Is Western Civilisation on the verge of collapse?

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Is Western Civilisation on the verge of collapse?

In order to answer this question, we must first understand the ten interconnected factors that led to the decline and fall of the greatest empire in history – the Roman Empire.

A mega-thread.  

Rapid expansion without effective assimilation of conquered peoples significantly contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, as it struggled to integrate diverse populations, leading to political fragmentation and growing cultural divisions.

In his Res Gestae, Ammianus Marcellinus outlined the fragmentation of social cohesion, writing, "The empire was overrun by peoples who had not been Romanised, and this lack of unity led to civil strife and vulnerability to external threats".

The failure to assimilate barbarian tribes resulted in internal instability, with some tribes establishing semi-autonomous entities within Roman territories, further undermining Rome's control due to overextended military resources and weakened border defences.

The exponential rise in slavery and citizen unemployment significantly contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire. This dynamic created economic instability and social unrest, as the influx of slaves displaced free labourers and led to widespread poverty.

In his Roman History, Cassius Dio observed the social unrest caused by slavery and unemployment, writing, "The plebeians, excluded from all employment by the enormous number of slaves, fell into idleness, poverty, and vice".

This shift also weakened the empire's economic foundation and military strength, reducing the number of citizens able to serve in the army, while also eroding traditional Roman values and straining resources, ultimately undermining social cohesion and resistance to external threats. 

Heavy taxation and inflation significantly contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire. This was magnified by the debasement of currency initiated by Nero leading to rampant inflation.

In his On the Embassy to Gaius, Philo of Alexandria commented on the empires dire financial situation, writing, "For when it is necessary to pay taxes, the tax collectors are not ashamed to resort to violence and extortion, and they have no regard for the laws or for justice".

This oppressive taxation, combined with inflationary pressures weakened the empire's economic foundation, eroded public trust, and left Rome vulnerable to both external threats and internal instability as it stripped Roman families of their wealth and dignity.

Government corruption and political instability were significant contributors to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, as rampant bribery, embezzlement, and nepotism eroded public trust and weakened governance.

In his Annals, Tacitus recounted the state of political corruption and instability, writing, "Now was the time when every man's slaves were corrupted, when every rich man's household was in a state of anarchy".

The interference of the Praetorian Guard in imperial succession, combined with regional power structures challenging central authority, created constant uncertainty and internal divisions that left Rome vulnerable to external threats.

The weakening of Roman legions by relying on foreign mercenaries significantly contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, as the need for a larger army led to the recruitment of soldiers who lacked loyalty to Rome.

In his Life of Sulla, Plutarch reveals the Roman’s descent into effeminacy, writing "The Romans, who had once been invincible in war, were now softened by luxury and indolence, and were no longer able to bear the hardships of war. Thus, they became a prey to their enemies, who were emboldened by their weakness".

This shift from the traditional legion to mercenaries undermined military loyalty, effectiveness, and cohesion, leaving borders vulnerable to barbarian invasions, while combined with economic struggles and political instability, it ultimately rendered Rome unable to defend its vast territories and hastened its collapse.

Population collapse due to declining birth rates and disease significantly contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, particularly following the devastating Antonine Plague which is estimated to have killed 15% of the population.

In his Anecdota, Procopius observed the collapse of the Roman population, writing, "Thus the empire, which had been built by virtue, was destroyed by vice. For the people had become so corrupted that they no longer cared for their own welfare or that of their children. They were not only indifferent to their own safety but also to the safety of the state".

This demographic crisis which was magnified by contraceptive practices led to labour shortages and economic instability, ultimately undermining the Roman Empire's military strength and its ability to defend its territories.

Wealth inequality and the dissolution of the middle class significantly contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, as expansion led to wealth becoming concentrated among a few elites while many citizens lost their property and livelihoods.

In his Annals, Tacitus described the growing inequality within Roman society, writing, "The degradation of the populace was a consequence of wealth being concentrated in the hands of a few, while the masses were left impoverished and without means".

This economic disparity resulted in social unrest and weakened the empire's foundation, leaving Rome vulnerable to internal strife and external threats, with a shrinking tax base and fewer citizens able to serve in the military, ultimately hastening its collapse.

The focus on entertainment, particularly through spectacles such as chariot races and gladiatorial games, contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire as it distracted the people from pressing social and political issues.

In his Satires, Juvenal encapsulates this moral decline, writing, "The people have abdicated their duties. Everything now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses". This phenomenon, often referred to as "bread and circuses" involved providing welfare and extravagant entertainment to placate the masses, thereby fostering a culture of dependency and apathy among citizens.

As emperors invested greater resources in these spectacles to gain popularity, they neglected critical governance and military needs, leading to weakened state structures and increased vulnerability to external threats.

The barbarian invasions significantly contributed to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire. These invasions destabilised the power and authority of provincial governments and led to widespread looting and chaos.

In his Res Gestae, Ammianus Marcellinus highlighted the devastating effects of continuous barbarian invasions, writing, "The Goths and other tribes have broken through our frontiers. They have laid waste our lands with fire and sword, and have reduced our cities to ashes".

As the empire's defences weakened, barbarian groups settled within Roman territory, depleting resources, disrupting trade, eroding trust in leadership, and ultimately fragmenting the Western Roman Empire into emerging barbarian kingdoms. 

Finally, the abandonment of traditional Roman virtues ultimately led to the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, as expansion and wealth eroded the values of discipline, duty, and civic responsibility that once defined Roman society – known as the Mos Maiorum.

In his Agricola, Tacitus outlines the effects of abandoning traditional Roman virtue, writing, "Step by step they were led to things which dispose to vice, the lounge, the bath, the elegant banquet. All this in their ignorance they called civilisation, when it was but a part of their servitude".

By abandoning the traditional Roman virtues that made the Romans great, the family and the legion were weakened, and ultimately led to the collapse of the entire empire.

The decline and fall of the Roman Empire serves as a cautionary tale for Western Civilisation.

Once the West abandons the virtues and traditions that made it great, collapse is inevitable – because moral collapse always precedes civilisational collapse.