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Sunday, November 10, 2024

Links - 10th November 2024 (1 - Climate Change [including Electric Cars])

Plug-In Hybrids Are Not The Solution You Think They Are - "the complexity of building an entire internal-combustion engine along with a decently powerful electric drivetrain, packaging them together and smoothly blending their outputs drives up prices. J.D. Power says the average transaction price for a PHEV compact SUV—factoring in credits and incentives—is $48,700. For hybrids, which do not receive tax credits, that number is $37,700. For EVs it's even lower: $36,900. So PHEVs are more expensive and less popular than EVs, hybrids and pure ICE vehicles. You may thing the payoff is in the ownership experience. People get emissions-free day-to-day driving and infinite road trip longevity. In reality, customers aren't too stoked. First off, nobody can reliably say what percentage of people actually plug in their plug-in hybrids. The data suggests fewer do then you'd expect. When PHEVs aren't plugged in, they require more fuel than an equivalent standard hybrid, because they're lugging around extra weight. Some studies suggest they pollute far, far more than their official numbers would suggest... Even when they are plugged in, they also don't tend to have the instant-torque oomph that makes EVs so effortless to drive. Many require their internal-combustion engines to spool up during maximum-power situations, and the blending of the throttle pedal and brakes usually makes them harder to drive smoothly. They are also less reliable than EVs or ICE vehicles... Finally, they do not support direct current fast charging (DCFC), which means they must be slowly charged. If you do not park your vehicle in places with level 2 chargers for multiple hours most days, you will usually be operating as a traditional hybrid, as most PHEVs can only handle a normal day's commute before needing a charge. That means you really need home or office charging to make one work. If you can charge consistently at home or work, then you can probably make an EV work for you. Those who road trip more than 300 miles more than 6ish times per year may be best served by a PHEV, but for almost everyone the idea of true no-gas commuting will be cheaper, smoother, more reliable and more comfortable. Those who cannot reasonably charge at home or at work, those who road trip often, those who are most price conscious and those who are not quite ready to learn new habits will enjoy the simplicity and maturity of traditional hybrid technology. Perhaps that's why PHEVs were the least satisfying vehicle group in J.D. Power data. The jack of all trades is once again a master of none."

2024 U.S. Initial Quality Study (IQS) | J.D. Power - "Proponents of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) often state these vehicles should be less problematic and require fewer repairs than gas-powered vehicles since they have fewer parts and systems. However, newly incorporated repair data shows BEVs, as well as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), require more repairs than gas-powered vehicles in all repair categories. “Owners of cutting edge, tech-filled BEVs and PHEVs are experiencing problems that are of a severity level high enough for them to take their new vehicle into the dealership at a rate three times higher than that of gas-powered vehicle owners,” Hanley said."

Raise taxes on petrol and diesel cars to reduce electric ‘premium’ – think tank - "A report by the Resolution Foundation recommended that this action is taken if “concerns” persist over the number of EVs being bought... Steve Gooding, director of motoring research charity the RAC Foundation, said: “Tax incentives that favour wealthier households might stick in the craw, but it’s the wealthier motorists and fleet buyers who will ultimately drive the transition to electric motoring because they buy the new cars that ultimately cascade into the used – more affordable – market. “More focus is clearly needed on the coverage, cost and reliability of public charging if the remaining consumer caution about EVs is to be overcome.”"

Used EVs depreciate 10x faster than gas-powered cars

Electric car drivers involved in more road crashes but vehicle isn't to blame, says study - "Repairing electric vehicles is 6.7% more expensive than fixing traditional vehicles. Though an electric vehicle offers lower average mileage than ICE (internal combustion engine), drivers controlling the former experience a 4% increase in crashes. Meanwhile, it’s a 6% increase for hybrids (HYBs). The analysis of both EVs and HYBs further proved that the latter does not show “any further concerns of increased at-fault claim risk.”, but that’s not the case with EVs. “Our research shows drivers’ driving behavior changes significantly when switching to hybrids or EVs. These results mean EVs are more likely to experience an at-fault claim than internal combustion engines,” added Dr Sheehan, Associate Professor in Risk and Finance at UL... the drivers incur significant first-party damages, and battery costs while at higher risk of road crashes. Despite the well-known benefits of electric vehicles, the study notes that owners will incur a “higher financial burden than petrol and diesel cars.”"
Clearly, we must coerce people into using electric cars by taxing ICE cars more
Maybe the moral licensing (aka halo effect) makes people drive like assholes

Electric Cars Are Losing Up to 50 Percent of Their Value in One Year | WIRED - "The used-car market was turned on its head in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, as production slowed, key components such as microchips became scarce, and secondhand prices rose. According to iSeeCars, a US car search and research company, the effects are still being felt, and all cars held their value better in 2023 than in 2019. Prior to the pandemic, the average car would lose 50 percent of its value in five years, the company said, but by late 2023 this had fallen to 38.8 percent. However, electric cars are performing less well, losing an average of 49.1 percent of their value in five years, according to analysis of more than 1 million 2018-model-year cars sold between 2022 and 2023... The fear of coughing up more cash than the car is worth to swap out a broken pack lingers in the mind of any driver whose EV is no longer protected by its manufacturer’s battery warranty, which often lasts for eight years or 100,000 miles. That said, battery failure is rare, and many aftermarket warranty providers now include EV battery cover"

Canada's EV transition could cost more than $300B by 2040 - "Canada’s electric-vehicle transition could cost more than $300 billion by 2040 as the installation of charging infrastructure expands, upgrades to the electrical grid are made and other changes take place, according to a report released by Natural Resources Canada."

Study shows EV owners have bigger carbon footprint than average because they are wealthier - "The researchers found that people who purchase EVs tend to be wealthier than average. They are also more highly educated and drive more miles per year on average. The researchers also found that despite buying and driving an EV, the average purchaser of an EV still had a higher carbon footprint than people who did not buy such vehicles. This, the researchers note, is because wealthier people in general have a bigger carbon footprint—they use more electricity, which is most often produced at a coal-burning plant, they consume more goods, the production of which tends to release greenhouse gases, and they drive more and travel more. Ultimately, the researchers found that the use of an EV did not overcome an overall larger carbon footprint."
Time to bash SUV owners more

15 Powerful Reasons for Banning Gasoline Cars Immediately
Amazing. The climate change hystericists get ever more extreme

BMW CEO: Europe must cancel petrol engine ban to reduce reliance on China - "Europe must cancel its plan to ban new fossil fuel-emitting cars from 2035 to reduce reliance on China's battery supply chain and play to its technological strengths, BMW's chief executive said on Tuesday. Oliver Zipse, who has long pushed for regulators to permit various technologies - including alternative fuels like e-fuels or biofuels and hydrogen fuel cell cars - said the mood in Europe was "trending towards one of pessimism" and the region needed a new regulatory framework to remain competitive."

Joel Kotkin: Western nations cripple their economies with green initiatives while China and others laugh - "The prevailing notion, both in Ottawa and D.C., is that our countries should ignore our resources, and how best to use them, in order to fulfill a messianic vision of massive, rapid emissions reduction. Canada’s proposed carbon tax, pushed through media at government expense , and zealously promoted by Mark Carney , who thinks mass decarbonization, as epitomized by Europe, provides the road map to prosperity, despite the continent’s consistent economic lethargy. This approach has also poisoned politics as not all provinces are affected equally by the initiative. The institution of the carbon tax and other measures by government and through the relentless pressure of green non-profits, to get a 40 per cent emissions cut by 2030 may be the toast of investment bankers betting on cashing in on forced changes. But for taxpayers, the impact will vary by province. Fossil fuels account for five per cent of Canada’s overall GDP but four times as much in Calgary, Newfoundland and Labrador. However, as much this appeals to academics and wealth pearl-clutchers in cities, it translates into higher prices than normal. As the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh suggested, it places unfair “burdens” on the working class, one reason for his opposition to the tax. Worse still, the biggest green targets of what climatistas label as “industrial carbon” could devastate those same NDP voters — blue collar workers in mining, like manufacturing, logistics and agriculture. Canada does not need another way to slow its economy. One recent estimate suggests that the proposed $170 a ton proposal would slice 1.8 per cent from the country’s already anemic GDP and cost upwards of 185,000 net jobs. Even Liberals admit something close to a 1 per cent decline. Some may see these draconian attempts to wipe out fossil fuels as the Lord’s work, but on the ground level it seems closer to class warfare. Trudeau and his supports insist these policies are critical for saving the planet. Yet, attempts to follow such approaches elsewhere have not ended well. In Europe, most obviously Germany, as well as California , the shift to “renewable energy” has led, as it usually does, to high prices that already are driving German industry off the continent. Although not nearly as well-endowed with energy as North America, the climate lobby in Europe makes sure to throttle anything, such as offshore oil in the UK — in pursuit of green puritanism. There’s something delusional in many of these initiatives. A key mistake is the common green assertion that fossil fuels are becoming obsolete and should be wiped out for the benefit of fitting a new economy. Yet, in the real world, despite billions in subsidies for “green power,” fossil fuels still represent roughly four fifths of global energy generation, just as it did twenty years ago. This is after expenditures of over one trillion were spent on solar and wind. The West has been reducing per capita emissions for years, but this is utterly subsumed by growth in developing countries, notably China, which not only buys huge amounts of natural gas but continues to open new coal-fired plants at a rapid rate. North Americans be forewarned that in imposing burdens on themselves, but not competitors, green governments are essentially guaranteeing their own decline. Already in the EU, nearly a million industrial jobs have been lost over the past few years, with investment shifting to countries like China and India, which freely use coal and fossil fuels to keep costs down. Britain’s path may give the starkest preview of the future Biden and Trudeau have in mind for us. Since 1990 the manufacturing sector’s share of GDP has dropped roughly 50 per cent along with several million jobs. This parallels a two thirds drop in UK energy production, while consumption has fallen by only one third. Three decades ago, a net energy exporter, the UK now increasingly depends on imports from the Middle East and other unstable regions. The winner here is clearly China, a country that emits more GHG than all developed countries put together. Ironically, carbon reduction policies fit brilliantly into its strategy to use its coal and other fossil fuel energy to power their takeover of the “green economy.” China has placed itself in the catbird’s seat on renewable energy, including utter domination of solar panels and electric vehicles. China already produces twice as many EVs as the US and the EU combined, and seeks to leverage its total domination of the solar-panel industry — its battery capacity is now roughly four times ours . China also exercises effective control of the requisite rare earth minerals and the technologies used to process them. As the west’s own overpriced EVs sit on lots, China plays us for utter fools as we undermine our own industrial economy. The forced march to EV will be particularly tough on the 125,000 who work in Canada’s car factories. Manufacturing and mining , much of it energy-related, represent, along with real estate, two of the country’s largest industries. Under the current circumstances, they are heading for a spectacular fall. Overall, the EV industry in the U.S. uses 30 per cent less domestic labor than traditional gasoline car manufacturing, and under current circumstances can only hope for some basic assembly work using Chinese components. These policies will affect every industry and consumer as cars and things like heaters are all forced to electrify. Britain’s shift to EVs is projected to double the demand for electricity by 2040, and its government is already looking to ban the use of home chargers during peak hours . By 2050 in California, state consultants estimate total energy demand will skyrocket, by some estimates rising 60 to 90 per cent. Not surprisingly, the state will face “acute electricity shortages” over the coming decade, according to one recent analysis . Rising demands for electricity for artificial intelligence seems likely to add to this burden. Microsoft alone is opening a new data centre globally every three days. These power-hungry operations are expected to grow from 4.5 per cent of energy demand to 10 per cent by 2035 . Artificial intelligence and data center demand are leading to massive expansions in projected energy use around the world at a time of restricted supply. Google, renowned for its green virtue signaling, has boosted its own emissions by 50 per cent since 2019. Ultimately, the oligarchs will likely get their juice from sources like decommissioned nuclear energy, while the average family will take the economic hit in order to fulfill the agenda pushed by the likes of Steve Jobs’ widow, Lauren, Michael Bloomberg, the Rockefellers, Jeff Bezos and venture capitalist John Doerr. These, and other oligarchic allies, are waging a sophisticated and well-financed media and institutional campaign to catastrophize the climate issue as a way to ban gas stoves, stop new LNG facilities, and crack down on plastics. Finally, there is the issue of security, particularly relevant in an age of declining western power. The new green mandates, if adopted, presage yet another force to further reduce the industrial prowess of western countries, while driving more industries to China, India, and other countries who produce their goods with dirtier fuels and develop resources with less environmental care. At the same time, third world countries, for the most part, are not embracing “net zero,” as it is totally infeasible for them and will likely resist western lectures on climate policy. All of this is occurring as a concert of ugly energy producers — Russia, Iran, and Venezuela — press their advantage on western countries. They stand to benefit from continued de-industrialization as one way to further weaken the military capacity of the west. Taking away North American liquified natural gas from Europe simply makes the continent more dependent on such malefactors as Qatar, a primary backer of terrorists and their supporters, and may lead the west, hat in hand, to beg from even worse regimes, like Russia and Iran. The good news — while green virtue-signaling may appeal to Trudeau, Biden, and Harris — these policies could be impacted by political realities"
Mocking people for voting against their interests only works when that pushes the left wing agenda

Government data shows carbon tax to impact GDP by $25 billion in 2030 - "The federal carbon tax will have a negative economic impact on Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) of $25 billion, or approximately one per cent, in 2030 according to the government’s own internal data... Those numbers, which were shared with the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) last month on the condition they remain confidential, were published as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was about to deliver a speech to call on the government to disclose them publicly. The government had previously said it could not release the data because it could contain sensitive information... That amounts to a 0.92 per cent reduction in real GDP in 2030. It is slightly lower than the PBO’s estimation of 1.3 per cent which it predicted in its first economic analysis in 2022."
Clearly, Canadian economic growth is not weak enough and we need even more Liberal policies to depress it further because virtue signalling is super important

Chris Brunet on X - ""In Canada, the government takes 50% of your income, then returns 1% if you 'comply.' The leader, whose father was also the leader, frames this 1% rebate as a magnanimous gift directly from him. Citizens believe this gift will make the planet slightly colder.''"

Wide Awake Media on X - "A coal-fired power plant in China's Sichuan province. China now emits more CO2 than the entire developed world combined—completely cancelling out all the sacrifices you are being forced to make in the farcical pursuit of net zero."

Germans most worried about cost of living and migration, study finds - "The rising cost of living and the arrival of migrants into Germany are the two top concerns weighing on minds of German citizens, a new long-term study published on Wednesday has found. Rising prices are the number one German angst, with 57% of respondents saying they are worried about the cost of living surging further. It was also the concern named most often in the 33 surveys conducted as part of the study. "A look at our long-term statistics shows that when it comes to their own wallets, Germans are sensitive," says study head Grischa Brower-Rabinowitsc. Some 52% of respondents said they were worried about rent becoming too expensive, a concern ranking third in the study... the issue of migration also continues to preoccupy people in Germany, coming in at second place on the list of concerns. More than half of those surveyed, or 56%, are worried that society and the authorities are not prepared to deal with the number of refugees arriving in the country."
Left wing virtue signaling about the environment and migrants has very real costs

German industry faces job cuts amid energy policy hurdles With this demand to scale up renewables even more, the vicious circle will be further deepened and the economy will collapse. Brilliant.

Energy crisis prompts German firms to consider relocation abroad - "Four of ten industrial enterprises are considering reducing their production in Germany or moving it abroad due to the energy situation. More than half of industrial enterprises employing over 500 employees are already considering this, reports the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce. He added that politicians have not yet shown companies a perspective of reliable and affordable energy supplies."

Ontario's top court orders new hearing in youth climate case - "Young people arguing Ontario's weakened emissions target violates their Charter rights... The top court in the Netherlands ruled in 2019 that the government had a duty to protect citizens from the potentially devastating effects of climate change, and upheld lower court decisions ordering the government to further cut its emissions."
When prices rise, the same youth activists will blame greedy companies (but of course, not China and India, which will carry on emitting carbon instead of destroying their economies to virtue signal)

Alberta wildfire update for April 24, 2024 (aka "All Alberta wildfires to date in 2024 believed to be human-caused: province")
Damn climate change, making people start fires!

These busted solar panels are an early example of a looming problem — and an opportunity - "Dan Carrocci, who's worked in renewable energy construction for more than a decade, has long been troubled by the lack of end-of-life options for this infrastructure and is stockpiling the old panels in hopes of developing acommercially viable means of recycling them... Installation of solar and wind power ison the rise, but according to a 2021 report from the University of Ottawa think-tank theSmart Prosperity Institute, decommissioned solar panels and wind turbine blades often end up sitting in storage or being sent to landfill. Much of the wind and solar infrastructure in this country is fairly new, but by 2050 the Smart Prosperity Institute said conservative estimates suggest Canada could see a cumulative 365,000 to 470,000 tonnes of expired solar panel waste and 4.5 million tonnes of wind turbine waste, though the institute said the total will be much higher if the country plans to hit its net-zero targets. "Just producing that much waste, landfilling it going forward, it's not really a sustainable solution," said Geoff McCarney, the institute's senior research director... Bothsolar panels andwind turbines are between 85 and 90 per cent recyclable, according to CanREA, but that doesn't mean it's an easy process. "They're recyclable for sure, or at least most of the materials are recyclable," said Warren Mabee, director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen's University. "But it's challenging and it might cost more than you get back in the value of the material that you're recycling." The Alberta Recycling Management Authority got an early taste at how tricky these materials can be when, in 2020, it started accepting solar panels as electronics waste through a pilot project. "We soon realized it's a very difficult material to recycle," said Ed Gugenheimer, the authority's CEO."
Weird. I've seen climate change hystericists insist that it's easy to recycle them. Clearly, all that's needed is more government subsidies and/or for companies to "do the right thing" and lose money in pursuit of a green utopia that will never come

R.I.P., Canadian carbon tax - "How did the carbon tax become so unpopular? It never had widespread public support to start with, even if many economists endorsed it enthusiastically and naïve political pundits pushed the faulty argument that a majority of Canadians voted for parties that endorsed the tax. That’s strictly true. But the Liberals won in 2015 because of voter fatigue with Stephen Harper and their promise of middle-class tax cuts, not their enthusiasm for the carbon tax. The public grudgingly put up with the carbon tax as long as it added only a few cents per litre to the low market prices they were paying for gas after 2014. The election of Conservative governments in Ontario and Alberta brought more vocal opposition to the tax and led to high-profile if ultimately unsuccessful litigation about federal intrusion into provincial jurisdiction over natural resources. Carbon-tax advocates made many mistakes in pressing their case. One was to ignore the profound North American antipathy for consumption taxes and marked preference for income taxes, the polar opposite of Europe. This partly reflects the state’s different historical role in North America, as well as the geographic reality that North America’s huge land mass makes households much more sensitive to transportation costs. Canadians could ignore a small carbon tax when world oil prices were low, but not when the tax rose just as household finances were being squeezed by surging inflation starting in 2021. This contradicted the promise of some disingenuous carbon-tax advocates, notably at the University of Ottawa’s Smart Prosperity Institute, that the tax would be painless, based on a misrepresentation of B.C.’s experience. (B.C.’s pivotal role as an early adopter makes its recent proposal to abandon the tax symbolically important.)... higher fuel costs would have no immediate impact on climate change, both because Canada’s emissions were not in fact declining and because our share of global emissions is simply too small to alter the total, which continues to rise, according to the International Energy Agency. Paying higher federal taxes with no tangible benefit in return has been an all-too-common experience for Canadians during the Trudeau years. Proponents initially trumpeted Canada’s experience with a carbon tax as a shining example of economically efficient and environmentally responsible pricing of carbon emissions. Less than a decade later, abandonment of the carbon tax by parties across the political spectrum instead makes us the poster boy for the pitfalls of imposing a carbon tax in North America."

National Gallery bans liquids after repeated protestor attacks - "The National Gallery has banned liquids except baby formula, expressed milk and prescription medicines after a number of attacks on paintings in its central London building. The measure, in effect from Friday morning, comes in the wake of "physical damage" to its artworks by protesters... Protesters targeted the art museum on five separate occasions since July 2022. Vincent van Gogh's Sunflowers, John Constable's The Hay Wain and Diego Velazquez's Rokeby Venus have all been damaged."
Left wing neurosis has very real costs to society

Gavin Rice on X - "Apparently this awful security queue for the National Gallery is now permanent. I used to just walk up the steps and in. Just Stop Oil madness means this is just the future we are a living in. Wonders of no longer living in a high trust society."
Iain Murray on X - "It only takes a couple of people to break a norm and all of a sudden life is less good for everyone else, forever."

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