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Showing posts with label bs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bs. Show all posts

Saturday, July 20, 2024

"My Precious": Tolkien's Fetishized Ring

This is one of the most impressive pieces of bullshit I've ever read. She quotes BOTH Freud AND Marx, so you know it's going to be especially nonsensical:

"One of the most dramatic scenes in the first Lord of the Rings film, The Fellowship of the Ring, is the Council at Rivendell at which elf and dwarf nearly come to blows, while in a golden glow worthy of a Glassner jewelry advertisement, the Ring shines serenely on, untouched and untouchable. The focus shifts so that the combatants fade to soft-focus, and the ring in close-up fills the whole screen. We are all drawn to the Ring: readers, filmmakers, and a number of contributors to this volume. Although the Ring is a feature borrowed from ancient Germanic and Nordic myth, I shall argue that we are all in thrall to the Ring because of its contemporary relevance to the way we perceive, lust after, and use the "rings" or commodities of our own society. For me Tolkien's text is not an escapist fantasy but a challenging work that "reads" us as fetishists and offers us an alternative model for our relations with the world of things by means of sacrifice and gift.

Stockings, Rings, and Erotic Control

To explain what I mean by fetishism let us return to that cinematic frame of the chastely glowing ring. Like any close-up shot the effect is to separate the object from its context, so that it seems to exist alone. In that sense, every photographic or filmic close-up operates fetishistically in the sense emploved by the psychologist Sigmund Freud. For the fetishist the stocking, the glove, the fur or the individual body part becomes the focus of sexual desire in so far as it is fixed and separated off from any relation with the whole person or body. In his 1927 essay, "Fetishism," Freud attributes this desire for fixity to a refusal to fully accept that one's mother is not all-powerful-or, in Freudian terms, does not have the phallus. In pursuing and possessing an object that stands for his mother, the fetishist is able to own and control this maternal sexual power he both fears and loves. For a deep terror of the female genitals underlies such behavior and the fetish provides a safe substitute for the risky self-giving of the sexual act.

It is interesting that the One Ring of Power, which I want to suggest is viewed fetishistically, is twice gained as a result of literal separation from the owner's body, once by Isildur hacking off Sauron's finger, and again by Gollum biting off Frodo's finger. Separation marks the Ring from its creation, since it is forged by Sauron in secret, and is deliberately hidden from the makers of the other nineteen Rings of Power. Even these beneficent Rings, however, have something fetishistic about them because they were made in order to prevent the loss and decay of beautiful things. In aiming to create preventatives against loss, the elves share the fetishist's desire to fix the object of sexual arousal, so that it is untouched by age, decay, or mortality. We are told explicitly in Tolkien's myth collection, The Silmarillion, that the Noldor elves won't give up living in Middle-earth and yet they want also to have the bliss of those across the Sea in the Blessed Realm (S, p. 287).

There is, of course, an element of fetishism in much sexual behavior, but usually the stocking merely articulates a boundary of difference and is a means to arousal because it creates a distinction between flesh and clothing that draws attention to the naked leg above the stocking-top. For the lover, the stocking recapitulates the pursuit and uncovering of the desired body; for the fetishist, possession of the stocking is an end in itself. In the same manner we see the Ring's owners becoming transfixed by the Ring, rather than using it as a means to their desires. Chillingly, each owner, from the great Isildur to the hobbit Bilbo Baggins, comes to find it "Precious," and impossible to give up. They become as Smaug the dragon, hoarding treasure for its own sake and meeting threat of its removal with violence. Once Gollum becomes the Ring's possessor he finds himself drawn to underground places, and it is deep in the Misty Mountains that he loses it to Bilbo.

Critics have often noticed the lack of sexual activity in The Lord of the Rings. This, I believe, can be explained through the corrosive power of the Ring, which takes the focus away from the romantic quest and subsumes to itself the power of the erotic. Only with the destruction of the Ring can the characters truly love, marry and have children. And those who have borne the Ring for any length of time do not marry at all. While not wishing to send readers off on a genital-spotting expedition through Middle-earth, it is noticeable that Tolkien offers a most convincing Freudian vagina dentata (teethed vagina) in the ancient and disgustingly gustatory spider Shelob. She represents an ancient maternal power that swallows up masculine identity and autonomy. According to Freud, her castrating hold is pre- cisely what the sexual fetishist fears, and seeks to control by his possession of the fetishized object. She must be faced up to and outwitted before the Ring can be restored to the true maternal source of the fiery "Cracks of Doom." Appropriately, it is the equally ancient and yet empowering woman, Galadriel, who earlier renounced the temptation to be the all-powerful female principle, a "She-who-must-be-obeyed," who provides the light by which Shelob may be overcome. If men in the novel must give up fetishism, women must stand down from their frozen idealization, as Arwen does when she renounces immortality to marry Aragorn.

Paradoxically, although the fetish is intended as a means of erotic control-and a means of warding off the castrating female-its importance as the only possible means to erotic pleasure and the self-identity of the fetishist renders him in its thrall as if it were a god, in the manner of the totemic religious practice from which Freud took his original concept. This process is most graphically exemplified in the transmutation of the river-hobbit Sméagol into the craven Gollum. Possession of the Ring by murder of his friend leads to his self-division and alienation, so that he now speaks of himself in the third person, in babytalk- "Don't hurt us! Don't let them hurt us, precious!"- while the Ring is now personified and looked to as a source of aid and protection. Like early Native American totemists, Gollum has figuratively placed his soul inside the fetish for safe-keeping. Without the Ring, therefore, he is literally torn in two, and, as he replies to Faramir, "no name, no business, no Precious, nothing. Only empty" (TT, p. 335).

In his enthrallment Gollum gives the reader insight into the secret of the mighty Sauron himself. When he forged the Ring, Sauron actually placed some of his power inside, to his great cost when it was lost. Now having lost his physical body he lives a wraithlike existence, akin to that of his slaves, the Nazgûl, with his power transferred to the Ring. Indeed, he is now present mainly as an agent of unceasing surveillance, as a giant and lidless eye, which Frodo glimpses in Galadriel's mirror: "the Eye was rimmed with fire, but was itself glazed, yellow as a cat's, watchful and intent, and the black slit of its pupil opened on a pit, a window into nothing" (FR, p. 409). Like Gollum, Sauron is empty and there is no purpose in his will for power apart from the desire for the Ring itself. Rather, Sauron is completely nihilistic and seeks to reduce Middle-earth to ashes, to render everything as null as himself.

Rings and Things

It is central to Tolkien's conception that it is not just the depraved who fetishize the Ring but anyone who has to do with it, and even those who, like Boromir, merely see it occasionally. One can infer from this that Middle-earth is already a fallen world, enmeshed in evil. That this evil makes its effect through fetishism, however, marks the onset of a relatively recent form of alienation, particular to a modern capitalist economy. Fifty years before Freud's essay on fetishism the term was employed as a central concept in German philosopher Karl Marx's great critique of industrial capitalist economy. His groundbreaking book Capital describes the disconnected and phantasmal nature of our relations with the things we produce. As Marx observes, once a piece of wood is made into a table, it is still just a table, but once in the market "as soon as it steps forth as a commodity it is changed into something transcendent. It not only stands with its feet on the ground, but in relation to all other commodities, it stands on its head and evolves out of its wooden brain grotesque ideas." Any television advertisement showing a nubile woman caressing a car's bodywork provides evidence of our tendency to treat commodities as if they had a life of their own.

Marx went on to argue that in the modern market economy we lose relations between makers and consumers, and are estranged even from the objects of our own labor. Relationships between things are substituted for those between people, and these commodities acquire an idolatrous character as fetishes: they are totally of our own creation but we fail to recognize this. In our own lives this can take the form of a lifestyle constructed by means of designer labels, and of the near impossibility of finding out information about the producers of our clothes and our food.

I am not trying to suggest that The Lord of the Rings is a Marxist text and that Tolkien hoped for the Peoples' Republic of the Shire, but certainly by means of the Ring the novel provides a thoroughgoing critique of our dragonish tendencies to hoard- ing, idolatry, and alienation, the radicalism of which is revealed when put alongside these psychological and economic analyses. Moreover, Tolkien was a devout Catholic and the papal encycli- cals on social teaching in the twentieth century were as critical of capitalism as they were of state socialism. And while secular writers may offer insight into Tolkien's critique, it can be claimed that for an adequate response to the problem of fetishism a religious dimension is important.

For Tolkien, all created things are good, as he states in the myth of creation that opens his Silmarillion. And it is evident from Tolkien's various Indexes to the third volume of The Lord of the Rings that the world of objects is important to him, for he gives an entire section to the category, "Things" (RK, pp. 488-490). Looking down the list of items one finds an unusual combination of those one would expect, such as rings, weapons, flowers, and books, and the unexpected, such as a postal system, battles, meetings, dates, and languages. The reason for the inclusion of such immaterial concepts lies in Tolkien's adoption of a much more ancient usage of the word, "thing." The Oxford English Dictionary gives as its earliest example of the usual modern meaning of "thing" as inanimate object, a reference from 1689.3 Prior to that, a thing meant a matter, an event, even, in Anglo-Saxon and Old Norse and German, a Parliament, as Heidegger emphasizes in his essay on the Thing, "a gathering, and specifically a gathering to deliberate on a matter under discussion, a contested matter." It is from a matter brought forward for important deliberation, an event or experience, that our modern understanding of "thing" evolves as something separate from ourselves, and an object of our perception. In origin, however, there is something inherently com- munal in a thing as a matter between people in a meeting-place. "Thinging gathers," as Heidegger puts it. Today, when we are not in thrall to fetishized objects, we go to the opposite extreme and treat things as inert and of no account. Indeed, the object of desire in the December shop-window quickly loses all aura on the January sale rack.

Tolkien's theology so validates making and creativity that the most important objects in his fictional world are good. The relatively rare bad objects are inevitably dominatory or destructive in character, as, for instance, the Grond, the nasty battering ram named from Morgoth's mace, with an iron wolf-shaped head. Furthermore, there are not very many things in The Lord of the Rings, and the "Things" appendix is much shorter than that for people/creatures or places. After leaving the relatively thing-filled Shire, there are few objects, and most of these are "things" in the Middle English sense of the equipment one takes on a journey. The items taken by the Fellowship are few: food, cooking utensils, water bottles, pipes and pipe-weed, gray elven cloaks, and weapons. The world has been pared down to the few things necessary for sustenance and protection. Thus, the paucity of items renders them doubly precious, as, for example, the rope Sam suddenly remembers he brought from the Lórien boat:

"Rope!" cried Sam, talking wildly to himself in his excitement and relief. "Well, if I don't deserve to be hung on the end of one as a warning to numbskulls! You're nowt but a ninnyhammer, Sam Gamgee: that's what the Gaffer said to me often enough, it being a word of his. Rope!"

"Stop chattering!" cried Frodo, now recovered enough to feel both amused and annoyed. "Never mind your Gaffer! Are you try- ing to tell yourself you've got some rope in your pocket? If so, out with it!"

"Yes, Mr. Frodo, in my pack and all. Carried it hundreds of miles, and I'd clean forgotten it!" (TT, p. 237)

There is a distinctly comic tone to this scene with Sam dancing with delight over the rope while Frodo clings to a cliff-face, and the homely language contrasting with the extremity of the situation. This in no way detracts from the magical quality of the rope, indicated by its silken texture and silvery sheen. As it dangles down it evokes other salvific ropes, such as the line let down by the Biblical Rahab for Joshua's spies that then became the sign to spare her when Jericho was attacked.

With or without literary parallels, the rope has a fullness of presence in this scene. It is prompt when needed, beautiful and useful. Sam accords the rope full appreciation: "It looks a bit thin, but it's tough; and soft as milk to the hand. Packs close too, and as light as light. Wonderful folk to be sure" (TT, p. 238)! Sam refers here to the elvish makers of his rope and he begins to undo the fetishism of things by restoring the relation of object to maker, and the fixed object to potency and use.

Gift-giving and Ring-bearing

It is also important for the full presence of Sam's rope that it was given to him as a gift by the elves of Lórien. Indeed, practically every good object in the whole novel turns out to be a gift, beginning in the very first chapter with Bilbo's birthday party at which, according to hobbit custom, he gives rather than receives birthday presents. Gandalf too provides a gift in the form of fireworks, which in their spectacular self-destruction are a very pure form of gift-giving. Many of the company's weapons are gifts, the very food they eat comes from Rivendell, or Gollum's rabbit hunting (in the closest he gets to human community), or from the lembas of the Lórien elves. Galadriel and Celeborn are primarily gift-givers, whether by sight of the seeing-pool of prophecy or in the magic objects they give Sam and Frodo-the box of super-potent fertilizer and seed and the phial of light.

In granting gifts, Galadriel and Celeborn imitate the actions of the kings in the Norse and Anglo-Saxon sources from which Tolkien derived his Rings of Power. In one such source, the poem Beowulf, on which Tolkien was an important authority, the king, Hrothgar, is called a "ring giver" and he showers Beowulf with presents after Beowulf has killed the monster Grendel. Rings are gifts that bind the wearer to the giver in these ancient tales. And if one receives gold objects as gifts from the true owner, no harm ensues to the wearer.

A prominent example in Norse mythology is the ring, Draupnir, made by the dwarves Brokk and Eitri for the god Odin, which produced eight new rings every ninth night. It was this ring that the desolated Odin placed on the pyre of his son, Baldur, after the latter's death from the mistletoe dart, and which the son returned to his father as a keepsake via Hermod, who visited him in Hel.8 This enriching ring, marked by gift and sacrifice, is not usually mentioned as an influence on The Lord of the Rings, even though it is the only ring in the early sources that is voluntarily renounced. More frequently discussed by Tolkien critics is the dragon Fafnir's ring that was taken by his slayer, Sigurd, which led to his downfall and that of the whole house of the Volsungs.

What these Northern stories of rings show is that a ring stolen curses its possessor, whereas a ring given cements relationships, even beyond the grave. Both positive and negative connotations can be found in Beowulf, in which the hero first receives rings from Hrothgar, later becomes a ring-giver himself, and only dies when he seeks gold rings for his people from a dragon's lair. Similarly, the elven rings in Tolkien are beneficent, concentrating the powers and unity of their bearers, Galadriel, Elrond and Gandalf, all of whom were given the rings by others, which frees them from the trace of fetishism involved in the original forging, as does their willingness to sacrifice the power of their rings for the common good.

Letting Things Go

In order to benefit from these gifts, the protagonists of The Lord of the Rings have first to give up their possessions, their homes and families. The Quest of the Fellowship charts an attempt to deal with the fetishism of the object, and to restore relations with people and with things. The only way this may be secured is through acts of self-sacrifice, and by the destruction of the fetishized Ring. Unlike most quests, in which a beloved object is gained, the Fellowship is inaugurated to return the Ring to its place of origin, and thereby to reverse the fetishizing process that cuts it off from context, origin and materiality. The whole process is presented in comic mode in the opening of the novel when Bilbo, who had not been candid in his account of how he acquired the Ring from Gollum, sets about a potlatch scale sacrifice of everything and every object in his life. He throws a lavish party and gives away what remains of his dragon gold to make up for his Sigurd-like possession of it; he gives away his home and its contents, his hobbit existence itself, and goes off like some Indian holy man. Frodo then follows the same path and makes the sacrifice of giving up his happy life in the Shire to bear the Ring. Like the Ring he becomes separate, and is unable to return and be accepted by his own community. He is also badly wounded by the Morgul-knife of the Black Rider. So Frodo does not merely sacrifice the Ring but himself, as he indicates to Sam as they leave for the Grey Havens, "When things are in danger: someone has to give them up, lose them, so that others may keep them" (RK, p. 338). Note that it is not just people that are in danger but "things," the whole phenomenal cosmos, and it is all that that he must give up.

Frodo, who gave his life, is then himself given passage to the Undying Lands by Arwen to show that giving up is the means of restoration. And in order to show that an unfetishized life is possible, we are earlier given the example of Tom Bombadil and Goldberry, who are notably also the exemplars of romantic fulfilment in the story. They were left out of the films, and are often something of an embarrassment to critics as being extraneous to the epic form of the novel. In my view Tom and Goldberry's difference is deliberate and is important to the novel's purposes in offering a challenge to the fetishism rife in Middle-earth. For Tom Bombadil is the unfallen "master of wood, water and hill" precisely because he does not own them. Rather he receives everything as a gift and is himself a gift-giver, who is first seen bringing water-lilies to Goldberry. That a gift-economy is being opposed to fetishism is made quite plain by Tom's behavior with the Ring. To Frodo's disapproval he treats it with scant respect, throws it up in the air, and can see through its invisibility magic. He treats it, in fact, like a very pretty ring and nothing more.

Bombadil nicely illustrates the distinction Tolkien draws between magic and enchantment in his essay "On Fairy-stories": magic "is power in this world, domination of things or wills," whereas enchantment "does not seek delusion, nor bewitch- ment and domination; it seeks shared enrichment, partners in making and delight, not slaves." There is something cheerfully fictive and enchanted about Bombadil (signaled to us by his talking in verse), and this tells us that we too can transform our world into one of enchantment in which we see things as they really are: rings as pretty pieces of shining metal, and men and women as utterly real and yet utterly mysterious. In contrast to Tom's singing that rescues the hobbits from entrapment, the honeyed tones of Saruman are merely tricks of dominatory magic that fixate their audience so that they do not see what is really going on.

The novel ends, very simply, with Sam's return home from the Grey Havens. His hobbit home is a scene of simple objects appropriately arranged that deliberately recreates the yellow light, fire and waiting woman of Bombadil's house. The great and onerous quest ends with the restoration of the objectified world, which is now freed from fetishism for use:

And he went on, and there was yellow light, and fire within; and the evening meal was ready, and he was expected. And Rose drew him in, and set him in his chair, and put little Elanor upon his lap.

He drew a deep breath. "Well, I'm back," he said. (RK, p. 340)

The objects of fire, food, light, and shelter unite here to signify human warmth and community. By making Sam function as a chair for his little daughter in a family trinity, the text affirms the familial relation of objects to persons. Chairs are only chairs; they have no magical qualities, but they allow human connection-"Thinging gathers." The fetishized Ring is now replaced by the family circle. There is a triumphant emphasis on the word "and" in these two final sentences. Its repetition sets up a rhythm of connections between the different things in the scene that asserts their unity in combining to bless human life.

Now that objects are returned to full participation they can signify themselves. Galadriel's phial caught the light of the star Eärendil, and its magic came from participation in the source of light that Eärendil redeemed by rescuing it from fetishization by warring groups and returning it to its origin. Thanks to all that has gone before to redeem the object in The Lord of the Rings, any light can now have that same quality, when it serves human need and is valued for its utility and its beauty. Hobbits in the story seem to have been invented precisely in order to appreciate this ordinary domestic world of objects, just as the proper end of the ents is to love trees. In one sense, the whole complex nest of invented languages and creatures, histories and mythologies exists in order that, like Sam, we can see the ordinary world in an unfetishized manner. This is the "recovery" of vision that Tolkien himself states is the purpose of the fantasy or fairy-tale. And that he means the recovery of a right relation to objects as intrinsic to this recovery is seen in the following passage:

And actually fairy-stories deal largely, or (the better ones) mainly, with simple or fundamental things, untouched by Fantasy, but these simplicities are made all the more luminous by their setting. For the story-maker who allows himself to be "free with" Nature can be her lover not her slave. It was in fairy-stories that I first divined the potency of the words, and the wonder of the things, such as stone and wood, and iron; tree and grass; house and fire; bread and wine.

Tolkien calls this love "wonder," as a faculty of vision that accords full presence to that which one sees and is challenged by in its otherness. We learn to see things as if for the first time. This wonder is very far indeed from fetish worship because it celebrates the connections that fetishism denies. Treebeard's word for "hill" exemplifies this relationality:

"A-lalla-lalla-rumba-kamanda-lind-or-burúmë. Excuse me: that is part of my name for it; I do not know what the word is in the outside languages: you know, the thing we are on, where I stand and look out on fine mornings, and think about the Sun, and the grass beyond the wood, and the horses, and the clouds, and the unfolding of the world." (TT, p. 66)

In his sign for "hill" Treebeard reconnects the object with the world of phenomena, and of thoughts, and with himself. In ent language an object is signified by the range of its connections by which it achieves its true identity, not by separation, as in hill being defined by those things it is not: "hill" not "rill." Individuality thus comes from the multitude and variety of inter- connections. Again, "Thinging gathers."

The Lord of the Rings, then, is an ethical text that teaches us to give up dominatory and fixed perceptions in order to receive the world back as gift. The novel itself offers an inexhaustible plenitude of things, but they are not self-referential. For the elves, their songs and their gifts originate outside Middle-earth itself in a Blessed Realm just glimpsed by the reader before Frodo disappears forever. This realm is the source of the "light and high beauty" (RK, p. 211) that Sam perceives in the sky above the dreadful plain of Gorgoroth. The wonder and abundance of all the things that constitute Middle-earth have a divine origin, so that, as we leave the novel, we are somewhat melancholy. For we are unable to remain fetishistically fixated by the details of the story, but left rather with a craving for something more: a hunger for breaking our own unnatural attachment to things, a hunger for transcendence itself."

--- "My Precious": Tolkien's Fetishized Ring / Alison Milbank in The Lord of the rings and philosophy : one book to rule them all

Comments from r/counciloftherings:

"Some “Tolkien experts” certainly have some odd takes. Alison Milbank referring to Shelob as a “teethed vagina” gotta be at the top though 😅
Worse than David Day? What do you think? 🤔"

"Freud was a hack who brought 95% of his theories back to sex and sexuality, usually involving the parents of the kids.
A great deal of his ideas have been widely discredited by the psychological community.
So no, Shelob was definitely not some metaphor for teethed vagina."

"Freud has inspired generations to prove him wrong"

"Isn’t incest like the number one most searched genre of porn? As much as I’d love to discredit him, I fear he was right and actually ahead of his time… "

"No. It has some forced popularity since it's comparatively easy to shoot and a fine excuse to for different age combinations between actors. Here are the 2023 statistics:
https://www.pornhub.com/insights/2023-year-in-review"
[Ed: In the US, step mom was #11 in the list and that's not even real incest. There were no other incest terms in the top 14 and it was not in the top 5 categories either nor was it one of the top 5 categories more viewed compared to the world. the Philippines. In France even step mom didn't appear, much less other incest related terms (odd, given France's history with incest). Mexico, the UK, Japan, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Spain, Poland, Australia, Ukraine, the Netherlands, Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Sweden didn't have incest as popular by any measure either. Egypt had step mom at #11/#14 in keywords]

"Someone can make whatever interpretation they want, but so much of literary analysis is really just grasping for straws or applying a framework for the sake of it. Sure you can apply almost any kind framework for interpetation but that doesn't make that particular analysis valuable or relevant except to a niche academic group"

"The author is desperate to convey their intelligence."

You just described 90% of literary analysis"

"I have no words... Not just that Shelob description but this entire paragraph makes zero sense."

" Isildur was married as well (though before wearing the ring). Tom also had Goldberry. Her getting basic lore stuff wrong makes her lose any credibility"

"Her use of “for any length of time” is an academic weasel phrase designed to invalidate any counter examples. Only Sauron, Gollum, Bilbo, and Frodo count, because they’re the ones that fit her theory. Everyone else can be discarded because they’re inconvenient to her."

"And Bilbo was a noted bachelor before the Ring... Gollum was an exile (who probably lacked opportunity), and Sauron was a bachelor for thousands of years prior to the Ring. So really only Frodo fits cleanly."

"This is the most absurd and offensive thing I’ll read today. And I say this w confidence in today’s political climate. Lol."

"lol at the emphasis on “Crack of Doom”"

"Why
did it take me so many years to run into this joke"

"Man people will just publish anything these days huh"

"I’m just curious why they asked her to write a chapter. She gets basic lore facts wrong."

"Short answer is that publishing companies are often lazy and academic writers are sometimes desperate to get their name out there (sometimes for vanity but sometimes to save their position or career).
The publishing world (especially in academia adjacent topics) is sort of a weird one. It's mostly who you know until you've established yourself. Sometimes bigger titles are willing to roll the dice on someone if they have solid enough connections. I'm assuming that's what has happened here. I'm in the world of "The Philosophy of Art & Literature" which is sort of a weird half way point between the two disciplines. I was once asked to write a book review for a journal over Bettany Hughes' "The Hemlock Cup" (I believe that's the title. It's been years ago).
I'm all for book reviews, but this is a historian/Archeologist writing about Historical facts uncovered in archeological digs. I had to respectfully decline this ask. They wanted a "Philosopher" to write about this book from a "Philosophical point of view" (whatever that means) because it touched on the life of the Historical Socrates, but it was way out of my realm of study. They asked me because 3 of my other philosopher friends (with whom I'd produced other works) had declined for the same reason. Some folks will simply take whatever writing gigs they can get, give it a go, and fall flat on their face."

""Lack of sexual activity"? Tom Bombadil wanders the forest singing songs about he can't wait to get home and bang Goldberry."

"Right? Plus Gimli the simp/hair fetishist"

"WTF was this author smoking?"

"Not everyone should be an academic. Like this one for example."

"In the list of worst takes on Tolkien I need to mention the Belgian nun Mellie Uyldert. She explains all the symbolism and archtypes from Tolkiens work without any knowledge of the writer.
More info https://tolkiengateway.net/wiki/Symboliek_van_Tolkien%27s_In_de_ban_van_de_ring
For anyone wo understands Dutch, grab your copy here; https://www.veelboeken.nl/alle-boeken/niet-gecategoriseerd/symboliek-van-tolkiens-in-de-ban-van-de-ring-9789020248340/"

"You know, it's actually cool to just enjoy LOTR and keep your batshit insane takes to yourself"

"The representation of Shelob as a vagina dentata is a nonsense.
First and foremost, Tolkien’s entire oeuvre is deeply rooted in his serious philological studies, mythological leanings, and, above all, in his devout Catholicism, through which overt sexual symbolism is hardly ever his primary concern.
In contrast, Shelob is more straightforwardly presented as a monstrous creature in the tradition of mythic beasts, dragons, and trolls, designed to evoke fear and peril within a high-fantasy context, rather than conveying psychoanalytic themes.
This makes it easier for us as readers to understand Shelob’s dangerous role as a stumbling block for the heroes, mainly Frodo and Sam, to fit into the larger narrative framework of “The Lord of the Rings” as an epic journey full of diverse challenges. Her menace represents just another of the monstrous challenges; among others are the Balrog or the Nazgûl, which stand for emblems of heroism and perseverance, not some act of gendered symbolism.
More significantly, it is the very broad mythological context within which Tolkien elaborates his world and the creatures: among them, monstrous spiders are a symbol of danger and chaos but never directly representing female sexuality.
So, reading Shelob exclusively through the perspective of vagina dentata completely fails to acknowledge the wider mythopoetic and narrative significance that her character holds within the tightly woven universe created by Tolkien."

"Sometimes a giant evil spider is just a giant evil spider."

"This is a shippers desperate attempt to justify applying horny thoughts to a text wholly absent of erotica."

"I'm currently selling tickets to a genitalia-spotting expedition through Middle-Earth."

"Legolas: ARAGORN, WHY AINT WE FUCKIN!!?
Aragorn, Gotta, deliver the ring dude.
Legolas: AH, right...we fuck later?
Aragorn: HELL YEAH, I love you bro!"

Thursday, November 04, 2021

Xi Jinping and Eggs

There is a story that periodically gets shared on social media about lessons Xi Jinping purportedly learnt from his father, told in Xi's voice (e.g. on Successpedia Asia).

I will paste the full text at the end of this post, but for now I will just note that it involves eggs and noodles and the morals of the story are to note take advantage of others as appearances may be deceiving, not to trust too much in previous experiences and that if you think of others, you will get good luck. No wonder that this sort of insipid drivel gets widely shared, as it strikes all the usual feel-good notes and comes with clear morals.

If nothing else, it is questionable if Xi Dada would deign to have such a story told about him. However, other things clue us in to the fact that this is almost certainly not by/about Xi.

For one, the Mandarin version of this story is in Traditional characters - which are not used on the Mainland. Xi, or someone approved by him, chronicling the story using Traditional characters would be a huge boo-boo (and someone transcribing the words into Traditional characters to make Xi look bad is a story that only a China shill could and would believe).

For another, given the cult of personality, it beggars belief that he would admit to being "a selfish child" who "never consider the feelings of others", whose "companions left me one by one".

Digging around, the earliest version of the story (in English) is found on Accountancy Asia (which Successpedia Asia also credits for the story) dated April 4, 2018, but the source is dodgy at best:

I read a recent message about the lessons he learned from his father while he was young and the influence on him. The lessons about truth, experience and generosity was very well encapsulated in this short story.

No details are given about where James Lee (the post's author) read the message. Given that Accountancy Asia is filled with the usual Business content (buzzwords and motivational nonsense), this does not fill us with confidence about the provenance of the story. Interestingly, James Lee is from Singapore, so it is unlikely that he transcribed the anecdote into Traditional characters (though the text raises more questions - for example some characters are in Simplified Mandarin ("事业" vs "事業").

Searching in Mandarin is more fruitful.

One search result is from Cofacts, a Taiwanese website, and credits the story to 李嘉誠 (Li Ka-shing). Given that Li Ka-shing is a Hong Kong-er, the Traditional characters at least cohere more with the purported author of the piece. However, if Li Ka-shing had really said that, there would surely be some English version of the story credited to him. As it is, there're only 354 Google hits for Li Ka-shing (in Chinese characters) and part of the text of the story (in Mandarin). Interestingly, this compares to 2,010 results for Xi Jinping's name (习近平, in Chinese characters) and the same text string - I guess it's clear who is more popular.

Tellingly, the earliest Mandarin version of the story (with Xi Jinping's name) is also Accountancy Asia. So it seems this is ground zero of the story being attributed to Xi Jinping, in both English and Mandarin.

Looking for the Mandarin text (without attributing it to either gentleman), one finds the earliest version (at least according to Google) dating to Jul 4, 2014, published on a Taiwanese website 學習電子報, whose mission (according to its banner) is to share short stories with big morals. So this whole egg story seems to have been written by them as one of the usual Chinese morality tales. It even comes with even more moralising at the bottom, which I will reproduce at the bottom of this post.

Original story text (in both English and Mandarin) posted on Accountancy Asia:

As a child, I was a selfish child.
I always think of myself first with good things, never consider the feelings of others.
As a result, the companions left me one by one. I am very upset over it, and laid the blame to others.

One night, my father cooked two bowls of noodles. There was a white egg on one bowl and none on the other.
My father asked me, which bowl you prefer?
During then, eggs were very precious food. It was only on a festive or occasion like birthday that we had the privilege having egg in a meal.
I would not miss such opportunity and with no hesitation, I chose the bowl with eggs.
My choice was wrong. I was surprised that my father’s bowl actually contained two eggs underneath the noddle.
I regretted it and hated myself for being too impatient.
Noticed my reaction, my father smiled and said to me:
“Son, you must remember, what is visible to the eye might not be true, one who want to take advantage of others will eventually suffer a big loss.”

The next night, my father cooked two bowls of noodles again.
There was still a white egg on one bowl and none on the other.
My father asked me to choose. I learned from the previous experience and chose the bowl with no eggs on the surface.
The father watched me silently and did not utter a word.
I quickly picked up the chopsticks, stirred the noodles to find the eggs underneath it.
I was disappointed that there was no egg except the soup and noodle in the bowl.
At this time, my father said to me thoughtfully:
“Son, you must remember, do not trust too much in previous experience, as life sometimes deceives you.
However, you don’t have to worry or sad over it. Life experience is something you cannot learn from textbook.”

On the third night, my father cooked two bowls of noodles.
It looked exactly the same as the previous nights.
My father asked me to choose and I did not act rashly.
Instead, I said to my father:
“Dad, you have sacrificed so much for me and this family and you get to choose out of my respect to you!”
The father did not decline and chose the bowl with an egg on it.
I guess there was definitely no egg in the other bowl. To my surprise, I had two white eggs underneath the noodle in the bowl.
My father looked up and his eyes was full of kindness. He said to me lightly:
“Son, you must remember, when you think about others, good luck will bestow upon you.”
I was stunned.

Since then, I have taken these three lessons as my principles of life. Regardless of whether it is for people or things, the first thing that comes to mind is always the interests of others. As my father rightfully said it, luck bestow upon me one after another. My career testifies to the principles of life I learned from my father.

 

中国国家主席习近平的父亲送給他的三句話:

小時候,我是一個自私的孩子,
有什麼好的東西,我总是想到自己,
從不顾及別人的感受,
結果同伴一個個离我而去。
為此,我十分苦惱,
常常在背后指責別人的不是。

一天晚上,父亲煮了两碗面,
一碗面上有一顆白生生的鸡蛋,
而另一碗面看上去什麼都沒有。

父亲問我,你吃哪一碗?

那時鸡蛋是十分珍貴的食品,
若非逢年過節或生日,是很难吃到的,
我當然不會放過這樣的機會。
於是,我毫不猶豫地选择了有鸡蛋的那一碗。

事實上,我的选择是错误的,
正當我洋洋得意地吃完那顆鸡蛋時,
我驚訝地发現父亲的碗底竟然藏著两顆鸡蛋,
我後悔不已,恨自己過於心急。

見此,父親微笑著對我說:
「孩子,你务必記住,
眼睛看到的未必是真实的,
想占別人便宜的人最終會吃大亏。

第二天晚上,父亲又煮了兩碗面,
仍然是一碗面上有一顆白生生的鸡蛋,
而另一碗面看上去什麼都沒有。

父亲让我选择,這一次我學乖了,
选择了面上沒有雞蛋的那碗。
父親默默地注視著我,一句話也沒說。

我趕緊拿起筷子,將上面的面條扒開,
我滿以為下面會臥著兩顆白生生的鸡蛋,
但很快我失望地發現,碗底除了清湯,什麼也沒有。

這時,父亲意味深長地對我說:
「孩子,你一定要記住,
不要過分相信以往的經驗,
因為生活有時也會欺騙你。

不過,你不用氣惱,也不用悲伤,
全當是一次人生体验吧,
這是你從书本上無法學到的東西。」

第三天晚上,父亲同樣煮了兩碗面,
還是一碗面上有一顆白生生的鸡蛋,
而另一碗面看上去什麼都沒有。

父亲讓我先选,這一次我沒有貿然行事,
而是情真意切地對父亲說:
「爸爸,您是長輩!又為我和這個家庭付出了太多,還是您先選吧!」

父亲沒有推辭,直接选了上面有一顆鸡蛋的那碗。

我猜想,剩下的那碗肯定沒有鸡蛋,
但出乎意料的是,我非常幸運,碗底臥着两顆白生生的鸡蛋。

父亲抬起頭,眼里滿是慈愛,他淡淡地對我說:
「孩子,你千萬要記住,
當你為別人着想时,好運就會降临到你的頭上。

父亲的話令我慚愧不已。

從那以後,我把這三句話當作了自己的人生準則,无论是為人还是处事,我首先想到的总是別人的利益,果然如父亲所言,好运接踵而至,我的事业也做得風生水起。
~ 习近平

 

Moralistic postscript from Taiwanese website 學習電子報: 

報長閱讀心得:

教育孩子,是需要完整性的,最忌諱半調子,像文章中的父親 笑遊人間就覺得他的教育方式很棒,他同一件事用了三天的時間,教育孩子三個道理:

一、孩子,你務必記住,眼睛看到的未必是真實的,想佔別人便宜的人最終會吃大虧。

二、孩子,你一定要記住,不要過分相信以往的經驗,因為生活有時也會欺騙你。

三、孩子,你千萬要記住,當你為別人著想時,好運就會降臨到你的頭上。

但…若能再多上一點:「孩子,你千萬要記住,當你為別人著想時,某些人未必會替你著想,但千萬不要因為這少數的人而放棄你良善的心」,那應該就會更完整了。
 

而半調子的教育,就像 學習電子報所分享的第一篇電子報 分蘋果的故事,文中的第二位媽媽,原本是想教育出懂得分享、懂得為人著想的孩子,但最後卻教育出一個自私又會說謊欺騙的孩子。

其原因就在於,小孩看透了媽媽的心思,表面上做到媽媽希望他做的事來獲得他所想要的結果,而媽媽卻看不透小孩的心思,而一步一步的教育出一個會鑽漏洞、懂的做表面、說謊欺騙的孩子出來。

本文中的父親就不同了,他看透了孩子的心思,所以同一件事用了三天的時間來教育孩子,矯正孩子在教育中所產生出來的偏差想法。

家庭的教育與學校的教育都是同等重要,學校教導著學生們各種知識,而家庭卻是教育孩子們的行為與品性,並矯正孩子在教育過程中所產生出來的偏差想法。








Rough translation:

Newspaper's commentary:

One needs to be holistic in educating children. The most taboo half-tone [?] is like the father in the article who, laughing, thinks his method of teaching is great. With the same method, he taught his child 3 morals over 3 days:

1) My child, you need to remember that what you can say may not necessarily be true. Those who want to take advantage of others will suffer greatly in the end.

2) My child, you must remember not to be too trusting of past experiences, because life sometimes tricks on you.

3) My child, you absolutely must keep in mind that when you are considerate of others, fortune will smile on you.

But... you can add: "My child, you can never forget that when you are considerate of others, some people may not do likewise to you. Yet, don't let this small minority make you give up your good heart." That would make it even more complete.

And half-tone [?] education is like the story of dividing the apple found in the first edition of the learning e-newsletter. The second mother in that story originally wanted to raise a child who knew how to share and be considerate of others, and in the end raised one who was selfish and lied and deceived others.

The reason for that was that the child divined his mother's ulterior motives and did what his mother wanted to get what he wanted, but the mother was unaware of this and steadily raised a kid who was good at finding loopholes, keep up appearances, tell lies and deceive others.

The father in this story is different. He could read his child's mind, so he used the same method to teach his child over 3 days, correcting the deviant thoughts that arose in the child during the process of instruction.

Home and school instruction are equally important.  Schools impart knowledge, while at home behavior and character are taught, and deviant thoughts that arise in the child during the process of instruction are corrected.

Saturday, June 05, 2021

Anti-France Fake News: Africa and Decolonisation

Under the paradigm of post-colonialism, Western countries have been and will always be blamed for anything that goes wrong in ex-colonies, which have no agency.

Perhaps the most egregious form of this mindset that I've found is an article by Mawuna Remarque KOUTONIN which actively promulgates fake news (i.e. makes shit up) about France's role in post-colonial Africa.

In 14 African Countries Forced by France to Pay Colonial Tax For the Benefits of Slavery and Colonization published on Mediapart, he makes many dodgy claims:

When Sékou Touré of Guinea decided in 1958 to get out of french colonial empire, and opted for the country independence, the french colonial elite in Paris got so furious, and in a historic act of fury the french administration in Guinea destroyed everything in the country which represented what they called the benefits from french colonization.

Three thousand French left the country, taking all their property and destroying anything that which could not be moved: schools, nurseries, public administration buildings were crumbled; cars, books, medicine, research institute instruments, tractors were crushed and sabotaged; horses, cows in the farms were killed, and food in warehouses were burned or poisoned.

The purpose of this outrageous act was to send a clear message to all other colonies that the consequences for rejecting France would be very high...

On June 30, 1962, Modiba Keita , the first president of the Republic of Mali, decided to withdraw from the french colonial currency FCFA which was imposed on 12 newly independent African countries. For the Malian president, who was leaning more to a socialist economy, it was clear that colonisation continuation pact with France was a trap, a burden for the country development.

On November 19, 1968, like, Olympio, Keita will be the victim of a coup carried out by another ex French Foreign legionnaire, the Lieutenant Moussa Traoré...

On January 1st, 1966, Jean-Bédel Bokassa, an ex french foreign legionnaire, carried a coup against David Dacko, the first President of the Central African Republic.

To zoom in on 3 lies promulgated by Koutonin in the extract above:

1) I am unable to find citations for "infrastructure" the French "destroyed" in 1958 when they withdrew from Guinea.

According to the BBC, the French just "[deprived] the country of all technical expertise and worse, removing all key government files, even ripping out office telephones".

A research article on Cold War History makes some very general claim about the French destroying infrastructure, but the only details given are that France told teachers holidaying outside Guinea not to return - but 78 still stayed.

Meanwhile, the Encyclopedia Britannica says the French reacted by "recalling all their professional people and civil servants and by removing all transportable equipment".

The most extensive account of Guinean independence that I could find, The Challenge of Guinean Independence, 1958-1971, a PhD thesis by Mairi Stewart MacDonald, merely reports that:

Yet Paris continued to behave as though Guinea could be crushed. Messmer reported the rapid progress of France’s administrative withdrawal on 27 October. Magistrates, teachers, clerks, labour inspectors, postal workers, railway workers, and other civil servants, senior and junior, French and African: most were leaving or had already gone

MacDonald notes that France behaved like a petulant child diplomatically, but this is very far from Koutonin's wild accusations.

If what Koutonin claims happened really happened, it would be odd that such a spiteful and major act of destruction is not documented anywhere outside this one blog.

2) Modibo Keïta (Mali) was not simply a socialist as the article claims, to make it sound like the French got rid of him because he would threaten French hegemony.

He was also a brutal dictator who imprisoned political opponents and brutalised the people:

As in other one-party states of the time, citizens were expected to participate in mass rallies in praise of Modibo Keita and the socialist state. Cheikh Oumar Diarrah has compared Modibo Keita’s Mali to Maoist China; ideological dissenters were purged without hesitation. In 1961, when respected leaders of the colonial period, such as Fily Dabo Sissoko and Hammadoun Dicko, joined protests against the government’s decision to leave the French monetary union and create a new Malian currency, they were imprisoned along with 89 other demonstrators and accused of treason. Sissoko and Dicko were condemned to death, then pardoned and sentenced to forced labour for life. Both died in 1964 while serving this sentence...

The Keita regime grew progressively more dictatorial as its economic policies failed. The National Assembly was dissolved in 1968, after which Modibo Keita ‘governed by ordinance’. Since the regime’s central planning failed to alleviate the economic malaise and essentially taxed rural peasants to subsidise the urban population (a process that continues today), failed economic policies became the subject of rural dissent at this time. The peasants of Ouolossébougou revolted against the fixed prices of the government boards in June 1968: 15 peasants and merchants were arrested. A day later, when many of their fellow villagers attempted to liberate the prisoners, the police shot and killed two people and injured several others.

--- Censorship: A World Encyclopedia

The popular unrest due to a poor economy and fears of a purge led to the Traoré coup, which was popularly supported:

In January 1968, the National Assembly dissolved itself and authorized Keita to appoint a legislative delegation. The People’s Militia (Milice Populaire) of 3,000 young men was reactivated, and following the tactics of their model, the Red Guards in Mao’s China, set out to uncover corruption and purify the party. The militia manned roadblocks, conducted searches of home and person at will, detained many on the least pretext, and engaged in torture. The militia rapidly became the most hated element of Keita’s Cultural Revolution. The excesses of the militia affected the personal liberties of many and, in practical terms, it became a terror to ordinary citizens. By late 1968, there was widespread discontent with Keita and his policies, not mobilized into a political force capable of overthrowing his regime, but constituting a favorable background against which a coup d’e’tat could take place.

The move for an immediate coup was promoted by Lt. Moussa Traoré, an instructor at the Kati school, where a number of junior officers supported him. Traoré's timing was dictated by fears of his own imminent arrest and that of his fellow officers...

The following day, massive street demonstrations took place in support of the coup, and people shouted "down with Modibo; down with the militia."

--- Mali: A Search For Direction / Pascal James Imperato

So this coup had nothing to do with France.

3) Bokassa (in the Central African Republic) was not an agent of the French despite what Koutonin claims.

Dacko, who Bokassa overthrew, had actually been backed by the French and the French were surprised by his coup:

Reassured by the presence of French administrators and technicians in every post of importance, by the backing of French colons, miners, and businessmen who felt they would control him, Dacko proceeded rapidly to consolidate his power... in retrospect, clearly backed by his French councillors, Dacko seized power...

The unexpected intervention of a forty-four-year-old Mbaka army officer, Jean- Bedel Bokassa, who claimed to be Boganda's nephew, took Bangui and the French by surprise.

--- The Central African Republic: The Continent's Hidden Heart / Thomas E. O'toole

France then got Dacko to stage a counter-coup in 1979 to remove Bokassa. It is strange how France used someone they controlled to unseat someone else they also controlled. Maybe the author will claim that they were controlled by different factions of the French government.

Consider too that Bokassa was also a French soldier. So using the Koutonin's "logic" this French civil war (or power struggle, at least) must have been going on for more than a decade.

Of course, alternatively, maybe many political/military figures (often the same thing in Africa) used to work for the French military because they were the former colonial power, i.e. the primary source of employment for soldiers. Just because someone used to be a French soldier does not mean that all his subsequent action are directed by France (as Koutonin claims for all the other African coups).

Doubtless many other wild accusations in Koutonin's article are also, at best, wrong. One wonders if he came up with all this fake news himself in his attempt to blame the French for everything that has gone wrong and is still going wrong in Africa since colonisation.

Tuesday, December 08, 2020

Covid hysteria: "How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?"

I've seen this shared a few times, and finally got annoyed enough to write a response:

Franklin Veaux
 
This time, re-posted by the aptly named "Insufferably Intolerant Science Nerd"

 
Original post:

"[Edit Nov 10, 2020: See new information at the end]

There are two problems with this question.

  1. It neglects the law of large numbers; and
  2. It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.

The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.

Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.

The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?

What about the people who survive?

For every one person who dies:

  • 19 more require hospitalization.
  • 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
  • 10 will have permanent lung damage.
  • 3 will have strokes.
  • 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
  • 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.

So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:

  • 3,282,000 people dead.
  • 62,358,000 hospitalized.
  • 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
  • 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
  • 9,846,000 people with strokes.
  • 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
  • 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.

The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.

Edited to add:

Wow, this answer has really blown up. Many people are asking about the sources, so here’s the basic rundown:

This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.)

The statistics I used in this answer were compiled from a number of different sources. I spent quite a bit of time writing the answer. Unfortunately, I don’t have my search history in front of me, so I’ll attempt to re-compile them.

Some of the sources include:

What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19

Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage.

               Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed                       signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis,                     inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients.

Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems.

What We Know About the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19

“Some of the data that we’re getting now from the China studies, one study that was just published in JAMA Neurology showed that 36.4 percent of patients had neurologic issues,” said Dr. Sheri Dewan, neurosurgeon at Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage Hospital in Winfield, Illinois. “One of the review articles that came out at the end of February discussed the possibility of virus traveling into the olfactory neurons, through the olfactory bulb, and into the brain.”

Lifelong Lung Damage: A Serious COVID-19 Complication

“Holes in the lung likely refers to an entity that has been dubbed ‘post-COVID fibrosis,’ otherwise known as post-ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] fibrosis,” said Dr. Lori Shah, transplant pulmonologist at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center.

            ARDS occurs when fluid builds up in tiny air sacs in the lungs called alveoli. This reduces                     oxygen in the bloodstream and deprives the organs of oxygen which can lead to organ failure.

            Post-COVID fibrosis, according to Shah, is defined as lung damage that’s irreversible and can                 result in severe functional limitations from patients, such as cough, shortness of breath, and                     need for oxygen. […]

              According to The Lancet, in a piece titled, “Pulmonary fibrosis secondary to COVID-19: A                   call to arms?,” the first series of hospitalized patients in Wuhan, China showed that 26 percent required intensive care and 61 percent of that subset developed ARDS.

What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19

Physicians report that patients hospitalized for Covid-19 are experiencing high rates of blood clots that can cause strokes, heart attacks, lung blockages, and other complications, Parshley reports.

For instance, physicians are seeing an uptick in strokes among young patients with Covid-19.

The blood clots also can travel to other organs, leading to ongoing health problems. For instance, pulmonary embolisms, which occur when the clots block circulation to the lungs, can cause ongoing "functional limitations," like fatigue, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and discomfort when performing physical activity, Parshley reports. Similarly, blood clots in the kidneys can cause renal failure, which can cause life-long complications.

Heart damage

Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage.

               Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed                       signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis,                     inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients.

Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems.

The numbers in this answer were made from extrapolations about percentages of COVID-19 long-term effects reported in a range of studies on Google Scholar, assuming a hypothetical 100% US infection rate and a 1% fatality rate. Of course, in reality, a high infection rate would cause the mortality and comorbidity rates to skyrocket, so if anything, these numbers are conservative.

Wear your damn masks, people."

 

Response:

There's massive selection bias going on here

All the linked studies are of people who were hospitalised and are not reflective of the general population who get covid, the vast majority of whom have mild symptoms or are even asymptomatic. Even in February, 81% of cases were found to be mild - and this is just for people with symptoms. The CDC's current best estimate is that 40% of infections are asymptomatic.

So let us examine one of the hysterical claims, that 18% of those infected with covid "will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives" (based on 1% mortality and "for every one person who dies... 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives".

This is presumably based on the first linked paper, "Association of Cardiac Injury with Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 in Wuhan, China", which reports that "cardiac injury occured in 19.7% of patients during hospitalization". For simplicity, let's assume that cardiac injury is permanent and that results from that one hospital can be extrapolated to the general population.

Another paper, Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis estimated that even among those aged over 80, only 14.8% of those infected with covid would require hospitalization (for those aged 70-79 it was only 7.9% - and it got way lower for those even younger).

Since both papers (on cardiac injury and hospitalization) are based on Chinese data, we can use China's median age of 38 to do our calculations. Rounding up, we can take the hospitalization rate of 0.443% for age 40-49 (note: the median age of the US is also 38, though obviously comorbidities will mean Americans will suffer more from covid than Chinese - even absent factors like pre-existing immunity and the BCG).

So based on Chinese data, we'd expect 0.087% of those who get covid to have "permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives". In other words, out of every 10,000 people who get covid, less than 9 will have "permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives" (assuming no re-infection).

To put it another way, if you get covid, your odds of "permanent heart damage for the rest of your life" are 1 in 1,150. In contrast, in the US in 2018, your odds of *dying* from a motor-vehicle crash are 1 in 106. So maybe the US should shut down the country over car crashes. And this assumes that everyone will get covid - a paper by Neil Ferguson et al estimated that only 81% of the US and British populations would be infected over the course of the pandemic. When you consider that Ferguson was behind the discredited Imperial College model that wildly over-exaggerated covid cases, and has repeatedly over-estimated risks in the past, we are confident in treating 81% as an upper bound. So the true odds of covid complications would be even lower.

Furthermore, covid has become less serious as the epidemic has progressed as we become better at treating it and the virus seems to be mutating to become less deadly; naturally long term side effects would diminish too

Plus even ignoring this, 1% as a mortality rate was exaggerated: even as of 9 Sep, the estimated IFR (infection fertility ratio - taking into account all cases) for covid was significantly lower than 1%

Here is a peer reviewed paper published by the WHO and authored by John Ioannidis, a Stanford professor who's worked in medicine and epidemiology
 

"Results I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was 0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118–500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%."

This was based on papers published as of 9 Sep

Perhaps one might still try to object, claiming that if the health care system were overwhelmed, not just would death rates rise but also long term disabilities. Yet, note that the same paper with data on hospitalization rates by age also noted that the estimated IFR for mainland China was 0.66% - based on data between Jan 1 and Feb 11, where 74% of deaths occured in Wuhan. During much of that period, hospitals in Wuhan were overwhelmed, so the 0.66% IFR already accounts for some of that effect.

More specifically, another paper, Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January–February, 2020, modelled the time-delay adjusted IFR for Wuhan by day and even at its highest (presumably corresponding to when hospitals were most overwhelmed), the upper estimate never exceeded 0.5%.
 
Note too that covid is not unusual in having long term side effects - seasonal influenza is linked to elevated heart attack and stroke risk, as well as pneumonia and even disability.

To say nothing of how the RCTs tell us that there is poor evidence for masks, but that is another story.

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