groups, though they keep raising new complaints. The company hopes to obtain U.S. Forest Service approval this year, but even then it could face legal challenges. Almost every major mining project in the U.S. faces similar obstacles. Such permitting headaches leave the U.S. vulnerable to Chinese extortion, much as Europe found itself dependent on Russian natural gas. China has repeatedly leveraged its dominance of critical minerals for geopolitical advantage."
Time to increase regulations to prevent greedy capitalists from destroying the environment

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