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Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Links - 8th May 2024 (1 - Housing in Canada)

Why doesn't the original canadahousing subreddit allow any discussion on immigration? : CanadaHousing2 - "Someone posted a stats canada graph showing the all time historic highs for immigration and the mod banned the user and locked the post with "canada has all time low immigration". Mods from that sub cannot even use 0.01% of their critical thinking. Even coming face to face with facts they hold this grand fairytale belief in their minds and they cannot be wrong...  Someone posted the IG of one of the mods and she literally looks like she reaks of cat piss. Shes one of those types of people. A literall troll.  Oh also thank you to the other user who pointed it out since I missed it, this mod in question does not even live in Canada. She resides in Utah or Ohio or something and shes modding a canada housing sub reddit and pushing an agenda..."
Foreign influence is only bad when it hurts the left wing agenda

In Victoria, former Airbnbs are flooding the market — but no one is buying - "the B.C. government announced a ban on short-term rentals that are not in the owner’s principal residence. These units are the most troublesome, because they take housing off the market for long-term residents.  The ban includes units like this one in downtown Victoria — condos that were previously grandfathered-in despite a ban introduced by the city in 2018. That “legal non-conforming” designation kept thousands of homes off the rental and condo market in Victoria alone, and by some estimates boosted their value by as much as $50,000 to 100,000 because of their substantial revenue-generating potential. Before the new legislation, that premium could be made back in a year or two — but now the clock is ticking down to May, when these condos’ ability to earn money as short-term rentals will evaporate. That’s leading to a rush of units hitting the market as owners try to get out of pricey investments that seem destined to plummet in value.  So far, listing prices haven’t reflected this new reality"
Weird. I thought AirBNB was the reason housing was pricey

Bank of Canada: Interest rates not to blame for housing crisis - "Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says the central bank can't solve the housing crisis with interest rates because the root cause is a supply shortage... he noted that shelter price inflation has remained high during times of both low and high interest rates... Macklem said government should be focused on increasing housing supply to improve affordability, and warns policies that increase demand will worsen it."
Japan, which has had negative interest rates for a long time, does not have a housing crisis because the Japanese are not "greedy". Supply and demand are racist and xenophobic

Canadians want denser housing, but not next door: Poll - "About 60 per cent of Canadians say they support increasing density in cities across the country, according to polling data published today by Pollara Strategic Insights, a market research group. However, when asked how they would feel if a single-family home on their block was converted into a triplex, only about 20 per cent said it would be a “good thing.”... About 43 per cent of Canadians said they would view a triplex replacing a single-family home on their block as a “bad thing.”"
Damn greedy landlords and developers keeping housing expensive!

'Lackluster': 6 garden suites built in Toronto since approval to address 'missing middle' housing - "Only six garden suites have been built in Toronto since the city began to search for new ways to bolster the housing supply and address the “missing middle,” stats that industry experts are calling lacklustre...   That need for this kind of “gentle density” can be helped by laneway housing as well which was approved by the city in 2018. More and more laneway homes can be found through the back alleys where garages normally stand, but there are still less than 200 in Toronto."
East Toronto garden suite dispute puts focus on city’s notification rules - "The reality of garden suites and the impact they will have is sinking in for residents of an Upper Beach neighbourhood.  A garden suite under construction at a house on Eastwood Road between Woodbine and Coxwell avenues has raised a range of emotions for both those who initiated the process and those who found themselves affected by the structure.  For the neighbours surrounding the property, they said news that a garden suite was being built in the backyard of one of the houses on the street came as a shock and they are not happy about it at all.  On the other hand, the property owners feel they are being unfairly treated by some of the other residents in the neighbourhood because of their decision to build the garden suite. In this story, Beach Metro Community News has decided to put the focus on the rules surrounding garden suites, and the rights of the property owner and their neighbours when one gets built. As for the relationship between the neighbours, it is accurate to say it has “soured” because of the garden suite... The neighbours directly to the west of the Eastwood project have a sign on their front lawn objecting to the “monstrosity” of a garden suite being built beside their backyard...   “It’s a warning to all, that inappropriate, ill-considered, and ill-approved garden suites will have negative impacts on you and your neighbourhood,” said those neighbours in a statement to Beach Metro Community News. “And if they come to your neighbourhood, know that city planning people and your city government are not on your side. Expect to be dismissed and ignored.”... “The members of the community know that they can’t stop the building of this ‘garden suite’. However, they want to change the bylaw to ensure that future ‘garden suites’ can’t be built without community consultation and an environmental assessment,” said a news release from a number of residents in the area"

Libertas Fund’s Returns Hurt by Bad Bet Against Canadian Housing Market - Bloomberg - "Last year marked the fifth time the fund posted a double-digit annual loss, and overall it’s down about 80% since its inception. Canada’s housing prices have ballooned in the past two decades, spurring speculation of an implosion that would cause a recession"

What keeps a financial planner up at night? ‘People withdrawing all of their savings to meet their new mortgage needs’ - The Globe and Mail

Pierre Poilievre on X - "Former Immigration Minister Fraser admits he knew his policies would impact the housing market but he proceeded with them anyway. Now Trudeau has made him the Housing Minister. Good luck finding a home under this guy."

The Impact of Greenbelts on Housing Markets: Evidence from Toronto - "Greenbelts are a widespread policy tool used to protect natural spaces from urban sprawl. With rising housing costs in many metropolitan areas, numerous questions have been raised about the impact of greenbelts on housing markets. Yet despite the intense policy debate, there is little empirical evidence to assess how greenbelts affect housing supply and prices across a metropolitan region. In this paper, I set out a new approach to estimate the impact of greenbelt policies on housing market outcomes and use it to evaluate the introduction of the world’s largest contiguous greenbelt, which formed a protected zone around Toronto in the early 2000s. Using rich project-level data on housing developments, I first show that the Ontario Greenbelt affected housing development patterns, where restricted, developable census tracts saw less housing built relative to unrestricted tracts. Next, to quantify the effects across the metropolitan area, I build and estimate a model of housing supply and demand with heterogeneous supply elasticities at the census tract level. Using the model, I simulate the scenario in which no Greenbelt was implemented, finding that the Greenbelt led to a reduction in aggregate housing supply of almost 10,000 units and price increases of 4.1% for houses and 6.1% for condominiums; this corresponds to an increase in condo rent of $675 a year. Finally, I show that had the Greenbelt been paired with a small relaxation of zoning regulations within cities, these negative consequences from the Greenbelt would disappear, suggesting a viable alternative to developing greenbelts in the face of rising housing prices."
Damn greedy developers and investors!

Why Olivia Chow is spending millions on Toronto renters - "Chow’s proposed changes include $41 million more for the multi-unit residential acquisition program that helps non-profit organizations buy rental buildings, both to keep units affordable and to make sure no one comes along with a wrecking ball to make way for luxury condos.  There’s also more than $2 million extra for programs that prevent evictions and $865,000 for more inspectors to work on the municipal RentSafeTO program designed to crack down on bad landlords, funded by a hike to the fee large landlords pay to register their units with the city."
When you prevent urban renewal and the creation of new housing, and impose costs on landlords that invariably will be passed on to tenants. Of course, greedy landlords and developers are why housing is so expensive. And of course, the writer repeats the complaint about overly-low property taxes, when left wingers repeatedly promote density because it's supposedly more efficient. Maybe the reality is that the left wing agenda is expensive, and there're alternative models to what left wingers claim is the only possible one

UBC student flies in from Calgary to save money - "Chen is originally from Calgary. He had previously been living in Vancouver while studying at UBC, but gave up his rental unit while he went on vacation during the fall.  When he returned, he was met with sticker shock.  "When I checked the house price I thought, oh shoot, there was a big increase!" he said. “I need to pay like $2,500 for the rent, so I don't feel like it's viable."  He began looking at the price of flights from Calgary to Vancouver and realized they were about $150 round trip.  He takes two classes per week at the university.  In total he’ll pay about $1,200 for the flights per month while he lives at home with his parents in Calgary. Ultimately, it's much cheaper than the average price of a one-bedroom apartment in Vancouver, which sits at about $2,100."

Forget downsizing: Canadian seniors staying in large houses well into their 80s, due in part to lack of options - The Globe and Mail - " “better health and better wealth” is part of what is keeping people at home longer, but so is a lack of options. Those who would be willing to downsize, he said, are often stymied by a lack of housing variety in their communities, so they stay in their homes to remain close to their friends.  “Solutions aimed at increasing supply from existing units (by creating secondary suites or laneway homes, for example) could be increasingly considered.” the report said. Mr. Cortellino said that in many of Canada’s large cities, seniors living alone or couples over age 75 are more likely than young families to live in single-family homes with three or more bedrooms... He said he’s found anecdotally that many people are instead “downsizing from the inside” – only using a small part of their house, often the ground floor, and often closing off or limiting heating in the rest.  Several other reports confirm parts of his findings. Real estate and mortgage company Redfin published a report in January that found that in the United States, “empty-nest baby boomers own 28 per cent of the nation’s large homes [with three or more bedrooms], while millennials with kids own just 14 per cent.” A September paper by University of Waterloo and McMaster University researchers states seniors are most likely to leave their homes for a retirement home only when access to home care and other services become a challenge. And a Deloitte report from 2022 found “91 per cent of Ontario seniors hope to stay in their own home for as long as possible.”... there’s also a cultural element: Canadians are very driven by home ownership... The cost of moving – especially for someone living in a home that is paid off – is also a barrier to many seniors who would otherwise consider downsizing"... “Moving costs will be higher than most people expect,” Ms. Chung said. Among her clients who are staying in their homes instead of downsizing, “either they find that they would not have the net financial gain from downsizing that they’d expected, or they even might find that it costs more for this smaller home because of the location, amenities, age, and of course, the market that wants the same thing.”"

Bank of Canada says government efforts to curb housing crisis will help 'gradually' - "The Bank of Canada says record levels of immigration are driving up the cost of housing and recent government efforts to cut the number of non-permanent residents and encourage home building will help lower housing costs, but "only gradually."   "In the short term any increase in population, particularly in an environment of constrained supply, is going to put upward pressure on prices," said Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada."
Damn racist xenophobes!

Ontario family could lose its farm due to Ford government's Highway 413 : ontario - "Except according to our housing task force that isn’t going to solve anything:  “Too much land inside cities is tied up by outdated rules. For example, it's estimated that 70% of land zoned for housing in Toronto is restricted to single-detached or semi-detached homes.' This type of zoning prevents homeowners from adding additional suites to create housing for Ontarians and income for themselves.  …it's estimated that about half of all residential land in Ottawa is zoned for single-detached housing, meaning nothing else may be built on a lot without public consultation and an amendment to the zoning by-law.  Most of the solution must come from densification. Greenbelts and other environmentally sensitive areas must be protected, and farms provide food and food security.”... Environmentalists agree too.  You know who doesn’t agree? The developers and builders."
"While we wait for those municipalities to figure its shit out (which could take a decade).  We just need to build, build up, build out, build as much as we can.."
What sort of voodoo logic is this? Zoning prevents land from being used for dense housing, therefore the solution can only be densification, and we must prevent housing from being built where and when it's easily built, and developers are evil

Calgary sprawls into open fields around it, while existing areas are closed off to change - "This is the reason why a rundown old bungalow in places like Rundle or Southwood will languish for years, because a teardown can't be turned into a duplex or side-by-side like it can in other areas. It's also the reason why almost all the infill redevelopment is happening in neighbourhoods like Killarney, North Glenmore Park or Tuxedo Park — it's because those areas have RC-2 or R-2 zoning, and you can't legally replace one wide-lot house with two anywhere else in the city. Well, you can get it done. But on any of those lots in those orange zones, property owners must apply to the city for rezoning, a costly process that includes having to get your individual proposal accepted at a city council meeting.  Remember that longstanding absurd spectacle of homeowners' one-at-a-time pleadings to councillors to allow them to add in legal basement suites, before council finally relented and eased those stubborn limits on suites? Most Calgary homeowners need that same special permission to develop semi-detached homes... there can even be pushback getting neighbourhoods used to duplexes to stomach more than two houses where a single house once stood.  At a council hearing into Pabla's four-unit proposal on a 20th Street S.W. corner lot in Altadore, several residents spoke out.  "Please consider the traffic and safety of our community," said one neighbour, who also fretted that potentially losing the lot's trees made it bad for the climate. (Council approved the rezoning, 9-5.)  Duplexes face similar resistance in R-1 zones, with many community association leaders explicitly defending the preservation of "R-1 neighbourhoods."  Kourtney Penner is councillor for Ward 11 in Calgary's suburban southwest, and lives with her children in a skinny infill.  "You hear the comments: it's gonna bring increased parking, or increased cross traffic, or it's going to lower my house prices," she says. "And those are all urban myths."...  the city has let the lion's share of housing growth happen at the edges where, interestingly, R-1 zones don't exist. In developing neighbourhoods like Keystone Hills in the far north and Belmont in the southwest, they've instead zoned everything as R-G, which allows duplexes without special permission.  In those new subdivisions, there are no established community groups or residents to push back against potential change.  Elsewhere, change to find the missing middle won't come easily."
Damn greedy developers keeping housing expensive!

Public spat erupts on social media over city council housing decision - "“The Trudeau government wants us to allow 4-plexes to be developed in ANY residential neighborhood and on ANY residential street ANYWHERE in Forest Glade, Riverside, East Riverside, Walkerville, Ford City and South Windsor;” Dilkens said. “This intensity will have big implications on the underground (sewer) and parking infrastructure throughout the city….for which we will ALL pay!” Dilkens went further in his comments, saying, “The majority of residents in our city don’t want these types of developments next door or across the street. City Council respects our residents and their opinion. “We have offered a fair, reasonable and sensible solution to allow more housing to be built but we won’t be bullied into a solution that alters the quality of life of residents who have worked hard to buy a home in a great neighbourhood,” he wrote... One Dilkens supporter wrote, “Thank you for exercising some common sense and standing up for Windsor!”"
Clearly the way to make housing cheaper is to outlaw renting

Ontario pushes false narrative we don't have enough land - "Premier Doug Ford claims his new so-called “Get it Done Act” will make it easier to build houses in Ontario, but in reality it’s a disingenuous piece of work that quietly slips in changes that will make Ontario’s housing crisis worse.  Hidden in the middle of this messy omnibus bill is language that will require many Ontario municipalities to allow new development on previously protected farmland, forests, river valleys and wetlands... if the bill is passed we’ll see builders encouraged to put up more large, expensive houses that are unaffordable to average Ontario families"
I'm sure liberals blocking housing construction will make housing cheaper, since according to them, increasing the supply of housing will make the housing crisis worse. Because of course, they don't understand supply and demand and how new high end housing leads to a ripple effect, lowering the price of lower end housing

Chrystia Freeland touts 'affordable' 330-square-foot units for $1,600 - "Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland toured a new building on Monday offering micro-apartments starting at $1,600 per month that she said was illustrative of the homes that her government is getting built for “low and middle income Canadians.”... What the deputy prime minister did not mention is that Hudson House will be renting its 227 units at rates considered high even by the wildly inflated standards of Coastal B.C.  Two-bedroom units at Hudson House start at about $3,300 per month. The lowest priced one-bedroom unit is advertised at $2,410 per month.  The absolute lowest priced Hudson House unit being advertised is their A2 Studio Apartment, a micro-unit of just 330 square feet — about the size of two parking spots. The A2 starts at $1,680 per month. Even with Victoria at the sharp end of some of the most inflated rents in Canadian history, units at Hudson House have asking rents that are higher than average. According to the most recent report by Rentals.ca, the average asking rent for a Victoria two-bedroom is $2,743, with one-bedrooms averaging $2,116.  And all of these figures are well beyond the rents paid by the average Victorian. Since most Victoria renters are locked in at lower rates, according to CMHC the average rent paid in the city is $1,516 per month...  like all Trudeau government housing announcements these days, Hudson House represents an infinitesimal contribution to a housing shortage that is being utterly swamped by record-high immigration. In just a three-month period last year, Canada added 430,635 new people — easily placing Canada among the top five fastest-growing countries on Earth. That’s an average of 5,000 newcomers per day.  This means that even if every single Hudson House unit ends up housing a family of five, it will account for just five hours’ worth of new immigration. Freeland’s visit to Hudson House also included an aside in which she seemed to hint at B.C. being superior to her home region of the Prairies. “How lucky you are to live in this amazing city — wow,” Freeland told the assembled Victoria press corps, before referring to a line from the Margaret Laurence novel The Diviners that “for Prairie people the real-life version of dying and going to heaven is to move to B.C.”"

Petition For Non-Payment of Rent Gaining Momentum : TorontoRealEstate - "There are no statistics that support the assertion that there's a huge 'increase in landlording' - that's simply not true in the city of Toronto. The city actually saw a slight rise in home ownership during the 90s, which has now gone back to previously stable levels of about 50% owner vs. 50% renter (which has been the aprox split for about 40 decades which you can see in the city of Toronto's public data).  The Ombudsman did a very lengthly investigation into the state of the LTB which doesn't align with anything you've said - so if you actually want a source of truth on the matter here you go: "
Ombudsman calls for legislative change, overhaul of “moribund” Landlord and Tenant Board - Ontario Ombudsman - "The investigation, conducted by the Special Ombudsman Response Team, reviewed the Board’s existing systemic problems, as well as its struggles with COVID-related challenges, including a shift to online hearings and a glitchy application portal. Throughout, Ombudsman staff helped numerous tenants and landlords resolve their individual cases. Among the “host of inefficiencies” the investigation identified were:
A shortage of qualified adjudicators (members), compounded by a lengthy, cumbersome appointment and training process
A complex application process that sometimes forces applicants to start over for errors
Antiquated systems that are not equipped to triage or expedite urgent cases, track orders and member caseloads, or identify members near the end of their terms
   A lack of available bilingual adjudicators, and issues with application forms that only identify if applicants require services in French, not respondents"
This doesn't stop the left wingers and their conspiracy theories about how Doug Ford is trying to destroy the LTB

Some Ontario landlords are calling for 'automatic' evictions for tenants who don't pay rent - "In B.C., if a tenant has not paid their rent, a landlord can serve them with a 10 day notice to end the tenancy. The tenant then has five days to either pay the rent or apply to the province's Residential Tenancy Branch to dispute the notice.   If the tenant does neither of those things, the landlord can then apply for an order of possession without a hearing.   Lawyer and tenant advocate Robert Patterson, with the Tenant Resource & Advisory Centre, says the system may lead to speedy evictions, but it can also be taken advantage of by "bad actors." He encourages other provinces not to look to B.C. as a model for handling evictions... When it comes to landlords facing debt due to months of unpaid rent, Dent argues that's simply part of the risk of business.   "I have no sympathy for landlords right now in this rental market. I have no sympathy for investors that have to learn about investment risk. But I have a lot of sympathy for tenants," Dent said... Seepe says the level of support and interest from landlords has surprised even him, which he says is a clear indicator that there's a growing number of landlords who are fed up.   He argues that if landlords didn't need to worry about lengthy processes, it could improve the rental market for everyone. "I wouldn't even worry about bank statements or pay stubs or identification and so on," Seepe said. "If I knew that the tenant could be gone in 30 to 60 days because of non payment of rent, I believe that the great majority of housing providers would open up their doors."   Mahmood, in Oshawa, says that after his ordeal he will think "100 times" about ever renting out a property again. Right now his plan is to save money in order to fix up the property so he can sell it and recoup some of his losses."
In left wing land, tenants are too stupid/incompetent/lazy to dispute falsified claims of non-payment of rent. But then they also think landlords don't price in risk and just mock them for not being wise investors, while excoriating them for being greedy and unreasonable

Brampton home renting out multiple rooms, people living in car - "“A house in Brampton has multiple rooms being rented and people living in a car on the driveway,” according to an Instagram post shared by NMG Brampton. “They’ve also been seen urinating on the side of the house.”... “The Walmart parking lots in Brampton have cars with entire families sleeping in them every night,” they continued. “It’s just insane how two people that work full time can no longer provide basic housing for their children. What have we done?”"
Clearly, more regulation making housing even scarcer is the answer!

Business leaders say housing biggest risk to economy: KPMG survey - “Housing issues are forcing businesses to boost pay to better attract talent and budget for higher labour costs, agreed 87 per cent of respondents… The need to pay more not only directly affects business finances, but is also making it harder to tamp down the inflation that is keeping interest rates high, said Charest… Higher housing costs are themselves a big contributor to inflation, also making it harder to get the measure down to allow for lower rates ahead, she said”

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