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Showing posts with label guns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label guns. Show all posts

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Are Trans People Overrepresented as Mass Shooters?

A pertinent question in the wake of the Jesse Strang (Jesse Van Rootselaar) Tumbler Ridge mass shooting is whether trans people are overrepresented as mass shooters, which would indicate that this is a population at elevated risk of committing violence (we already know they are at elevated risk of committing sex crimes).

Unsurprisingly, the "fact checkers" assure us that this claim is misinformation. For example, FactCheck.org goes all the way back to 2013 to make its claim. Yet, in 2013, trans mania was not as widespread as it is today (this was before gay marriage got rammed through) and so we would expect there to have been fewer trans mass shooters.

So I decided to look at more recent years to see what the numbers said.

The Williams Institute at UCLA says that 0.6% of those aged 13 and older are trans, and in this number they include the "gender nonconforming".

In 2024, the FBI said there were 24 active shooter incidents and in 2023, 48. In 2022, there were 50 and in 2021 there were 61. There were 40 in 2020 and 30 in 2019, and 27 in 2018.

So we have 280 in total from 2018-2024 (7 years).

If trans people were represented in active shooter incidents at the same rate as in the general population, we would expect there to have been 1.68 trans people involved in active shooter incidents in this time (assuming 1 perpetrator per active shooter incident; there were 333 incidents and 345 shooters between 2000 and 2019 so this is a pretty robust assumption)

Here're the trans or non binary perpetrators of mass shootings between 2018 and 2024 that I could find:

1) September 2018 - Snochia Moseley (MTF)
2) May 2019 - Alec McKinney/Maya Elizabeth McKinney (together with Devon Michael Erickson) (MTF)
3) November 2022 - Anderson Lee Aldrich (non-binary)
4) March 2023 - Aiden Hale (Audrey Elizabeth Hale) (FTM)

The FBI data for 2025 active shooter incidents is not out yet, but consider that in August 2025 we had Robin M. Westman (Robert Westman) (MTF).

This is just the list of officially "confirmed" trans or non binary perpetrators. I am not including cases like Dylan Butler or Natalie "Samantha" Rupnow, even if The National Desk reports that "Butler identified as "genderfluid" and used "he/they" pronouns, according to his TikTok videos", so in reality trans and non binary people are going to be even more overrepresented.

So trans and non binary people were definitely overrepresented from 2018-2024, even if the absolute numbers are small. Even if we count Alec McKinney as half a shooter due to its collaboration with Devon Michael Erickson, we still get 3.5 trans shooters vs the expected 1.68, an overrepresentation of 108% (counting Alec McKinney as a full shooter, it's 138% overrepresentation). Another way of looking at it: if trans people were shooters in proportion to their population, you would expect 1.25% of the population to be trans or non binary (or 1.4% if you count Alec McKinney as a full shooter).

Thursday, January 01, 2026

The Good Guy with a Gun

The claim that a "good guy with a gun" is the only thing that stops a "bad guy with a gun" seems to be rejected by most experts.

It is reported that out of at least 433 active shooter attacks in the US between 2000 and 2021, only 22 (i.e. 5%) were ended by an armed bystander shooting the attacker. Of these 22, 10 were off-duty police officers or security guards, so only 12 were stopped by the traditional conception of the "good guy with a gun" (i.e. a civilian who happened to be going about his day who heroically shot the bad guys).

One objection to this statistic is that we cannot count gun-free zones in the statistic.

So I went back to the data to try to exclude them.

The original data set comes from the Advanced Law Enforcement Rapid Response Training Center at Texas State University, and the Active Attack Data excludes domestic shootings and gang-related attacks.

From 2000-2021, there were 467 incidents listed, so the dataset seems a bit different. It's been over 3 years since the article was published, so presumably some missed attacks got added (none were due to an armed bystander shooting the attacker).

What sort of places are gun-free zones?

The U.S. Concealed Carry Association (which is pro-gun) lists K–12 schools and school zones, Colleges and universities, Federal buildings, Private businesses with posted signage, Hospitals, places of worship and entertainment venues and Public transportation (by which they refer to most parts of airports).

Yet, almost none of these prohibitions are absolute. For example, college and university gun-free zones depend on the state, and even though public, private and religious schools from elementary to high schools are regulated by the Gun-Free School Zones Act of 1990, there're exceptions including being a licensed concealed carrier (depending on state). And naturally, private businesses set their own rules (which may not even be legally binding).

Regardless, let us be as conservative as possible and exclude all locations which might be gun-free zones: factories/warehouses, offices, retail, school and other. We are thus left with outdoor shootings.

Out of 95 attacks that were outdoors, their resolutions were as follow:

Fled - 27
Shot by citizen - 2
Shot by off duty officer - 2
Shot by police - 29
Subdued by citizens - 6
Subdued by police - 14
Suicide after police arrival - 5
Suicide before police arrival - 6
Surrendered - 4

So only 2/95 (2%) of outdoor active shooter attacks were ended by a "good guy with a gun".

Outside of possible gun free zones, the "good guys with guns" look even more impotent, tying for the lowest category of resolution. Certainly, it is categorically, unequivocally false that "the only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun, is a good guy with a gun"; we can see that 3 times as many outdoor attacks ended with the attacker being subdued by citizens as shot by citizens.

Since there were only 6 such cases, I could check their resolution:
2011 January - Arizona, Tuscon - Tackled to the ground
2017 December - Baltimore, Maryland - Girlfriend pulled him out of the car
2018 April - Indianopolis, Indiana - I couldn't find anything on this, nor could Gemini
2020 May - Ft. Leavenworth, Kansas - Hit by a car
2021 April - San Diego, California - Tackled
2021 August - Wrens, Georgia & Graniteville, South Carolina (he was 33, not 30 as in the dataset) - Restrained

So it looks like what is even more effective than "a good guy with a gun" is "unarmed good guys with their bodies".

Of course, pro-gun people are going to claim that there're so few instances of "good guys with guns" stopping gun attacks only because so few people carry guns, and/or that there're so many restrictions on guns, and that if guns were more common, there would be more "good guys with guns" stepping up.

Let us leave aside the point that even if we did indeed get more "good guys with guns" with laxer gun laws, this wouldn't be a good thing since there would be more gun attacks (there is a general correlation between gun-friendliness and firearm homicide rates, even if the effect is not that strong).

So let us restrict our analysis to more gun-friendly states to see if the "good guy with a gun" effect is stronger there.

Looking at the 10 states (i.e. the top quintile) that Ammo.com rates as most gun-friendly during the same period of time, 2000-2021, we get 67 attacks in total, and of these only 5 were stopped by a citizen shooting the attacker. 7.5% is higher than 5%, but still not that great, and it still is very far from supporting the claim that "the only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun, is a good guy with a gun".

If we restrict the analysis to outdoor attacks, as per the main analysis for all states, a grand total of 0 cases (i.e. 0%) were stopped by civilians shooting the attacker.

So in conclusion, we can be even more sure that "the good guy with a gun" is basically a myth and ineffective to stop active shooter attacks.

Of course, one can come up with further copes, for example one is that cases where the perpetrator flees could be because they were shot at by "good guys with guns", but besides being a very tedious process to code all of these cases, there won't be enough information in news reports to rule out this possibility.

In any event, the hypothesis that shooters are cowards and flee because of "good guys with guns" is not supported by the data.

From the original article, we can see that in 184 cases which ended after the police arrived, the attacker only surrendered 15 times (8.2% of cases).

If shooters are really cowards and are so easily scared by guns, you would expect most of them to surrender when the police arrive (where we can be confident that 100% or close to 100% of the police have guns).

In contrast, before the police arrive, we can be confident that much less than 100% of people around the shooter have guns.

Anyhow, even more involved copes can be devised (one I've seen is that just showing a gun to someone will scare him into not committing a crime, so "good guys with guns" can deter even without firing their guns). But people who are emotionally vested in their beliefs can't be convinced anyway, since if nothing else they can and do fall back on making moral arguments about the right to self-defence (so the song and dance about the efficacy of the "good guy with a gun" is really just a smokescreen).

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Links - 11th September 2025 (1 - Uvalde/Buffalo Shootings)

This was in my drafts folder, so finishing it off:

Unlocked doors were 'first line of defense' at Uvalde school - "The Uvalde massacre began after the 18-year-old gunman entered the school through a door that could only be locked from the outside then got inside a classroom that had a busted lock"

Barack Obama on Twitter - "As we grieve the children of Uvalde today, we should take time to recognize that two years have passed since the murder of George Floyd under the knee of a police officer. His killing stays with us all to this day, especially those who loved him." Facebook - "I thought this was satire, but apparently Obama is really that tone deaf. What happened to the guy? He got radicalised or something?" It got worse in the subsequent tweets - he went on to promote nonsense totally irrelevant to Uvalde

Uvalde, Buffalo Shootings Expose the Myth of the ‘Good Guy With a Gun’ - "For those lawmakers, it's more guns that are needed in America, where the number of firearms now surpasses the number of people living in the United States. Just hand them to the right people – the "good" people – and bad shooters will be stopped in their tracks, they argue.  That didn't work in Texas, where armed law enforcement personnel at the scene after the shooter first shot at his grandmother were unable to prevent the bloodbath. The school also has a school resource officer, though authorities said Thursday the officer was not on site at that time (after saying previously that the officer was). Texas authorities this week were fielding accusations that people trained to respond to such incidents didn't move quickly enough, possibly costing lives.  It didn't work May 16 in Buffalo, where an armed, off-duty security guard and former police officer was unable to stop a shooter on an apparent racist rampage. The security guard, along with nine Black supermarket shoppers, was killed.  It's also not a common outcome in previous active shooter episodes, according to the FBI. From 2000-2019, 119 of 345 active shooters committed suicide, the bureau said in a long-trend report. Another 119 were apprehended by police, 67 were killed by police, and five are at large. In only four cases did citizens kill the shooters – and none of those four happened at an educational setting. The last two years show a sharp increase in active shooter incidents but similar trends when it comes to the role of armed "good guy" citizens. Of 103 shooters, 54 were apprehended, 18 were killed by law enforcement, 18 committed suicide and six were killed by civilians, the FBI reports.  "Unless you are going to put a SWAT team in every school, 24/7, what exactly are you proposing to do?" says Mike Lawlor, a University of New Haven criminal justice professor who previously served as Connecticut's undersecretary for criminal justice policy. Even with trained law enforcement on the scene, "They were outgunned by this kid who was wearing body armor and had an AR-15" assault weapon, notes Lawlor, who as a state legislator authored the state's "red flag" gun law allowing firearms to be denied to people deemed a danger to themselves or others. When law enforcement responds almost immediately, shooters have nevertheless been able to kill many people before being stopped. In August 2019, a gunman opened fire in downtown Dayton, Ohio, and police "neutralized" him 30 seconds after he fired his first shot, authorities said at the time. But because the shooter was armed with a high-capacity magazine, he was able to fire dozens of shots quickly, killing nine and wounding 27. The FBI reports don't detail shootings of civilians who were trying to save others but mistaken as the original shooters. But there have been incidents when a "good guy" perished for his efforts to defend himself or others from an active shooter. In Alabama in 2018, Emantic Fitzgerald Bradford Jr. – hailed as a hero by people who said he pulled out his gun to protect them after shots rang out in a shopping center – was himself fatally shot by police who believed Bradford to be the perpetrator.  The romantic notion of a "good guy" avenger is rooted in American pulp fiction and crime fiction, says Georgetown University professor Susanna Lee, author of the book "Hard Boiled Crime Fiction and the Decline of Moral Authority." Characters such as Sam Spade and Philip Marlowe – always shooting bad guys and never missing – feed a myth of being both invulnerable and righteous by virtue of carrying a gun, she says.  "This is something particular to American fiction, the romanticized notion of the man who is alone and armed," Lee says. "And it's particularly American on a second level – that being that Americans are uniquely not just willing but eager to mix fiction and reality."

Gaetano Catelli on Twitter - “Ms. Gomez … was one of numerous parents who began encouraging—first politely, and then with more urgency—police and other law enforcement to enter the school. After a few minutes, she said, federal marshals approached her and put her in handcuffs” "The last thing law enforcement wants is for innocent civilians to inadvertently block getting a clean shot at the perpetrator, or worse, become a hostage." Of course the solution is even more guns, then when everyone gets shot, demand yet more guns

Qasim Rashid, Esq. on Twitter - "The Parkland Cops ran away. The Buffalo Cop was killed instantly. The 3 Cops at Uvalde were overpowered, then waited 40 min to enter the school. Veteran Cops repeatedly failed—but we’re supposed to expect Lunch Lady Doris & School Nurse Betty to stop a terrorist with an AR-15.😑"

Texas elementary school shooting death toll rises to 19 children - "Nineteen pupils aged between seven and 11 years old have been shot dead along with two of their teachers by an 18-year-old gunman who has also been killed in the latest school mass shooting to blight America - the deadliest since Sandy Hook almost a decade ago. Salvador Ramos - a fast food worker described as a lonely child who was bullied for his lisp and for wearing eyeliner - carried out the massacre at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, around 11.30am Tuesday after shooting his grandmother at a house elsewhere in the city, reportedly after an argument about failing to graduate.  Police and officials said Ramos, who had purchased a pair of rifles for his 18th birthday and showed them off on social media, fled the scene of the first shooting in a car armed with a handgun, 'possibly' a rifle, and wearing body armor. He ditched the vehicle close to the school, went inside and 'started shooting children, teachers, whoever was in his way.'... Ted Cruz, Republican senator for Texas, led the response - repeating well-worn arguments that 'restricting the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens' to prevent mass shootings 'doesn't work'. The solution, he said, is to put armed officers on school campuses... Ramos's social media was full of photos of guns, which he bought legally on his 18th birthday" Too bad the media can't claim this is an anti-Hispanic hate crime

'I got a lil secret I wanna tell you': Texas school shooter Salvador Ramos hinted at plans to attack

No, these photos of a person wearing a skirt aren’t of the Uvalde, Texas school shooter

How Many Schools are in The U.S (Statistics & Facts) - 2022 - "As of 2020, there are 130,930 recorded number of K-12 schools in the United States of America (U.S.A), according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)" Even if you only have one guard per school, that's a third the number of active duty Army personnel: to guard against a black swan event too (there were 34 in 2021)

Meme - Coin Higgins @EoinHiggins_: "18 children dead in Texas and ICE is on scene which means many parents will have to risk detention in US concentration camps while checking if their kid is alive" Cschwing #sogratefulforSPN...: "A border patrol agent stopped the shooter" FierceBombshell @BombshellSlays: "Only because the shooter wasn't White. White shooters get rewarded." Like clockwork. Weird how US police shoot minorities on sight, but they are still overrepresented in prisons No one's going to obsess about his race since he's not white

Meme - @brownskinsugarr: "I bet you the shooter was a racist white piece of shit" "This Tweet has been deleted."

The Uvalde, Texas, school district had an extensive safety plan. 19 children were killed anyway. - "Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District had doubled its security budget in recent years, according to public documents, in part to comply with state legislation passed in the wake of a 2018 school shooting in which eight students and two teachers were killed. The district adopted an array of security measures that included its own police force, threat assessment teams at each school, a threat reporting system, social media monitoring software, fences around schools and a requirement that teachers lock their classroom doors, according to the security plan posted on the district’s website."

Richard Hanania on Twitter - "TX Sen. Ted Cruz offered a solution  “have one door into and out of the school…armed police officers at that door” — Cruz said “if that happened” “the armed police officers could have taken him out and we’d have 19 children/2children still alive” #Uvalde" "The stupid party never ceases to amaze! They're all architects now. Washington will mandate every school will have one door, one way in, one way out. Good guy with gun at entrance. Global war on doors. What about windows? Leave it to the sates. Talks with such conviction too!"

Richard Hanania on Twitter - "Given all the Libs of TikTok videos they've been watching, you'd think conservatives would have some doubts about the mental stability of teachers and the wisdom of arming them."

The Worst Failures in Uvalde - The Atlantic - "The police errors make for an alluring target, because they are so glaring and because they appeal to both sides of our intense partisan drive, catering simultaneously to progressive skepticism of police and conservative desire to change the subject away from guns. As the epidemic of school shootings continues, many policy makers have argued that better policing and security protocols are the best way to keep children safe when violence strikes. Without minimizing the police failures, though, I worry that too much focus on them risks eclipsing the bigger picture, which is that the gravest failures happened before the gunman arrived at the school and opened fire. The fundamental problem, of course, is that semiautomatic weapons are easily available to nearly anyone in the United States with relatively little trouble. Some reporting indicates that the Uvalde shooter was a victim of bullying, and though this may have played a role in his psychology, bullying is universal and timeless; readily accessible assault rifles are not. Gun-rights advocates used to try to sidestep this argument, arguing that prospective killers would find other ways to kill if guns were harder to find, but these days, with their position ascendant in the legal system, they hardly bother, instead pointing out that courts are interpreting the Constitution to block most gun laws. They are correct, but that doesn’t negate the simple fact that easy access to guns is what makes this country different. The guns and ammunition used in Uvalde were legally purchased, and no police officer could do anything about them until the shooter began committing crimes—by which point even an effective police response would have merely limited, not stopped, the slaughter, given how much death a shooter armed with an AR-15 can inflict, and how quickly... Sir Robert Peel, the father of modern policing, argued that the goal of a police force was not catching criminals after the fact but preventing crime, and it’s hard to see how police might have been able to prevent the Uvalde massacre. So-called red-flag laws, which allow courts to temporarily seize guns from people if they might be a danger to themselves or others, may indeed be a commonsense measure, but there’s precious little evidence that they are useful in stopping mass shootings. (They seem to work better for preventing suicides.) Armed guards at schools, better preparation, fortifying schools—all of these have been proposed as good solutions, but few of them seem to work all that well in practice. Schools in Texas had already been “hardened,” but that didn’t prevent the horror in Uvalde. The school district had drilled for a mass-shooting event. No armed officer was stationed at the school when the gunman struck. (In Buffalo, a retired police officer serving as a security guard engaged and fired at the shooter, and authorities say he saved lives by buying time; despite this apparent heroism, 10 people died.)... demanding that police respond more swiftly and courageously once the slaughter of schoolchildren has already begun is itself the mark of a broken society, which no longer seems able to ask that we prevent such killings in the first place"

911 dispatcher accused of hanging up on store employee during Buffalo shooting call - "A 911 dispatcher has been placed on leave and may lose her job after allegedly hanging up on a supermarket employee hiding during this weekend’s shooting rampage in Buffalo, New York... An assistant office manager at Tops Friendly Market, where 10 Black people were killed by a white gunman Saturday, told The Buffalo News that she was whispering during the 911 call because she feared the shooter would hear her. The store employee alleges the dispatcher shouted at her, asked why she was whispering — then hung up. The employee said she had to call her boyfriend and tell him to dial 911 and report the shooting."

James T. Hodgkinson: Bernie Sanders supporter, strongly anti-Trump - "“Trump is a Traitor. Trump Has Destroyed Our Democracy. It’s Time to Destroy Trump & Co.” he posted on his personal Facebook page on March 22.  “Republicans are the Taliban of the USA”" MSNBC host Joy-Ann Reid likened the US Christian right to the Taliban Only the right is capable of inciting violence

NBA players had to perform a day after a racist murdered Black people in Buffalo (headlined as "White fans were entertained by Black athletes a day after a racist killed Black people in Buffalo — this is what white supremacy looks like") - "Sports only serve as an escape from society if you’re white." When you thought shit leftist takes couldn't get even worse. Clearly blacks shouldn't entertain whites, and when they lose their jobs this will be due to "white supremacy"

Stephen L. Miller on Twitter - "The car still did it according to Twitter publishing. This is called proving the point."

Psaki says Biden has NO plans to visit Waukesha after the deadly Christmas parade attack Biden will travel to Buffalo on Tuesday following mass shooting, official says

Mad Vax, Yo: Buffalo Shooter Was a Left-Leaning COVID Nazi, Wore Hazmat Suit to School

Meme - "The teachers, 4.651 seconds after we arm them: *CRT book, knives, rifles* LEAD THE REVOLUTION COMRADES!"

Uvalde Cop With Punisher Logo On Phone Was Waiting To Hear From His Dying Wife During Shooting - "The cop was seen to be checking his phone as the rampage unfolded at Robb Elementary and many people pointed out how he had a Punisher logo as his lock screen.  Some called out the irony of a police officer supporting the defiant Marvel vigilante even though he was seemingly doing nothing to stop a gunman killing children and teachers. Podcast host Albert Jaragua Corado wrote on social media: "That cop in Uvalde having his lock screen be the punisher logo and him being scared to take on an active shooter is truly the perfect encapsulation of how cops see themselves vs who they really are."  However, the reality behind the now viral image is more complex and devastating.  The officer has been named as Ruben Ruiz and his wife, Eva Mireles, was one of the two adult victims in the shooting... "To those who haven’t bothered to read even the news that’s been reported in your rush to judgment, he attempted to engage but was removed from the building and disarmed."

On heels of Uvalde massacre, California passes bill removing requirements for schools to report threats to law enforcement - "Instead of mandatory reporting of violent behavioral issues to law enforcement, school officials will now have the option to deal with them internally; a model that failed miserably in Florida and led to the Parkland shooting massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in 2018, which saw 17 people murdered and another 17 injured."

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

The Hidden Message of American History X / Qat / Ignored Mass Shootings


Kaguya’s Top Gal @hayasaka_aryan: "*Derek Vinyard from American History X*
*gets raped in prison
*immediately becomes a gay liberal
What did the filmmakers mean by this"


Wilfred Reilly @wil_da_beast630: "No, you trite hack - it's literally called "qat." I tried it once. The men, who often do fairly well, spend a ton of their money on speed, and their women and children go hungry. This is not "somehow the fault of Western white women," or some such shit."
Alan MacLeod @AlanRMacLeod: "Is that drug called "Western imperialism"?"
"The drug that is starving Yemen. Famine in Yemen could be avoided if the men chewed less qat"

As usual, "brown" people have no agency and the only problems they can ever have are white people's fault.


"HOW CAN yOU IGNORE GUN VIOLENCE IN AMERICA? A SHOOTER JUST MASSACRED A DOZEN PEO-"
NRA: "HE WAS BLACK."
*going back to daily life*
Amiri King @AmiriKing: "There has been a mass shooting in Akron Ohio. 27 people shot. Can you tell me why you are hearing this from me and NOT mainstream media?"

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

Is the US non-Black and non-Mexican murder rate really lower than Denmark and Norway?

I saw this meme which didn't pass the sniff test:


Jess Piper @piper4missouri: "It's the fucking guns."
Owen Benjamin @OwenBenjamin: "If you took away all blacks and Mexicans, america has a lower per capital murder rate than Denmark or Norway. We don't have a gun problem ..."

So I decided to look into it:

According to Macrotrends, in 2021 the US murder rate was 6.81 per 100,000 population (the CDC says it was 7.8 but let's use one data source for simplicity and data comparability [the data ultimately comes from the World Bank but the web UI rounds to the nearest whole number, which is imprecise]; note that this is being generous to the original claim).

Meanwhile, in Denmark it was 0.80 and in Norway it was 0.54.

The FBI's 2019 Crime in the United States (the 2021 version does not report Latino offender numbers) Expanded Homicide Data Table 6 reports murders by race and ethnicity of offender. Unfortunately, while whether the offender is Black or African American is reported, whether he is Mexican is not. So I will use "Hispanic or Latino" as a proxy for "Mexican" (which is again arguably generous to the original claim, depending on whether you think Mexicans are more or less murderous than the average Latino).

In 2019, out of 6,391 murders where the race of the offender was known, 3,218 offenders (50.4%) were black.

In 2019, out of 4,448 murders where the ethnicity of the offender was known, 874 (19.6%) were Hispanic or Latino.

For simplicity, let us assume that there're no black Hispanic or Latino people, and that the proportion of murderers in the population matches that in the subset for which race and ethnicity is known.

Therefore, with this simplified calculation, 70% of murders in the US in 2019 were committed by Blacks and "Mexicans".

To get a non-Black and non-"Mexican" murder rate, we need to transform the original homicide number and correct it for population.

According to the CDC, in 2021 there were 26,031 homicides in the US. Removing Black and "Mexican" murderers, we get 7,809 homicides. According to the US Census Bureau, 13.6% of the population is Black or African American alone and 19.1% is Hispanic or Latino (only 3.0% are of two or more races), and the midpoint of the April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2022 population estimates is 332,368,179.5.

Removing the Black and "Mexican" populations, we get a population of 223,683,785.

So the non-Black and non-"Mexican" murder rate is 7,809 / 223,683,785, which works out to 3.49 per 100,000 population.

Note that this is much higher than Denmark and Norway. Macrotrends does not seem to list countries by homicide rate, but according to Wikipedia's list (which makes the UNODC data sortable), that would put the US at about the 93rd highest homicide rate in the world, tied with the Cook Islands.

The only European OECD member with a higher homicide rate than the non-Black, non-"Mexican" US is Latvia (3.6, 90th).

Note that the "Mexican" proportion of known offenders is only slightly higher than their share of the population, so restricting the analysis to the non-Black population is not going to change the results much.

Related:

US Murders, Guns and Outlier Cities

Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Links - 19th December 2023 (1 - Guns)

Lawyer dies after his hidden gun goes off during MRI scan - "A lawyer was accidentally shot by his own gun after he failed to remove it before going into hospital MRI scanning room. Leandro Mathias de Novaes took his mother for a scan at Laboratorio Cura in São Paulo, Brazil... The 40-year-old is said to have failed to tell hospital workers that he had a gun on him after being told to remove all metal objects before entering the scanning room. The magnetic field from the MRI scanner pulled the pro-gun lawyer’s weapon was pulled from his waistband and went off, shooting him in the tummy... As well as working as a lawyer, the victim also shared pro-gun content for his 12,000 followers on TikTok and Instagram."

Firearm availability and homicide rates across 26 high-income countries - "Across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides."
Weird. We're told that criminals will always be able to get guns so there's no point regulating them

Household Firearm Ownership Levels and Homicide Rates Across U.S. Regions and States, 1988-1997 - "in areas where household firearm ownership rates were higher, a disproportionately large number of people died from homicide"
So much for more guns, less crime

Firearm Availability and Homicide: A Review of the Literature - "The available evidence is quite consistent. The few case control studies suggest that households with firearms are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide. International cross-sectional studies of high-income countries find that in countries with more firearms, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide. The strongest evidence came from cross-sectional analyses of United States regions and States. In summation, places with higher levels of gun ownership are places with higher homicide rates. Most studies, cross sectional or time series, international or domestic, are consistent with the hypothesis that higher levels of gun prevalence substantially increase the homicide rate"

Is There a Link Between Mental Health and Mass Shootings? - "The reality is that people with mental illness account for a very small proportion of perpetrators of mass shootings in the U.S., says Ragy Girgis, MD, associate professor of clinical psychiatry in the Columbia University Department of Psychiatry and the New York State Psychiatric Institute.  In 2021, Dr. Girgis, an expert in severe mental illness, and colleagues from Columbia’s Center of Prevention and Evaluation authored the first report on mass shootings using the Columbia Mass Murder Database (CMMD), which examined the relationship between serious mental illness and mass shootings...  The public tends to link serious mental illnesses, like schizophrenia or psychotic disorders, with violence and mass shootings. But serious mental illness—specifically psychosis—is not a key factor in most mass shootings or other types of mass murder. Approximately 5% of mass shootings are related to severe mental illness"

Highest murder rates in the U.S. - The most deadly cities - "Here are murder rates in 65 major U.S. cities (cities with greater than 100,000 residents) for 2019
1. St. Louis, Missouri
2. Baltimore, Maryland
3. Birmingham, Alabama
4. Detroit, Michigan
5. Dayton, Ohio
6. Baton Rouge, Louisiana
7. New Orleans, Louisiana
8. Kansas City, Missouri
9. Memphis, Tennessee
10. Cleveland, Ohio"
Gun nuts keep claiming that it's the cities with the strictest gun control which have the highest gun crime, which proves that gun control is useless. But Guns & Ammo rates these states (in terms of laxness for gun control): Missouri - 17, Maryland - 44, Alabama - 16, Michigan - 25, Ohio - 22, Louisiana - 26, Tennessee - 12.  So we can see that it's not the states with the strictest gun control that have the cities with the highest murders

Meme - "Mental illness, culture, indifference, inhuamnity, fame, evil
The GUN MAGAZINE"
I interpret this as excuses gun nuts give for gun violence because they want to pretend the guns aren't the problem

State gun laws, gun ownership, and mass shootings in the US: cross sectional time series - "States with more permissive gun laws and greater gun ownership had higher rates of mass shootings, and a growing divide appears to be emerging between restrictive and permissive states."
One gun nut first claimed that the war on drugs explained most gun murders, then when I showed him that the murder rate had fallen since it started, claimed this showed more guns lead to fewer murders. When I presented him with data showing a correlation between gun ownership and gun homicides he claimed it was useless, since it included suicides, self-defence, justified police killings and accidents. Besides being provably wrong about suicides, he was pretending murder wasn't correlated with homicide. But anyway, I showed him this as well as the definition of homicide and he ignored this study and still insisted that suicides were in the homicide data

Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime in the U.S. An Ecologic Study - "The findings do not support the hypothesis that higher population firearm ownership rates reduce firearm-associated criminal perpetration. On the contrary, evidence shows that states with higher levels of firearm ownership have an increased risk for violent crimes perpetrated with a firearm. Public health stakeholders should consider the outcomes associated with private firearm ownership."
He had no cope for this

Waco siege - Wikipedia - "The Waco siege, also known as the Waco massacre, was the law enforcement siege of the compound that belonged to the religious cult Branch Davidians. It was carried out by the U.S. federal government, Texas state law enforcement, and the U.S. military, between February 28 and April 19, 1993. The Branch Davidians were led by David Koresh and were headquartered at Mount Carmel Center ranch in the community of Axtell, Texas, 13 miles (21 kilometers) northeast of Waco. Suspecting the group, who had licenses to manufacture and sell weapons, of stockpiling illegal weapons, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms (ATF) obtained a search warrant for the compound and arrest warrants for Koresh as well as a select few of the group's members. The incident began when the ATF attempted to serve a search and arrest warrant on the ranch"
Ruby Ridge - Wikipedia - "Ruby Ridge was the site of an eleven-day siege in 1992 in Boundary County, Idaho, near Naples. It began on August 21, when deputies of the United States Marshals Service (USMS) initiated action to apprehend and arrest Randy Weaver under a bench warrant after his failure to appear on firearms charges. Weaver refused to surrender, and members of his immediate family, and family friend Kevin Harris, resisted as well."
One pro-gun person who claimed all gun laws went against the second amendment claimed Waco and Ruby Ridge were examples of militas resisting a tyrannical government. How odd that the resistance only happened when there was a raid, rather than being pro-active. And how strange that there were only 2 examples despite decades of unconstitutional tyranny

The epidemiology of self-defense gun use: Evidence from the National Crime Victimization Surveys 2007–2011 - "Compared to other protective actions, the National Crime Victimization Surveys provide little evidence that SDGU is uniquely beneficial in reducing the likelihood of injury or property loss."
Some gun nuts object that this doesn't explicitly ask about defensive gun use. But I looked at the questionnaire, and it asked respondents to describe the incident. So presumably there's a conspiracy among respondents to suppress defensive gun use

Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime - "There is supportive evidence that shall-issue concealed-carry laws may increase total and firearm homicides. Evidence for the effect of permitless-carry laws on total homicides is inconclusive. Evidence that shall-issue concealed-carry laws may increase violent crime is limited."
Some gun nuts claim that this doesn't matter, because freedom is scary. I hope their neighbours exercise their freedom to own nuclear bombs

Meme - "We don't dial 911 *rifle*
*Old woman clutches heart*
SORRY GRANDMA... *aims rifle*"

Meme - "GUNS AREN'T THE PROBLEM. PEOPLE ARE THE PROBLEM."
"THEN WHY DO YOU WANT THE PROBLEM TO HAVE GUNS?"

The effects of gun control on crime: Evidence from Brazil - "In 2003 Brazil enacted strict gun control legislation which banned the carrying of concealed weapons and made it much harder to buy a gun. The legislation also included the promise of a future referendum on prohibiting the sale of all firearms (which did not pass in the end). In this interview, Rodrigo Schneider discusses his work examining the effects of the legislation on crime and homicide. The most conservative estimates suggest a drop in gun-related homicides of 12.2% one year after the law came into effect, representing 4,400 lives spared in 2004. Robbery, which is often at gun point in Brazil, decreased by 15%"

Guns, Crime and Brazil’s Tumbling Murder Rate - WSJ - "John Lott Jr. suggests that loosening gun restrictions in Brazil has led to a precipitous drop in the murder rate. This headline and story imply a causative relationship between the Bolsonaro policy changes and the drop in homicides.  Reforms made prior to President Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (such as better law-enforcement coordination) are much more likely to be the cause of the decline in the past 20 years. In fact, the biggest declines in the murder rate occurred before Mr. Bolsonaro reached office.  Research in Population Health Metrics persuasively finds that much of the decline before 2017 can be attributed to weapons-collections programs begun in 2003. The parts of the country that removed guns from the streets in these collection programs actually saw fewer firearms deaths. To suggest that dropping homicide rates from the past few years can be attributed to Mr. Bolsonaro’s gun policies belies nearly 20 years of evidence to the contrary."
"According to various press reports, some of the Brazilian states have instituted a comprehensive program of police reforms including better data collection, crime mapping, police training and coordination of military and civil forces. Policy focuses on violent criminal gangs. Also, restrictions on late-night sales of alcohol are being used.  In short, Brazil is using policies known to work."

Meme - "Please somebody help me. I think I'm going crazy. It's embarrassing but I might hurt somebody please why won't anybody help me!?"
*ATF gives man rifle and goes back to talking to the CIA, FBI [?] and another Federal agency*"
The same people who keep going on about how the government is incompetent and can't do anything right also go on about elaborate government conspiracy theories

Meme - "I carry a small gun to compensate for my huge pecker."

Meme - "Someone:puts 1mm of their toe on someone's property
Americans: *Rick Astley* "You know the rules, it's time to die""

Opinion: Signs that we’ve finally reached a tipping point on guns - "The once-powerful NRA is mired in scandal following years of lavish spending (it’s also legally questionable, according to the New York attorney general, though the group has rejected that allegation). Nearly a million members have walked away since 2018. The NRA is now in a fight for survival amid lines of credit that appear to be maxed out and internal battles over the group’s future. Meanwhile, Democrats — once wary of mentioning gun control at all — have finally rediscovered their voice...   Gun control activists got there by adopting an approach Republicans successfully deployed over the past four decades: Instead of focusing solely on federal reforms, gun safety advocates have invested heavily in influencing state and local policy. Everytown credits at least 51 pieces of state-level gun safety legislation passed in 2022 to their state-by-state strategy. During the same cycle, Moms Demand Action says it elected 125 gun reform candidates to office at every level of government.   After a full generation suffering under the ever-present threat of domestic mass murder, the American people might finally have reached a breaking point. Seventy-one percent of US adults want stricter gun laws, according to a recent AP-NORC poll. Over the summer, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that 59% of American adults think it’s more important to control gun violence than to protect gun rights (35%) — “its highest point in nearly a decade.” These figures have surely factored into Democrats new assertiveness on gun control... Even Republican voters part company with the GOP on the subject: An AP-NORC poll conducted last year found that nearly half of self-identified Republican voters supported passing tougher gun laws.  “Republicans look completely unreasonable when they won’t even discuss background checks, gun safety measures like storage or red flag laws,” Del Percio warned. “Republicans running in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, all big Second Amendment states, all lost. Republicans have to learn that you can be for the Second Amendment and also for background checks.”

If every kid carried rocks, would playgrounds be safer? - "A graphic circulating on the Internet reads, "A kid on the playground throws a rock at another kid. The teacher gives rocks to all of the kids since only a good kid with a rock can stop a bad kid with a rock.""
I've seen gun nuts unironically agree

BBC Radio 4 - Best of Today, ‘This violence has to stop’ - "‘You heard in the clip a 12 year old boy saying, you know, I don't know, it'll be me. You know, he told me, no matter how well-behaved I am, if I go out on the street I don't know what's going to happen to me, you know. He said you know as I become a man, as I become an older boy he was worried that he might be a target… vulnerable teenagers get groomed, people equip them with, you know, knives and other other things and then they all start carrying knives and it becomes more of a trend'"
Weird. I thought if criminals know their victims are likely to be armed, they're not going to attack them. So everyone carrying knives can only be a good thing

How Often Are Guns Used For Self-Defense? - "In their National Self-Defense Survey, published in 1995, Kleck and Gertz extrapolated that figure to the entire adult population of 200 million, concluding that Americans use guns for self-defense as often as 2.1 to 2.5 million times a year.   Researchers have found several issues with Kleck’s estimates. While the adult population in the United States in 1993 was around 200 million people, not all of them owned guns — only about 42 percent did. So extrapolating the survey results to the entire adult population yields an overestimate. David Hemenway, director of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, who first addressed “extreme overestimates” of DGUs 25 years ago, pointed out problems with Kleck’s math in 1997:
Guns were reportedly used by defenders for self-defense in approximately 845,000 burglaries. From sophisticated victimization surveys, however, we know that there were fewer than six million burglaries in the year of the survey and in only 22 percent of those cases was someone certainly at home (1.3 million burglaries). Since only 42 percent of U.S. households own firearms, and since the victims in two thirds of the occupied dwellings were asleep, the 2.5 million figure requires us to believe that burglary victims use their guns in self-defense more than 100 percent of the time...
Researchers consider the NCVS to be more reliable than randomized telephone surveys because respondents are asked screening questions that help weed out false reports, something that typically isn’t done with telephone polling. Kleck, who is now retired, argues that respondents underreport DGUs because they fear the authorities. In some states, pointing a weapon at someone can lead to an arrest. Even if they’re eventually cleared, “you’ve lost thousands of dollars in legal fees, had your reputation ruined, maybe had your picture and name and the newspaper,” he said. The NCVS is confidential, but some gun owners may not trust that their answers won’t be passed on to the authorities, Kleck says. “They’re really unlikely to put themselves in legal peril by reporting that they wielded a deadly weapon, and pointed it at another human being. It’s a lot easier for people to report ‘I was a crime victim,’ period.”  Hemenway says that he’s never heard of a criminal case arising from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Ultimately, he says, most defensive gun uses happen during arguments, when tempers flare and guns are nearby.   Some researchers find fault with both the low- and the high-end estimates... If we’re going by NCVS data, DGUs do not outnumber gun crimes. There are seven times as many gun crimes (484,800) as there are instances of defensive gun use (70,040) each year, according to the survey.  Leading researchers back that up. The Harvard Injury Control Center has found that guns are used far more often to intimidate others than in self-defense... Another reason DGU overestimates are repeated across decades is because most studies on the topic are more than 20 years old. In interviews, both Kleck and Hemenway say they consider the science to be settled. Kleck hasn’t repeated his telephone survey in nearly 30 years, while Hemenway points to the NCVS as a current barometer of defensive gun use. But both men concede that the true number of DGUs will probably never be known.  “What we do know for sure,” Hemenway said, “is that having a gun in your house increases suicides, it increases gun accidents, and it increases homicides, at least of women in the house. And we can’t find any benefit from it.”"

School Shootings: Horrific but Statistically Rare - "Contrary to what you’ve heard from Biden and the media, school massacres like the one in Uvalde are exceptionally rare events. They actually occurred more often in the 1990s than recently—but back then, there wasn’t an army of satellite trucks competing around the clock to chronicle the horror.  “There is not an epidemic of mass shootings,” says James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University who has been tracking these events for decades and helps keep the AP/USA Today/Northeastern Mass Killing database. “What’s increasing and is out of control is the epidemic of fear.”  As Fox notes, the annual odds that an American child will die in a mass shooting at school are nearly 10 million to 1, about the odds of being killed by lightning or of dying in an earthquake. Those are also about the same odds that any American will die in a mass public shooting like the recent one in Buffalo... Surveys show that half of Americans worry about being the victim of a mass shooting, and a third of them avoid going to certain places and events because of this fear. More than 60 percent of parents worry that their child will be killed in a mass shooting at school.  Children do need to be better protected from criminals, and there might be ways to make schools safer, but students don’t need the active-shooter drills now conducted in over 95 percent of the nation’s schools, and which are associated with higher levels of depression, stress and anxiety. Nor do children and parents need to hear the deceptive statistics promoted by the press and the White House’s fearmonger-in-chief. “Why are we willing to live with this carnage?” Biden asked in his speech after the Uvalde killings, portraying them as the continuation of a decade of ceaseless slaughter by citing the “900 incidents of gunfire” on school grounds since 2012. But few students died in these incidents, which typically occurred outside the school building and often involved non-students going there after school hours. When Fox totals the number of students killed by any sort of gunfire at school in the past decade, including the victims in Uvalde, it works out to 10 deaths per year—among more than 50 million students. “Hundreds of children die every year in drowning accidents,” he says. “We need lifeguards at pools more than armed guards at schools.” Journalists are similarly deceptive when they call Uvalde the 27th “school shooting” of this year, or classify the spree in Buffalo as one of the hundreds of “mass shootings” in America annually. But these “mass shootings” typically don’t result in more than one death, if that, and the ones with multiple fatalities typically involve family disputes at home, gang conflict, or other criminal activity like drug dealing or robbery. They’re not random attacks like that in Buffalo, which meets Fox’s criteria for a  “mass public shooting”: one in a public place with at least four fatalities and not related to domestic violence, gang conflict, or other crimes. On average, a half dozen of these occur annually. Mass public shootings at schools are much rarer: a total of 12 in the past 34 years."
Since school shootings were more common in the 90s, media contagion is at best an incomplete explanation
Since the left tells us that since it's more likely to die in a bathtub than by terrorism, it's racist to be worried about terrorism, what does this say about being worried about dying in a mass shooting?

‘In all reality, there were three shooters.’ Oklahomans kill an active shooter, and it’s not as simple as it sounds. - The Washington Post - "police also noted that armed citizens can complicate volatile situations. The first of 57 uniformed police officers arrived just a minute after the initial 911 calls and found a complex scene with multiple armed people and no clear sense of what had happened or who was responsible.  “We don’t want people to be vigilantes,” Bo Mathews, a spokesman for the Oklahoma City Police Department, said in a recent interview. “That’s why we have police officers.”   Both men did what they believed was right, but that meant they had killed a man they did not know. Whittle wondered whether he was going to jail. Nazario went over ways that the confrontation could have ended differently — perhaps with his own death. They both marveled that amid the chaos, the result was as intended: The attacker was stopped before he could hurt anyone else... the first police officer arrived, yelling at them both to get down.  “He doesn’t know how many active shooters there were,” Nazario said. “He could have gotten out of his car and shot me.”  As police gained control of the scene, Jabari Giles, father of one of the wounded girls, rushed to the scene. Seeing Whittle and Nazario handcuffed on the ground and a bloodied body that he took to be a victim next to them, he exploded.  “Which one of you did it?” Giles shouted. “You f—ing shot my kid, didn’t you!”  Giles did not have a gun, but police turned theirs on him and briefly handcuffed him before helping him locate his child...   The FBI examined 160 shootings between 2000 and 2013 and found that most of the violence ended when the assailant stopped shooting, committed suicide or fled. Unarmed citizens successfully restrained shooters in 21 of those incidents, according to the FBI. Two attacks stopped when off-duty officers shot and killed the attackers. Five ended in much the way the attack at Louie’s did — when armed civilians, mostly security guards, exchanged fire with the shooters... interventions by “Good Samaritans” also have ended in tragedy.  In 2014, husband-and-wife attackers killed two Las Vegas police officers before going into a nearby Walmart and firing a shot in the air. Joseph Wilcox, 31, a civilian with a handgun and a concealed-carry permit, pulled his weapon to confront the male shooter, but the man’s wife shot Wilcox in the chest, killing him.  When Prince George’s County police detective Jacai Colson responded to a 2016 attack on a police station in his street clothes, another officer mistook him for a threat and shot him...   “How is the officer going to discern who is the Good Samaritan and who is not?” Serpas said. “They don’t have placards on the front of their shirts that say ‘I’m the good guy’ or ‘I’m the bad guy.’ ”... In August 2013, Oklahoma City police officers responding to the sound of gunshots opened fire on a man shooting at a car before realizing he was the owner of a liquor store who had been robbed...   “It is what it is,” Whittle said. “You’d better be damn sure that what you are doing is right, because you’ll pay the consequences if you are wrong.”...   Nazario, who also grew up with guns, emphasizes the importance of the numerous firearms training courses he has taken. “Not everybody knows what they are doing,” he said... what if Whittle had followed the gunman inside?  “Bryan would have entered the front,” Nazario said. “I would have entered the back.”  There they would have been, two good guys with guns, face to face.  “He could have thought I was the shooter,” Nazario said. Or vice versa. And if Nazario had asked — and Whittle refused — to drop his weapon, Nazario said, “I would have had to take action.”"

Meme - "A toddler has now shot a person every week in America for two years straight. Yes, you read that correctly."
Clearly, the solution is more guns, so people can defend themselves

Under Bolsonaro, gun ownership rose, killings fell, Brazil debates why - The Washington Post - "Much violent crime in Brazil, and homicides in particular, stems from turf battles between the well-armed drug cartels that control favelas, or slums, throughout the country. The victims are predominantly poor young men of color. In 2017, a major war between the country’s two biggest cartels drove gun-related homicides to record levels.  But since then, conflict between First Capital Command and Red Command has calmed considerably, said Roberto Uchôa, a former federal police officer and member of the Brazilian Public Security Forum. First Capital Command now dominates São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous state. In Rio de Janeiro, Red Command now clashes mostly with militias run by police, not rival gangs. As a result, the country’s northeast, ground zero for the groups’ 2017 war for new territory, has quieted.  Bolsonaro has also reaped the benefits of a decade of investment in policing, said Isabel Figueiredo, also a member of the Brazilian Public Security Forum, a nonprofit research group that has advocated for tougher gun laws. Presidents Dilma Rousseff and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva professionalized local police forces and improved data collection and training, leading to a steady drop in homicides in several states... Brazil’s aging population is also a factor, analysts said... a dozen people interviewed at the gun show by The Washington Post said they appreciated that Brazil continues to place far more restrictions on would-be buyers than the United States does. Brazilians must show proof of income and a residence where the firearms must be located. They must undergo a basic psychological evaluation and register with the police and a shooting club. Brazilians still have more restrictions on carrying guns outside the home. Gun owners are allowed to carry a gun only if they are on their way to a shooting club. Webster said gun homicides and accidental deaths in the United States are tied more closely to carrying than to possession.  Another key difference: Guns are roughly three times as expensive in Brazil as in the United States, which makes private ownership primarily an enthusiasm of people with higher incomes. U.S. citizens owned more than 393 million firearms in 2018, or 1.2 per person, according to the Small Arms Survey, a Geneva-based research organization. Brazilians owned 4.4 million in 2021, or 0.02 per person, according to the Security Forum."

Saturday, September 09, 2023

Americans and Gun Culture

Someone asked:

"Americans...
 
Why when there are school shootings and mass shootings daily across America...WHY do people keep banging on about their rights to own guns? Wtf is wrong with you all 🤣🤣🤣

I know the amendments were written up (hundreds of years ago) in a time when the land was pretty much lawless! So why carry on with this utter madness?! 
 
Here in the UK shooting and mass shootings are almost unheard of, in America it's daily!
 
How can you send your kids to school or even feel comfortable walking out of your front door?
Why are schools not fenced off and locked when kids are at school? 
 
My mind is utterly blown by it all.
I have no idea why people want to move to America 🤣"
 
 
Since I wrote up a long reply, I have decided to post it here (with edits to keywords since this is not Facebook):

"So, there're several reasons why pro-gun people have the views that they have. This excludes stupid "arguments" like eurocuck or "your country sucks", some of which you see above

- They view it as a fundamental right that is non-negotiable. If, for the sake of argument, you could get rid of acid attacks in the UK by getting rid of freedom of speech, would you? Most people probably would say no (of course this depends on how important one views the right, the effect one thinks compromising the right will have on the harm and how serious the harm is - see below)

- They think the problem is not that bad. There is some merit to this view. The US is a big country with many people, so the absolute problem is not as bad on a per capita basis. On some measures, the US does not have that big of a mass shooting problem. In any event, gun crime in the US is a big problem, but mass shootings are the wrong way to understand it, as they make up a small portion of deaths. They just make headlines because of their visibility and the victims being perceived as innocent. Think about the cost, hassle and inconvenience that fencing and locking schools involves for all this

- They have fantasies about overthrowing a tyrannical government. Given that many claim that all gun laws are unconstitutional but we don't see the "militas" rising up, this is nonsensical (one pro-gun person claimed Waco and Ruby Ridge were examples, but they weren't about gun control and were failures and anyway in the 30 years since there has been nothing else)

- They don't think it will help. They like to claim that gun laws only affect law-abiding gun owners and that criminals will always get guns. This ignores the fact that the world is not binarily divided into law-abiding citizens and criminals - people can and do crossover. It also pretends that gun laws are useless when there is robust evidence that many are effective (or puts up an impossible standard - if the law is not 100% effective there is no point to it - under which we'd never get anything done, as nothing is ever 100%)

- Related to the above: they think that more guns are the solution, because criminals are rational and won't shoot up places if they think someone will shoot them. This pretends that more guns doesn't increase the chances of a gun incident and assumes that criminals are perfectly rational (even normal humans aren't, so)

- They claim guns are not the root cause of gun crime. They like to repeat the myth that without guns, criminals will just use other weapons, and will claim once again that in the UK, with gun control, criminals just use knives (ironically, in the US, knife crime itself is higher than in the UK, even though guns are easily available there). And ironically, this undermines their claims about needing a gun to protect themselves - if knives are equally effective as guns, they don't need guns to defend themselves

- Underlying everything, basically guns are about identity to many pro-gun people, and the rationalisations they give for why guns are so important and there's no point regulating them are just copes for this"

Friday, August 18, 2023

Links - 18th August 2023 (1 - Guns)

Illinois mall gives Nerf gun to boy who was told 'no' by Santa - "A 4-year-old was left in tears after an Illinois mall Santa said he couldn't have a Nerf gun for Christmas. So the mall, the maker of Nerf and the NRA stepped in...   A video that went viral showed Michael DeCarlo, 4, asking Santa at Harlem Irving Plaza in Norridge, Illinois, for the Nerf gun. When the Santa said no, Michael's mom, Sabella, thought the Santa might not have heard Michael say "Nerf."...   The mall posted an apology and a video on Facebook, said that the Santa had resigned. It sent another Santa to Michael's house with a surprise."

Laws Regarding Driving on Private Property - "Connecticut prohibits vehicle owners from driving without the legally required insurance, and does not limit its applicability to public roadways.   In Washington, officers can enforce traffic violations such as reckless driving, negligent driving, vehicular homicide and hit-and-run traffic collisions on private property. Additionally, officers in some states can enforce speed laws on private roads within a Home Owner Association... In general, unlicensed drivers can operate vehicles on private property, but this is where the definition of private property comes into play. If the property is open to the public such as a mall parking lot or parking garage owned by an individual or company, licensing laws can be enforced...   The same law applies to minors driving on private property. Minors without a state-required driver's license can drive vehicles and dirt bikes on private property with no public access, such as ranches and other rural private property, provided they have the consent of the property owner. However, if an unlicensed driver causes a serious injury or death while driving, the property owners – or parents or guardians if the driver is a minor – could be held liable for injuries and damages. Most U.S. states permit a police officer to enforce drunk driving laws on any property, public or private, because driving drunk is so inherently dangerous. For example, Mississippi’s DUI law says it’s unlawful to drive under the influence within the state. Likewise, Kentucky law states that drunk driving is illegal anywhere in the state. In other states, the law on DUI is more broadly worded, but the courts have interpreted the laws to apply to private property."
Gun nuts love to claim that cars aren't more regulated than guns by saying that you don't need a licence to drive a vehicle on private property. Which is not always true. And the state still has power over the use of cars on private property

Pat Benatar has stopped singing 'Hit Me With Your Best Shot' - "While the song's meaning is about strength and resiliency, Benatar said "you have to draw the line" and be aware of lyrics."
If she wants to play this game, how many of her old songs can she no longer sing?

Man fires gun at teens who said they mistakenly pulled in his driveway, authorities say - "Authorities on Tuesday said Virginia man was arrested after he fired a gun into a car occupied by three teenagers who said they wound up in his driveway by mistake.  Spotsylvania County deputies said they were called to a home for a dispute on June 18 around 9:45 p.m. EDT. They were met at the address by Brent Alford, 49, who told authorities he noticed a vehicle was parked in his driveway.  Armed with a handgun, Alford went to investigate, deputies said. Inside the vehicle were three teenage siblings, aged 17, 16, and 15, who said they were lost and had driven down Alford's driveway by accident... The bullet traveled through the taillight and hit items in the trunk before landing in the center of the back passenger area under the seat cushion"
All criminals will always have guns. Therefore any form of gun control will not help, because it will only cripple law-abiding citizens. Because we know beforehand who is a criminal and who is not

City's attempt to cut Texas man's grass leads to a standoff, a fire and his death, police say - "An attempt by Austin, Texas, officials to serve a search warrant and provide lawn care resulted in shots fired, an hourslong standoff, a house fire and a death... SWAT, mental health officers and a crisis negotiator arrived on scene, but could not get the man out of the home, leading to the lockdown of a nearby elementary school and the closure of several streets... Their main goal Wednesday was to get the man in compliance with the local homeowners association.  “They attempted to cut the lawn for him, and this is the reaction they got”"
Clearly gun laws only affect law abiding citizens, and criminals will just ignore them, so they are useless. Everyone falls into one of these two categories and never transitions between them
I saw some gun nuts defending this because they hate the government. Too bad it was the HOA

Meme - "SWITZERLAND. 1 IN 2 CITIZENS HAS GUNS, LOWEST CRIME RATE IN THE WORLD Drew Shekler: "l am a Swiss citizen living in Switzerland. What this fails to mention is the fact that ammunition can not be kept at home. It must stay at the shooting range or milliary barracks. All men here must do "military time* it's more like boy scouts here until age 28. Also, concealed pistol permits are nearly impossible to come by. What the US should be looking to mimic from the Swiss is the fact that every single job here guarentees 4 weeks min paid vacation, 16 weeks paid maternity leave for new moms, and a secure safety net for people that find themselves unemployed. But hey the rifles are cool too :)"

12-year-old boy pulls gun on classmate in the US, demands Chicken McNugget: Police - "A 12-year-old New York City boy is accused of pulling a gun on a classmate and demanding that she give him her chicken nugget."
Too bad the other classmate didn't have a gun too, which would've solved the problem

Why school shootings don’t happen in Israel (& the Polish government’s outrageous lies) - "There is therefore much anger in Israel, among both right and left, that in the US, the National Rifle Association (NRA) and its supporters wrongly cite Israel as a country which allows easy access to guns...   The gun death rate in Israel is low by international standards: about two homicides per 100,000 people in Israel.  Most of those are the result of clan and gang warfare among some of Israel’s Arab minority, where there is a proliferation of illegal weapons, mostly smuggled in from the Palestinian Authority... Contrary to what many in the United States believe, owning a firearm in Israel is neither common nor easy. Applying for a license is a grueling process, often taking months of security checks and training courses. Keeping that license requires an investment of time, effort, and money... I drove into the nearest town to get the necessary forms signed by my family doctor, who certified that I’m not taking any medication that might impair my alertness, that I have no history of psychological disorders, and that I’m more or less in my right mind—at least most of the time.  And then it was off to the shooting range. Together with 15 others, I stood in line for half an hour to have my designated self-defense weapon examined, tested for any malfunctions that would endanger myself or passersby. The serial number was matched with the paperwork to make sure the weapon was legally mine and had not been put on any watch lists. Another 40-minute wait (part of it spent in the Sukkah outside the range chatting with an elderly veteran of four of Israel’s wars) and we were ushered into the range for our training session... If your weapon is stolen from your house and you cannot prove that a safe was broken open to get at the weapon, then you are a criminal and may do jail time.   And if we ever have to use a weapon in self-defense? You had better be certain that you had no other recourse, that you did what you could to warn the attacker, and that had you not taken action, at least one innocent life could have been lost. And you may still do jail time...   There is something seriously wrong about a system where a disturbed young man can acquire deadly weapons as easily as buying a new laptop. Where children can treat firearms as casually as toys...  the United States? A country bounded by friendly regimes and by neutral water. Apparently a nation lacking natural enemies may simply become its own enemy."
Clearly, if Israel had more guns and it were easier to get them, there would be even fewer gun deaths and their low murder rate would be even lower

Man who shot Colorado gunman was killed by officer - The Globe and Mail - "Johnny Hurley was hailed by police as a hero for shooting and killing a gunman they say had killed one officer and expressed hatred for police in a Denver suburb. But when another officer rushed in to respond and saw Hurley holding the suspect’s AR-15, he shot Hurley, killing him"
Presumably the gun nut logic will be that we don't need the police, since they only screw up by shooting "good guys with guns". Apparently civilians never make mistakes - only the government

Why does the US have such a high rate of gun murders? - "  Why does the US have such a high rate of gun murders, by far the highest in the developed world? Is it because of guns, or is there something else going on? Maybe America is just more prone to crime, say, because of income inequality or cultural differences?  A landmark 1997 study actually tried to answer this question. Its findings — which scholars say still hold up — are that America doesn't really have a significantly higher rate of crime compared to similar countries. But that crime is much likelier to be lethal: American criminals just kill more people than do their counterparts in other developed countries. And guns appear to be a big part of what makes this difference. The seminal work here is a 1999 book by Berkeley's Franklin Zimring and Gordon Hawkins, called Crime Is Not the Problem. Zimring and Hawkins set out to examine what was, at the time, the conventional wisdom: that America had a uniquely terrible crime problem, one without any parallel in other developed democracies.  They found, pretty definitively, that the conventional wisdom was wrong. "Rates of common property crimes in the United States are comparable to those reported in many other Western industrial nations, but rates of lethal violence in the United States are much higher," they write. "Violence is not a crime problem."  Zimring and Hawkins determined this by looking at 20 developed countries' overall crime rate and rates of violent death. They found virtually no connection between the two, indicating that a country's level of violent death wasn't determined by its overall crime levels... It's not because, as you might think, American violent criminals are just more likely to kill people... "A far greater proportion of Los Angeles homicides grow out of arguments and other social encounters between acquaintances [than robbery or rape]," they find.  This is where guns enter the story. The mere presence of firearms, according to Zimring and Hawkins, makes a merely tense situation more likely to turn deadly. When a gang member argues with another gang member, or a robber sticks up a liquor store, there's always a risk that the situation can escalate to some kind of violence. But when people have a handheld tool that is specially engineered for killing efficiently, escalation to murder becomes much, much more likely.  And indeed, that's what Zimring and Hawkins's data found.  "A series of specific comparisons of the death rates from property crime and assault in New York City and London show how enormous differences in death risk can be explained even while general patterns are similar," they explain. "A preference for crimes of personal force and the willingness and ability to use guns in robbery make similar levels of property crime fifty-four times as deadly in New York City as in London." Guns, not criminality per se, are the problem... "Robbery and assault rates ... reveal several Western nations that rival the United States," a 2011 review found. "While the level of lethal violence in the United States is probably the highest in the Western world, it is hard to make the case for US exceptionalism when it comes to non-lethal violence."... "Some of the behaviors that we think of as fundamentally linked with violence may stay quite steady as the violence rate goes down, as you get a better handle on the gun issue," he explained.  New York's recent tightening enforcement of gun laws serves as a good example. According to Pollack, New York didn't effectively reduce its heroin use rate or solve underlying problems such as poverty — the things that gun rights advocates often claim actually contribute to gun violence. But New York did tighten gun restrictions, which coincided with less violence."
So much for the cope that without guns, criminals will just use whatever other weapons are available (which anyway begs the question of why one needs a gun to defend one's self, since other weapons are just as effective)

Easiness of Legal Access to Concealed Firearm Permits and Homicide Rates in the United States - "Shall-issue laws are associated with significantly higher rates of total, firearm-related, and handgun-related homicide."
Weird. We are told that concealed carry is very effective to deter crime because criminals don't know who is armed

Rare in US for an active shooter to be stopped by bystander - "From 2000 to 2021, fewer than 3% of 433 active attacks in the U.S. ended with a civilian firing back, according to the Advanced Law Enforcement Rapid Response Training Center at Texas State University... It was far more common for police or bystanders to subdue the attacker or for police to kill the person, according to the center’s national data... “There’s been this statement: ‘The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.’ That’s factually inaccurate because of the word ‘only,’” said Adam Lankford, a criminal justice expert at the University of Alabama who has written books and research papers about mass shootings.  Nonetheless, gun-rights advocates, including the National Rifle Association, used that phrase on social media to draw attention to what happened in Indiana... Lankford believes it would be a mistake to think armed civilians can be relied upon to regularly stop mass shootings.  “While it’s certainly a good thing in this mall shooting that someone was able to stop it before it went any further, let’s not think we can substitute that outcome in all past and future incidents,” Lankford said. “If everyone’s carrying a firearm, the risk that something bad happens just gets much larger.”"
Doesn't impede gun nut fantasies. One called this a biased source, even though ALERRT is a partnership between Texas State University and the police, and the FBI named it the National Standard in Active Shooter Response Training

School Shooters: The Myth of the Stable Home - "Out of this sample of 56 school shooters, only 10 (18%) grew up in a stable home with both biological parents. In other words, 82% of the sample either grew up in dysfunctional families or without their parents together (for at least part of their lives).  Though the focus here is on shooters in the United States, following this listing are shooters from other countries who came from broken homes or unstable families"
Someone got very upset when I posted this, and then posted something "refuting" it without realising that it was an "analysis" of the very same thing I quoted, and claimed that I had gotten wrecked and was embarrassing myself. If you want to do a further breakdown, of the 56 US school shooters that Langman cites, 29 lived in single parent/broken households for at least part of their time as children and 5 lived without both biological parents for an extended period of time.
According to US census data, over two thirds of families with their own children under 18 are married couples (as opposed to single parent households). So there is a clear over-representation of children from single parent households among school shooters.
Given that we know that single parenthood is a risk factor in crime, we should not be surprised that it's a risk factor in this form of mass shooting

The Hidden Consequences of School Shootings - Freakonomics - "LEVINE: One of the things that we noticed when we started thinking about the Sandy Hook school shooting, is the extent to which gun sales skyrocketed in the months afterwards. So, Sandy Hook was in December of 2012. There was an enormous spike in gun sales from the period of December, right after the school shooting, through early April of 2013. And we can identify the timing of it almost perfectly to the political discussions that were taking place at that time. Those discussions ended up being unsuccessful. They did not lead to any new legislation. When they ended, gun sales returned to normal. What we were interested in what is the impact of having 3 million additional guns, purchased in a relatively short period of time. And it turns out that there is a very large spike in accidental gun deaths that lines up perfectly with the surge in gun sales, which unfortunately led to the deaths of essentially the same number of children through these subsequent deaths as occurred in the Sandy Hook shooting itself. Just because there are more guns out there, someone accidentally picked it up and a bad thing happened...
I think in many instances, a school shooting occurs and then there’s sort of a knee jerk response where we feel like we have to do something. And that includes reconstructing school entryways to make sure that it’s difficult, if not impossible, to enter the school if your entry hasn’t been approved. Active shooter drills. All these things are very expensive. All of these things have not such strong proven track records of being effective. And it’s possible that one of the things that they do do is take away money from things that we can be doing to, for instance, provide greater psychological assistance to the kids who were exposed, where we know there was direct harm done to those children. I think of Uvalde was a perfect example of the training, the school construction. All of the things that we think we’re doing, trying to help our children didn’t seem like they were all that effective in that particular instance."
Clearly there is no point in having gun control because criminals will always be able to get guns, so gun control will only hurt law-abiding citizens

Meme - the right: "it's not a guns problem, it's a mental health crisis!" everyone: "so you're saying we should provide universal access to things like mental health services?"
the right: "Woah there"
Copes include saying that they should be locked away, that the government can't run it, that this is ok as long as the government provides guns, that everyone in the US has access, that covid lockdowns have damaged mental health more than mental health programs can help, that the healthcare field promotes mental illness, that government policies caused the mental health crisis and to tell the person posting this to kill himself

Man Dies After Shooting Himself in the Groin While Attempting U-Turn—Police - "A Charleston man fatally shot himself in the groin while attempting a U-turn in his car, according to police in South Carolina.  Ahmad Gardner, 35, was driving east on Rivers Avenue, near Mall Drive in Charleston, on Tuesday morning when the incident occurred."

School Shootings: Horrific but Statistically Rare | City Journal - " Politicians and journalists cannot resist exploiting the deaths of schoolchildren, but the ghoulish wall-to-wall coverage serves no purpose except to terrify adults and kids. Contrary to what you’ve heard from Biden and the media, school massacres like the one in Uvalde are exceptionally rare events. They actually occurred more often in the 1990s than recently—but back then, there wasn’t an army of satellite trucks competing around the clock to chronicle the horror. “There is not an epidemic of mass shootings,” says James Alan Fox, a criminologist at Northeastern University who has been tracking these events for decades and helps keep the AP/USA Today/Northeastern Mass Killing database. “What’s increasing and is out of control is the epidemic of fear.”  As Fox notes, the annual odds that an American child will die in a mass shooting at school are nearly 10 million to 1, about the odds of being killed by lightning or of dying in an earthquake. Those are also about the same odds that any American will die in a mass public shooting like the recent one in Buffalo. Such numbers, of course, are no consolation to the grieving parents and families in Uvalde and Buffalo, but neither is the frenzy to manipulate these tragedies for ratings and political gain... Surveys show that half of Americans worry about being the victim of a mass shooting, and a third of them avoid going to certain places and events because of this fear. More than 60 percent of parents worry that their child will be killed in a mass shooting at school.  Children do need to be better protected from criminals, and there might be ways to make schools safer, but students don’t need the active-shooter drills now conducted in over 95 percent of the nation’s schools, and which are associated with higher levels of depression, stress and anxiety. Nor do children and parents need to hear the deceptive statistics promoted by the press and the White House’s fearmonger-in-chief.  “Why are we willing to live with this carnage?” Biden asked in his speech after the Uvalde killings, portraying them as the continuation of a decade of ceaseless slaughter by citing the “900 incidents of gunfire” on school grounds since 2012. But few students died in these incidents, which typically occurred outside the school building and often involved non-students going there after school hours. When Fox totals the number of students killed by any sort of gunfire at school in the past decade, including the victims in Uvalde, it works out to 10 deaths per year—among more than 50 million students. “Hundreds of children die every year in drowning accidents,” he says. “We need lifeguards at pools more than armed guards at schools.”  Journalists are similarly deceptive when they call Uvalde the 27th “school shooting” of this year, or classify the spree in Buffalo as one of the hundreds of “mass shootings” in America annually. But these “mass shootings” typically don’t result in more than one death, if that, and the ones with multiple fatalities typically involve family disputes at home, gang conflict, or other criminal activity like drug dealing or robbery. They’re not random acts of terror like that in Buffalo, which meets Fox’s criteria for a  “mass public shooting”: one in a public place with at least four fatalities that are not related to gang conflict or other crimes. On average, a half dozen of these occur annually. Mass public shootings at schools are much rarer: a total of 12 in the past 34 years."
Liberals tell us that you're more likely to die from a lightning strike than a terrorist attack in the US, so if you worry about the latter but not the former you're racist. Yet they're obsessed with mass and especially school shootings

Sean Baad's answer to Have any US cops trained with British Police or vice versa? If so, what did you think of the other nations take on policing? - Quora - "My brother did some training in the US… California I believe but I could be wrong. His overwhelming takeaway from it all was that the police in the US are almost universally terrified at all times. The very real threat of ANYONE they stop possessing a gun makes life very different... it adversely affects the quality of policing (and the public’s perception of policing) because, by necessity, the police in the US are MUCH more heavy-handed and aggressive. They need to create the impression that, if you have a firearm, it would be a very bad idea to reach for it. While there is a lot of focus on de-escalating situations in the UK, that isn’t really applicable so much in the US."
Of course, it's easier to just hate on the police in the US. But clearly, the solution is even more guns

Officer shooting leads to better training - "In 1998, a deputy sheriff in Georgia made a traffic stop. The dashcam video has been used to train officers all over the country in the cost of hesitation."
Police officer pulls a speeder over, sees him screw around, lets him get up and go back into his vehicle to get a gun and gets shot and killed, because he is reluctant to shoot the idiot. Those who keep condemning the police ignore the fact that the abundance of guns makes policing in the US more difficult than in other developed countries

Firearm Laws and Firearm Homicides: A Systematic Review - "In the aggregate, stronger gun policies were associated with decreased rates of firearm homicide, even after adjusting for demographic and sociologic factors. Laws that strengthen background checks and permit-to-purchase seemed to decrease firearm homicide rates. Specific laws directed at firearm trafficking, improving child safety, or the banning of military-style assault weapons were not associated with changes in firearm homicide rates. The evidence for laws restricting guns in public places and leniency in gun carrying was mixed."
Gun nuts will still keep chanting Washington DC and Chicago

What Do We Know About the Association Between Firearm Legislation and Firearm-Related Injuries? - "Firearms account for a substantial proportion of external causes of death, injury, and disability across the world. Legislation to regulate firearms has often been passed with the intent of reducing problems related to their use. However, lack of clarity around which interventions are effective remains a major challenge for policy development. Aiming to meet this challenge, we systematically reviewed studies exploring the associations between firearm-related laws and firearm homicides, suicides, and unintentional injuries/deaths. We restricted our search to studies published from 1950 to 2014. Evidence from 130 studies in 10 countries suggests that in certain nations the simultaneous implementation of laws targeting multiple firearms restrictions is associated with reductions in firearm deaths. Laws restricting the purchase of (e.g., background checks) and access to (e.g., safer storage) firearms are also associated with lower rates of intimate partner homicides and firearm unintentional deaths in children, respectively. Limitations of studies include challenges inherent to their ecological design, their execution, and the lack of robustness of findings to model specifications. High quality research on the association between the implementation or repeal of firearm legislation (rather than the evaluation of existing laws) and firearm injuries would lead to a better understanding of what interventions are likely to work given local contexts. This information is key to move this field forward and for the development of effective policies that may counteract the burden that firearm injuries pose on populations."

The effect of legislation on firearm-related deaths in Canada: a systematic review - "Evidence supporting the effectiveness of Canadian firearms legislation in the reduction of homicide and accidental death rates is inconclusive; a decrease in firearm-related suicide rates was observed by most studies, but evidence of method substitution was also identified. Re-evaluation of existing laws may be beneficial to build an improved and effective evidence-based national framework for prevention of gun violence."
When you already have strict gun laws, going even more strict doesn't really help for non-suicides

Federal gun bill shows Liberals 'out of touch' with Nunavut, says MP - "Nunavummiut need to hunt to feed their families and to protect themselves from dangerous predators such as polar bears"
Ottawa withdraws controversial amendments to firearms law - "The Liberal government has withdrawn a series of controversial amendments to pending firearms legislation, Bill C-21, that some firearms owners say would have unfairly targeted hunters and farmers... C-21, as originally drafted, was designed to ban handguns. The amendments expanded its scope.  Because the amendments strayed so dramatically from how the bill was initially written, opposition parties questioned whether the changes were even admissible under parliamentary rules... What's needed in this minority Parliament, Mendicino said, is support from either the NDP or Bloc — parties that withheld support in the face of backlash from rural dwellers and some Indigenous peoples... Critics said a ban on popular hunting rifles would do little to make Canadians safer when many crime guns are handguns illegally smuggled over the U.S. border."

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