L'origine de Bert

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Monday, May 05, 2008

All good things come to an end as Fred reboots

"I was asked by editorial director Brian Livingston a question that was as profound as it was simple: "What have you learned from the computing industry over the last three decades?"

Here are my short-form answers:

Don't sweat the small stuff

For example, we all know someone who obsesses over CPU clock speeds, GPU texture fill rates, broadband RWIN size, or some other performance variable as if it held the key to computing happiness. The fact is, most computer users don't notice performance differences until they're in the range of 15% to 20% below "normal."

People who use their PCs a lot and are well-accustomed to how their systems work are a bit more sensitive to performance, but even they don't normally notice differences until the slowdown is greater than 10%. Computer pros and some very well-attuned individuals may notice speed drops of around 10%, but almost everyone needs a stopwatch to discern performance changes in the single-digit-percentage range. So why obsess over small differences that will most likely go unnoticed anyway?

Note that this doesn't apply just to CPUs and GPUs. It also affects operating systems, hardware name brands, and even non-tech issues in life. Most small differences just don't matter and aren't worth getting worked up about.

The grass isn't really greener in the next yard

All software has bugs and vulnerabilities. All hardware contains design flaws and can fail. Anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is nuts. For example, you'll hear people claim that there's a far smaller incidence of malicious hacking in the Linux and Apple worlds, and it's true — up to a point. But there are far, far fewer target systems in those worlds. With most of the planet's crackers trying to subvert Windows, is it really a huge surprise that more flaws are found in Windows than in other OSes?

This isn't to say that Windows has been a paragon of security; heck no. But to flip it the other way and say "Linux doesn't have many bugs" or "Macs don't get hacked" is just plain silly. Nothing is perfect, and you'll be happier with your PC — and with your life — if you simply deal with the flaws you encounter and move on. Perfection doesn't exist.

There's no such thing as a magic bullet

This is a close relative of the greener-grass myth. By the time you can buy a PC that's twice as fast as the PC you have today, the software you'll want to run will need twice today's power. In fact, there's no single thing — no new operating system, CPU, graphics card, etc. — you can change that will suddenly make all of your computing problems go away. Sad to say, your PC will always run slower than you want it to.

Hang on to your sense of wonder

There's something in human nature that allows us to become accustomed to even the most remarkable things. For example, my current PC clocks almost 2,000 times faster than my very first PC, and it has over 4,000 times as much RAM; yet in inflation-adjusted dollars it cost literally about one-tenth of that first system!

Is there anything else in our lives that even comes close to that kind of improvement? If you can manage not to get jaded about the many wonders in the world of computing or in our wider daily lives, you'll enjoy yourself that much more.

Remember your humanity

Alas, the world of high tech isn't immune to some of humankind's baser impulses. For example, consider Apple's elitist marketing. A PC is a tool, not a lifestyle, but Apple embraces the dark side and tries to sell its PCs by appealing to vanity and narcissism, implying that owning an Apple makes you smarter, cooler, and just plain better than those sorry-assed PC people.

Yes, it's a small thing, but the world has enough divisive issues in it without Apple marketers trying to invent silly new ones. It's just a computer, Apple! How about thinking really "different" and coming up with ads that don't promote snobbery and elitism?

Apple execs aren't the only tech snobs

This is a corollary to the above item. Apple's leaders just happen to be the worst offenders in the computer industry, and that's why I'm singling them out here. But I personally boycott any products whose main sales pitch is based on making one group of people think that they're inherently better than others. If you're as bothered by such ugly marketing ploys as I am, perhaps you'll consider a similar personal boycott."
"What if nothing exists and we're all in somebody's dream? Or what's worse, what if only that fat guy in the third row exists?" - Woody Allen

***

"I don't know what I should say about ICQ, but in my opinion there are a lot of mistakes. This stupid invisible mode which not work, if another user use not the ICQ client too, icq published unfinished beta products, the ICQ forums on the ICQ.com site are a bad joke, and NO I want not see pictures from girls with very big t... .Spam problems are stilled not solved."

***

"Observe the ladies of the court, see how they achieve what they want from their men. Not by stomping their little feet but by allowing the men to believe that they indeed are in charge. That is the art of being a woman." - The Other Boleyn Girl

Girls like to giggle suddenly for no reason. This seems to be a cross-cultural phenomenon.

KFC Singapore used to suck, but the last time I tried it it was much better, even comparable to the Malaysian one.

Some people like their martinis shaken, not stirred. I know someone who likes her honey milk [bubble] tea unshaken and left to sit the right side up, so the pearls soak up the flavour).

I bought a Delifrance feuliette and even though they heated it up for me, it was cool inside. Gah. Their quality has really gone down since they started doctoring their menu (with Chicken Curry Feuliettes, Tofu Bolognaise and Curry Chicken/Lamb Baked Rice at least they're not claiming to be "the Authentic French Cafe Bakery" anymore, at least not in Singapore).

I was talking about California Pizza Kitchen and someone said it wasn't very good. I was shocked, till I found out he thought I meant Canadian Pizza. Gah. ("I make the best Canadian pizza ever! It’s called the “Baby Seal Supreme with extra cheese and whale blubber.”")

I had a strand of hair which, from the end, went from black to white to black to white again. Not very stable.

Malays can't drive into some parts of Signal camps. Hurray for racial harmony.


I know one Catholic who had premarital sex but didn't use protection. My comment was that if you're having premarital sex, using protection is the least of your sins.

The next time Christians say they'll pray for me, I'll promise to sacrifice a heifer to the Gods for them. If they're being stupid, I'll sacrifice it to Athena, so maybe they'll become smarter.

A Muslim friend tells me that MUIS doesn't require Malays setting foodstalls don't need to get Halal certificates.

If you change your religion to marry someone, it's clear neither your old nor your new religion mean very much to you.


A Muslim friend was talking about eating hunted rabbit. He said it was sour because of the lactic acid from the chase. Someone asked if it was halal (just before I did) and he said you need to not kill it outright so you can kill it the halal way later. This seems more cruel than killing it outright, as in normal hunting.

He also said that Dragonfruit was haram because it belonged to the Cactus family (I asked why pigs being haram doesn't make humans haram, and he said animals have different rules). He checked Aloe Vera, but it was a Lotus so it was okay.

When I twittered my befuddlement, 2 Muslims twittered back denying that Dragonfruit is haram, and I couldn't find anything on it or cacti being haram, so I assumed that he was bullshitting as usual and dropped a drop on him, but he seemed genuinely offended.

One of the aforementioned Twitter contacts:

"I just realize where your friend may have been confused.The liquid from the cactus, is a good source of manufacturing liquor.

The cactus itself can be consumed, but when used for haram purposes, then it becomes haram.

The same logic can be applied to everything that can go through the process of fermentation. I suppose your friend prefers to stay on the safe side. That would mean that he has to avoid all fruits that can be processed as liquor. Based on current methodologies, that's about every single fruit in the planet."
Teen Virginity Pledges: Can They Work?

"Half of teens who take virginity pledges deny it a year later. But many sexually active teens become born-again virgins after taking the pledge, a new study shows...

Becoming a born-again Christian -- or taking a virginity pledge -- was linked to teens retracting self-reported sex... "It is probably more about what they had for breakfast on that day. Teens are very labile on what they do or say at any one time...

If you are from a fundamentalist denomination, there is less likelihood your child will engage in premarital sex. That may be because the mores of this religion are so strong. But after they leave the protective nest of their observant household, they may go wild with experimentation. Not just with sex but with alcohol, drugs, whatever."...

"Demonizing sexual activity makes it hard for teens to be honest," Bennett says. "So the teen goes into the doctor with a genital rash but says, 'No, I have never had sex.' There is where the real health problem comes in. It creates a barrier to open communication to have that expectation of abstinence."

Bennett also notes that religious teens who say they are virgins -- even though they previously said they'd had sex -- aren't hypocrites.

"When kids come into religion, they are actually told that if they take the virginity pledge they are born-again virgins. God wipes their sex away," Bennett says. "Sexually experienced teens who say, 'I have never had sex,' aren't lying -- they go into denial."...

"Would I bet my money that a teen of 16 is really going to be affected by an abstinence message? No way. She is probably already having sex."...

Bennett finds that both abstinence-only education and abstinence-plus-sex education work. However, when kids do have sex, those who got the abstinence-plus education are better off.

"Both types of program seem to work, but in teens already having sex or those who start sex, those exposed to abstinence-plus were much more likely to use contraceptioncontraception," she says. "Both abstinence-only and abstinence-plus programs seem to decrease sexual activity, but in teens that do end up having sex, they are worse off without safe-sex information."

Parents, Smith and Bennett each note, are very likely to think that teens interpret sexual education as permission to have sex. This isn't the case, Bennett says.

"In 27 studies I reviewed, kids in abstinence-plus programs are not more likely to initiate sex," she says. "The idea kids will take safe-sex information and have wild, rampant sex -- that is not supported in the scientific literature at all.""
"You know everybody is ignorant, only on different subjects." - Will Rogers

***

China Says Democracy Hurts Kenya - "The election-related violence that has killed hundreds in Kenya is proof that Western-style democracy is a bad fit for Africa, said China... "Western-style democratic theory simply isn't suited to African conditions, but rather carries with it the root of disaster," said the paper, the official mouthpiece of China's ruling Communist Party."
Meanwhile, Chinese-style authoritarianism is not responsible for the violence in Burma or Tibet - it's the evil machinations of the Aung San Suu Kyi and the Dalai Lama!

When does kinky porn become illegal? - "A bill outlawing the possession of "extreme pornography" is set to become law next week. But many fear it has been rushed through and will criminalise innocent people with a harmless taste for unconventional sex... Under the new rules, criminal responsibility shifts from the producer - who is responsible under the OPA - to the consumer. But campaigners say the new law risks criminalising thousands of people who use violent pornographic images as part of consensual sexual relationships... "Do you ban alcohol just because some people are alcoholics?"... "How many tens or hundreds or thousands of people are going to be dragged into a police station, have their homes turned upside down, their computers stolen and their neighbours suspecting them of all sorts?""
Comments below: 'Speaking as a psychologist who has taught for nearly 10 years the alleged links between violent media and aggression, I think we need to take a step back here. Despite popular assumptions that watching violent images 'causes' aggression, the evidence (around 1000 published studies) that it does is contradictory and far from conclusive. It is one thing to say that a deeply disturbed and dangerous person may seek out violent pornography to fulfil their deviant fantasies: however it is an entirely different matter to say that normal, well adjusted people will be inspired to commit violent crimes if they watch such images.'
'If owning material that contains "An act which threatens or appears to threaten a person's life" becomes illegal, then almost every film I own will be illegal. Even if the violence must be in a sex scene I can think of several mainstream films this would include. Basic instinct and Goldeneye to name two.'


'Aqoul: Threesomes: Halal or Haram? - "The fatwa consists of three sections:
1. That no woman should see another woman’s awrah (her private parts, specified incidentally as the area between her navel and knees, the same applies to men) and it is assumed that if there were a threesome both women would naturally see each other’s forbidden areas.
2. That in the hadith it was forbidden to discuss affairs of the marital bed in public
3. That it was an absurd and frankly distasteful idea in the first place
The simplest solution that comes to mind is that the whole sordid affair can be conducted in the dark, which I am sure is how the majority of couples choose to conduct their physical relationships... So, if the threesome is in the dark where the women cannot see each other’s awrah and there is no discussion afterwards, then surely the husband is only fulfilling his duty to treat both wives equally and thus justify his decision for taking another wife in the first place. And Allah Almighty knows Best."

Disney Underwear Ads - Tarzan, Prince Philip, Milo etc in briefs.

Racial Discrimination in Japan - "All peoples are, to one extent or another, racist, nationalistic, sexist, ageist, economic or intellectual snobs, etcetera, etcetera. What changes as we go from country to country is the degree, the frequency, the intensity, the main targets of, and the way the prejudice is expressed... most Japanese landlords will not rent to a foreigner... the Japanese landlords do not normally hang out a “For Rent” sign at an apartment building. They go to a “fudosan”- a real estate agency to help them find tenants. However, try and check out some signs near your local “fudosan”- you can usually see those that say: “No Animals, No Prostitutes, No Foreigners.” Lovely, isn’t it?... Second, there are quite a few bars, hotels, and nightclubs that are for “Japanese Only”. Just like those “White Only” places in the US or South Africa in the times of old; except that in the latter case, worldwide outrage had removed those signs, while the Japanese signs are still hanging just like before, and few people care. You see, the Japanese are not white, so it is OK for them to be racist. Plus most UN human rights activists do not read Japanese and do not hang out near such real estate agencies... There are other annoyances that get under your skin- taxis pass by and do not stop for you. The same thing that Blacks people complain about in the US. And in Japan you do not have to be black for that to happen. Also, you often see people giving out promotional items in front of department stores, and you as a foreigner often will not be given one. They will simply skip you and greet another Japanese behind you."

Show your support for net neutrality, lose your cherry - "The notoriously unorthodox campaigner from Belgium, Tania Devereaux, is offering to make love to every virgin who defends the Internet... 'An unusual amount of today's Internet users are virgin. That's a problem I intend to solve. In history, man has always waged war for freedom. Now it's time to obtain our freedom with love.'... Tania herself isn't unfamiliar with using sex to make a statement. Last year, Belgian politicians made claims of creating 400,000 jobs. Tania, not believing a word, then offered 40,000 blowjobs and ran for a seat in the Belgian senate."

Wrongmodo: Putting Video Cameras in the WRONG Places (VERY NSFW) - "Yes, a camera. I just don't understand how they could place the video camera—with a big honking coaxial cable and a fiber-optics light source no less, no wireless here—inside there without causing a mess and not moving. That's just wrong, no matter how interesting it could be from a scientific point of view. And Mr. Zoltan, please don't get any more weird ideas."
'Disgusting' Chris sent me this

Legal firm bans fishnet stockings because they distract male colleagues - "One solicitor, calling herself City Woman, fumed: "What a total load of tosh. My male partners openly coo when I'm wearing Jimmy Choos, short skirts and nicely cut tops as it all reinforces the image they wish to project about themselves, the people they work with and the quality of bird they've attracted to the partnership... "At my firm, our investment banking clients were always happy to see us girls at negotiation meetings in very short skirts. Our male colleagues were very happy about it too. Do I detect a hint of jealousy among the frumps that can't get away with it?" Feelings were really running high by the time an investment banker put in his two pennyworth. "Fishnet stockings? Are you out of your mind? Which law firm do you work for? Soho Working Girls LLP?" he wrote... "Some of our trainees and newly qualifieds look like lap-dancers. Maybe they're just trying to snare a husband and don't see a longterm future for themselves in the law but I know I wouldn't take them to a client meeting looking like that."... One woman lawyer confided: "I've always found a brief flash of fishnets under a skirt suit a very effective method of tribunal advocacy.""

Farmers strike a pose to promote organic milk - "Tristan Dale, Love-OM farmer demonstrator of the move 'surveying the fields' explains: "Being an organic dairy farmer is hard work. I want to make sure I am as relaxed and focused as possible. My mood definitely transfers to my cows and as organic farmers we believe happier cows produce better milk. "Organic farming, like Tai Chi, is all about maintaining a balance. In organic farming we do our best to maintain a balance with nature and Tai Chi has helped me maintain the inner balance which is reflected my farm." Drawing inspiration from China, where farmers have practiced Tai Chi since the seventeenth century, the FOMG enlisted the services of a Tai Chi Master or 'Sifu' to help teach members the special moves, renowned for bestowing a mood of wellbeing."

Hard lesson for man who wanted a quick romp - "A man looking for a quick fix was mighty upset when his Pretty Woman turned out to be a very pretty... male... Eager to taste her delights, he ripped off all his clothes. He asked her to do the same. She refused, and then demanded to be paid before proceeding any further. An argument ensued and the man grabbed the prostitute. "Let's just say that when he touched her he realised he wasn't touching a woman," said Inspector Moses Maphakela... Soon afterwards the man realised his cellphone was gone. He went to the police station to lay a charge of theft. While he was there, the prostitute walked in to lay a charge of assault against him."

Man’s Best Friend - Weird News Story Archive - "When an elderly couple’s dog fell into a ventilation shaft, someone was there to help them. The Budapest, Hungary, couple watched as a man identified only as Jozsef P. came to their aid by lowering himself down the 20-meter shaft on a rope. The man then tied the rope to the dog so they could pull the animal to safety. The relieved couple hurried off with the dog but, Jozsef says, they didn’t bother to throw the rope back down to him. A passerby heard his dwindling calls for help — four days later. He is hospitalized in serious condition suffering from malnutrition and dehydration."

Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions - "Explaining cross-country differences in growth rates requires not only an understanding of the link between growth and public policies, but also an understanding of why countries choose different public policies. This paper shows that ethnic diversity helps explain cross-country differences in public policies and other economic indicators. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is associated with low schooling, political instability, underdeveloped financial systems, distorted foreign exchange markets, high government deficits, and insufficient infrastructure. Africa's high ethnic fragmentation explains a significant part of most of these characteristics."

Proposal to protect 'fly alone' women: Have letter will travel - "In a move to stop Malaysian women being duped into carrying drugs for international syndicates, the Foreign Ministry has proposed that all women travelling out of the country alone be required to have a letter from parents or employers. Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Dr Rais Yatim said the letter would be a declaration which stated clearly the reason the woman was travelling."
Malaysia Boleh!

The elephant in the classroom - "Schooling in a homogeneous group of students appears to have a positive effect on high-ability students' achievements, and even stronger effects on the achievements of high-ability minority youth. Grouping does not seem to affect negatively the achievements of low-ability youth. Indeed, ability grouping seems to have no consistent negative effects on any group or any outcome we studied. Therefore, we reject the claims of opponents of ability grouping that it is harmful to students' achievements, aspirations, or self-perceptions. Instead, we assert that ability grouping may have positive effects on gifted students' learning, the most important educational outcome, and that these effects seem particularly powerful on gifted minority youth. If grouping indeed has positive effects on high-ability youth and no negative effects on low-ability youth, we can see no reason to support the current trend away from ability grouping. Talents are far too rare, and too valuable for society, to be sacrificed on an altar of blind egalitarianism."

The reason fat people find it hard to lose weight is found - "The difference in the number of fat cells between lean and obese people is established in childhood and, although fat people replenish fat cells at the same rate as thin ones, they have around twice as many... The body constantly produces new fat cells to replace equally rapid break down of the already existing fat cells due to cell death. They also show, that overweight people generate and replace more fat cells than do lean - and that the total number of fat cells stays equal after a diet program... The study shows that the sequence is a third more common in those with Indian Asian than in those with European ancestry. This could provide a possible genetic explanation for the particularly high levels of obesity and insulin resistance in Indian Asians, who make up 25 per cent of the world's population, but who are expected to account for 40 per cent of global heart disease by 2020."
But race does not exist, so the researchers must be racist!
"It was beautiful and simple, as truly great swindles are." - O. Henry

***

An email I got. Comments are welcome:


Hello Gabriel,

You don't know me (other than for a comment Ileft on your guestbook about your NYPS article ages ago) but I've beenreading your blog for a number of months now. I am a fellow NUS FASSundergrad and I honestly don't really know why I am writing this emailand disturbing you, an utter stranger, when I ought to be preparing forthe upcoming exams.

Anyway, I'd best be as succinct aspossible. I suppose my main motivation for writing this letter isbecause your blog is one of the few I've read (amongst those blogs byNUS students that I've read) that is smart and witty and isn't justabout trivial gossip and such. From your posts it seems you often talkto similarly intelligent people. And this, I guess, is what I'm reallywriting to you about. Although I've been in FASS for a only relativelyshort time, it seems almost everyone I speak to is an idiot. Perhaps Idon't mean stupid per se, but most of them seem to be the sort ofclose-minded person who rushes home just to watch their favoritemediacorp drama. In order words, I can't help but feel a twinge ofjealousy and probably some despair when I read about the kind of stuffyou post about, because I've never been able to do the same with thekind of people I associate with on campus. It's as if, despite being inthe same faculty, you and I study in different schools altogether.

To be fair, not everyone I meet in school is like this. I'm merely referring to the people I've had the (mis)fortune of associating with to date.

No,this isn't a letter of intent for stalking you or whatever. What Iguess all this boils down to is my wish for the people I interact withto be more intelligent and more critical rather than the rote-learningglorified photocopiers (I'm talking about people who think the lines of'OMG I have no personal opinion but I know how to regurgitate other people's and I have 20 references I'm gonna getan A LOL' [and sadly they really do]) that pass off for undergraduatesaround here.

Thanks for your patience if you've made it thisfar. Sorry for my poor letter writing skills and verbosity. I realizethis will probably get eaten by your spam filter and even if you do getto read it, you'd probably think I'm some weird jackass who likesemailing strangers for fun. That's fine; I'm only writing this becauseit seems, at this point in time, that you're the only fellowundergraduate I know (if only through your blog) who could understandthese sentiments.


Best Regards,
Annoyed in NUS.


Disclaimer:I am assiduously non-elitist. I am not discriminating against lessintelligent people nor am I implying that such people have any lessintrinsic worth.


Hi Gabriel,

Thanks for the reply. Hotmail fubar'ed after I clicked "send" and ate all the spaces for some reason (probably the same general reason why my laptop boots even slower after Vista SP1).

In response to your question - I am a Year * *** undergrad.

You're right, of course. I shouldn't expect much from the bulk of my peers; and in fact, I don't. One would naturally expect even the most intellectually slovenly person to at least make some kind of minor change to their lifestyle after being exposed to modules like even SC1101E. But no, they still go home and get willingly indoctrinated by the ideological tripe on our glorious state channels. They still stand mutely like little school kids when confronted by authority, even if that authority amounts to nothing more than an incompetent taxi driver (a true story). I've tried encouraging them to at least speak up for themselves (IMO the least anyone could do) but it was an exercise in frustration. It's all quite mind-boggling, really, considering the objective of a social science education.

(On a tangential note, I think SC1101E is a really crappy module. I didn't to see such arbitrary marking standards in any FASS discipline, least of all Sociology. In fact I've been totally put off Sociology after taking this module.)

I obviously have not met the right people, but thats where the root of my concerns lie. Social relations here seem rather clique'ish (as they are elsewhere, I suppose) and I've already wasted a year in bad company while these relations get more and more embedded. I'm afraid I won't be able to "penetrate" these cliques and have to stick with the very people I keep complaining about.

I'm probably being too pessimistic here I suppose. I'll have to wait till next semester and see.


Annoyed in NUS.

Sunday, May 04, 2008

"That all men are equal is a proposition which, at ordinary times, no sane individual has ever given his assent." - Aldous Huxley

***

Notes from Thomas Sowell's Affirmative action around the world: an empirical study:

AA In Sri Lanka: History
- There used to be racial harmony between the Tamils and the Sinhalese before AA - there were no race riots in the first half of the 20th century
- Tamil protests at AA started out peaceful, but were whipped up by Sinhalese politicians and Buddhist monks
- Students' test scores underwent 'standardization' - you were graded relative to students in your ethnic group
- "A bus was accosted by a mob and the bus driver ordered to turn over a Tamil. He pointed to a woman passenger who was then taken out into the street, where her belly was ripped open with a broken bottle and she was set on fire. People in the mob 'clapped and danced' as she died in agony"
- Politicizing of intergroup disparities and group identity politics led to the violence
- "Complacency is never in order when racial or ethnic relationships are concerned, for even generations of peaceful co-existence can quickly turn ugly when the right circumstances and the right demagogue come together. Nor are such developments as readily stopped as they are started. Even concessions that would have brought peace in the past can fail to bring peace after many bitter experiences"

AA In Nigeria
- "An econometric study in 1997 estimated that Nigeria's economic growth rate would have been almost double its actual rate if its ethnic diversity were only average for African nations, instead of being nearly double the average."
- The local Nigerians the British hired as low-level administrators "tended to become critical of indigenous African institutions and authorities - and eventually also critical of British authorities and their colonial rule"
- The Northern Muslims were marginalised because they did not want mission schools and thus missed out on educational opportunities
- Group preferences and quotas do not enhance "national unity"

AA In the United States: History
- The Constitution and Civil Rights Act "mandate equal treatment of individials" so AA is disguised as countering discrimination or promoting diversity (though this is not proven)
- AA evolved out of laws "repudiating the principle of group preferences and quotas"
- Though every misfortune of blacks is blamed on whites, almost all of this is false
- Blacks had higher rates of labour force participation and marriage than whites in the late nineteenth century, a generation out of slavery. This continued until the 1960s
- Black education rose before Civil Rights in the 60s and AA in the 70s
- In 1940, 87% of black families were under the family line. In 1960 47% were. This declined to 30% in the 60s; "Vast members of blacks lifted themselves out of poverty - 'by their own bootstraps'"
- The number of blacks moving into professional and higher level occupations was greater in the five years before than the five years after the 1964 Civil Rights Act

AA In the United States: Evidence
- 2/3 of the minority beneficiaries of government contracts (Small Business Administration) had net worths of more than a million. "These programs also benefitted wealthy black athletes like Lou Brock, Julius Erving and O.J. Simpson. Yet when some members of Congress publicly oppossed such programs, Congressman Charles Rangel from Harlem compared them to Hitler and depicted any attempt to roll back affirmative action as an attack on all blacks"
- Between 1967 and 1992, the top 20% of black income earners' income share rose at the same rate as that of equivalent whites, but the bottom 20% of blacks saw their share fell at double that of whites
- Minority immigrants benefit from AA despite not having suffered discrimination: the Fanjul family from Cuba worth $500 million get government contracts designated for minority businesses
- Government contracts benefit a minority of minority businesses, and most of these are not black-owned
- Casino concessions for American concessions benefit a minority: 3 states with 3% of the Indian population get 44% of casino revenue, while 5 states with almost half the Indian population get <3% AA In the United States: Evolution
- The Civil Rights Act of 1964 defined discrimination as intentional and against individuals, not groups, and its passage was aided by assurances that there would be no preferential treatment for anyone
- AA is not just about quotas and preferences: "There has been widespread support in the American population at large [from both liberals and conservatives] for efforts to bring less fortunate groups up to the existing standards, even among people completely opposed to bringing the standards down to these groups"
- Although AA was against the Civil Rights Act, in United Steelworkers of America v. Weber (1979), where a white employee sued for being passed over for promotion in favour of less-senior blacks, the majority opinion rejected "a literal interpretation" of the Act, and the dissent described this as "reminiscent of the great escapes of Houdini"
- In 2003 the Supreme Court ruled "in Grutter v. Bollinger that 'all government use of race must have a logical end point'" but declined to specify one or suggest how one might be determined

AA In the United States: Extensions
- Though the Civil Rights Act required there to be intention discrimination, the burden of proof was later shifted to the alleged discriminator to show he had not discriminated, and statistical disparities could be used as proof of discrimination
- The US Employment Service reported the percentile rankings of job applicants - but this was by racial group (like standardization in Sri Lanka) until it was banned in the Civil Rights Act of 1991
- Due to such laws, there are "incentives for businesses to locate away from concentrations of blacks", resulting in their not getting jobs
- Due to laws on admitting the top 10% of high school classes, regardless of the quality of high school, "Students with composite SAT scores below 900 have been admitted to the University of Texas because they were in the top 10 percent of their high schools, while other students with SAT scores hundreds of points higher - some over 1500 - have been rejected"
- Though blacks have been rising continuously in education and occupation, women have varied; "As far back as 1902, women's share of the people listed in Who's Who was more than double their share in 1958. Women received 34 percent of the Bachelor's degrees in 1920 but only 24 percent in 1950... For no year during the 1950s or 1960s did women receive as high a percentage share of all master's degrees, or of all doctoral degrees, as they had back in 1930"
- If we blame this only on discrimination, we would have to conclude that discrimination increased in the first half and then decreased in the second half of the 20th century
- The variation can be better explained by demographics: how many children women had - the birth rate declined from the late 19th century to the 1930s, then rose from the 1930s to the 1950s and declined after the 1960s
- Justifications for AA always start the graph at the start of AA, ignoring trends in the years before AA was started
- "As far back as 1971, women who remained unmarried into their thirties and who had worked continuously since high school earned slighty more than men of the same description. Academic women who never married averaged slightly higher incomes in 1968-69 - before affirmative action - than academic men who never married"
- "Substantial male-female differences in income reflect the fact that women do get married, do have children, and do interrupt their careers for domestic responsibility more than men do... interruptions of careers in some fields are more damaging to one's career than in other fields. For example, a physicist loses about half the value of his or her knowledge from a six-year layoff, but it would take a historian more than a quarter of a century to suffer a similar loss" (Source)
- "Women tend to specialize in careers where career interruptions are easier to accommodate – teaching rather than computer engineering, for example. Another factor in male-female differences in earnings is that men tend to specialize in more hazardous occupations that pay higher compensation. Although men are 54 percent of the workforce, they account for 92 percent of job-related deaths."
- They have Ali-Baba enterprises in America also
- The extension of AA to more groups (e.g. white women, who are relatively privileged) dilutes its effectiveness for the original groups (i.e. blacks)

AA In the United States: In Academia
- Because they lack the profit motive, government and non-profit organisations can discriminate for or against groups with little cost
- "As of 1936, only three black Ph.D. holders were employed by all the white colleges and universities in the United States. By contrast, more than three hundred black chemists alone were employed in private industry at the same time. To private industry, these black chemists represented profits that could be made by hiring them. But, to a college or university chemistry department, there was no such incentive and they could easily afford to pass over these chemists"
- Colleges' claims of the benefits of "diversity" and why a certain minimum number of a certain race must be admitted to make people of that race feel comfortable are never given empirical support (e.g. comparing data on the academic performance of blacks in colleges with fewer and colleges with greater numbers of blacks)
- Black scholars John H. McWhorter's Losing the Race: Self-Sabotage in Black America and John Ogbu's Black American Students in An Affluent Suburb: A Study of Academic Disengagement seem to show the reverse: "an anti-intellectual black subculture reduces black students' performances well below what they are capable of"
- The evidence seems to favour the benefits of tracking, rather than racial quotas
- The claim that black "role models" are needed is contradicted by a survey of empirical studies which concludes that "there is no systematic evidence that same-gender or same-race/ethnicity role models have significant influence on a range of dependent variables that they are assumed to influence, including occupational choice, learning, and career success"
- Easier admission into colleges results in mismatching, with minority students finding themselves in academic difficulties. Colleges refuse to release information on this.
- A 1988 study showed that at Berkeley, the average SAT score of blacks was 952. The national average was 900, but 1232 for whites and 1254 for Asians. 70% of blacks did not graduate from Berkeley, and though more blacks entered Berkeley in the 1980s, the number of black graduates declined
- 70% of San Jose State University's black students failed to graduate; if the blacks at Berkeley had gone there, the rate would have been much worse. This is "the domino effect of mismatching", and since education is more important for poor blacks, they get screwed
- Racial grading ('affirmative grading') increased racism among white students, and at MIT other students did not want to work with whites on group projects or study for exams with them. This was called "the new racism" by liberal supporters of AA
- In 1969, "black professors with Ph.D.s from top universities and numerous publications were earning more than white professors of the same description"
- Patrick Chavis, admitted under AA to UCD's Medical School, was championed as a success of AA - until his license was suspended in 1997, due to his "inability to perform some of the most basic duties required of a physician". His license was later revoked
- "Plans to use double standards to maneuver black students through medical school were reported to me back in 1969 and published in a 1972 book of mine. Four years later, Professor Bernard Davis of the Harvard Medical School reported in the New England Journal of Medicine that black students there and at other medical schools were being granted diplomas 'on a charitable basis'... The only response to his revelations was a predictable denunciation of him as a 'racist'"

AA In the United States: Empirical Studies
- The 1998 book providing evidence to support AA, The Shape of the River, is unrepresentative and used data on all black students, not just black students admitted under AA. Its results are thus tainted. The raw data has not been made available to other scholars who requested it.
- Colleges which have a smaller gap between the qualifications of black and other students are more likely to have successful black students
- "Black colleges enrol only about one-fourth of all black students in higher education, but their graduates receive 40 percent of all science and engineering degrees received by black students nationwide. Of the ten undergraduate institutions whose black students go on to receive the most Ph.D.s in science, six are black institutions" (i.e. AA has not worked for blacks at non-black colleges)
- After the end of AA in UC in 1996, despite Jesse Jackson yelling "ethnic cleansing", black students redistributed themselves among the UCs, and indeed there were more black freshmen enrolled in 2002 than 1996.
- A look at Asians contradicts claims about low income and cultural bias on tests (at least in SAT Math)
- People don't look at black achievements except inasmuch as that would play into "the politics of grievance and demands"

[Ed: Thomas Sowell is black]

AA: Conclusion
- AA benefits a few (not those who need the help) and screws society as a whole
- The transfer of benefits is overestimated
- Across countries, the general patterns show that "similar incentives and constraints tend to produce similar consequences among human beings in widely disparate circumstances"
- The American Society of Newspaper Editors lamented a drop in "journalists of color" from 11.86 to 11.64 percent (note the 2 decimal places)
- Advocates of AA use "a level playing field" to mean "tilting of the rules to produce a preconceived equalizing of results"
- Worldwide, geographic region, SES and generation (age) result in some groups doing better than others. Often this is clearly not due to bias or discrimination
- Minorities do well in many countries ("Germans in Russia, Armenians in Turkey, Lebanese in West Africa, Italians in Brazil, Indians in Fiji, and Jews throughout Eastern Europe") without being able to discriminate against the majority population; blaming 'racism' automatically for differential group performance is ridiculous
- "The Chinese who immigrated to Malaysia came from circumstances in southern China that had long made hard work and frugality necessary for survival, while the Malay culture developed in easier circumstances, permitting an easier-going way of life"
- The Japanese in America managed to climb the ladder as at the start of the 20th century they "were agricultural laborers and domestic servants to an even greater extent than the blacks" but by 1979 Jap-American males had higher incomes than white American males
- Asians applying for home mortgages are approved at a higher rate than whites, and whites are more likely than Asians to lose their jobs during recessions
- In the US, lumping East Asians with other "Asians and Pacific Islanders" is deceptive, as "Japanese Americans have nearly double the income of Samoans". In Canada, Japanese are part of "visible minorities" and in Britain Chinese are "black" like Indians and Pakistanis.
- Despite claims of the benefits of "diversity", India and Nigeria split up states and provinces so minorities could become majorities, reducing diversity instead
- In Malaysia, Nigeria and Sri Lanka, there was less intergroup violence when there were greater intergroup disparities. It was the politicization of differences that led to violence.
- Shiv Sena, the most intolerant and violent Indian mass movement, started as one seeking AA for Maharashtrians in Bombay
- Black rioters' attacking Korean and Vietnamese shopkeepers in ghettos is ignored by the media for fear of accusations of 'racism'
- Anonymous polls show academics opposed to AA, but public polls show a reversal of preferences
- Maoris outperforming whites in sports in New Zealand, or blacks having 4 of the 5 top totals of career home runs do not prove discrimination despite statistical underrepresentation
- AA in South Africa results in white government workers retiring early and thousands of whites emigrating annually
- AA cannot be empirically supported "unless one is prepared to say that any amount of social redress, however small, is worth any amount of costs and dangers, however large"
"If it weren't for Philo T. Farnsworth, inventor of television, we'd still be eating frozen radio dinners." - Johnny Carson

***

An earlier version of the following got reverted from Wikipedia's Jap article.

I have a feeling someone is going to revert it again so I'll archive it here.

"In Singapore<ref>Power up with Jap lunch, The New Paper, 18 May 2006</ref> and Hong Kong[http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/jas/deptinfo/deptinfo.htm], the term is used freely as a contraction of the adjective "Japanese".

The Australian news service Asia Pulse also uses the term<ref>Chinese Capital Inflow to Leave Taiwan Vulnerable: Jap Newspaper, Asia Pulse, 26 March 2008</ref>.

In Japan itself, most Japanese are apathetic about the term<ref>http://www.jref.com/nikkeiview/jap.shtml</ref>, and the domain JAP.COM used to be run by Japanese people<ref>http://web.archive.org/web/20061205235118/http://www.jap.com/index.html</ref>."



"Jap" in a Hikaru no go cover


"Jap Rice for 50c" - Cathay basement
"Typos are very important to all written form. It gives the reader something to look for so they aren't distracted by the total lack of content in your writing." - Randy K. Milholland

***

My Favourite Periodical:


March 8th:

"Mr Savoia has developed a system to assess the quality of software written in Java, which he has jokingly named “change, risk, analysis and predictions”, or CRAP."

"The second was the violent suppression of a protest in Moscow and the detention of a liberal politician in St Petersburg. The arrest gave new meaning to law enforcement. Maksim Reznik, an activist of the liberal Yabloko party, came out of his office, saw a street squabble between a colleague and a group of thugs, and tried to pull them apart. When the police arrived, they arrested Mr Reznik and let the provocateurs go. Mr Reznik is now in pre-trial detention for two months, charged with assaulting representatives of the state."

"Small, complicated and with names that are hard to spell, Armenia has long been out of the mainstream of world news."

"“God be praised, our village is all Muslim, and we don't have the evil internet,” says Necdet Gulen, Fethullah's cousin."

"It is certainly impressive to see 20,000 people queuing for hours to see a politician. But should they worship their man with such wide-eyed intensity? And should they shout “Yes we can” with such unbridled enthusiasm? The slogan, after all, reminds any parent of “Bob the Builder”, a cartoon for toddlers, and Mr Obama himself rejected it as naff when it was first suggested to him. His supporters are rather like high-school nerds who surround the coolest kid in the class in the hope of looking cool themselves."

"Kenya banned hunting for sport and other consumptive uses of wildlife in the late 1970s. But the competition for land between a rising human population and animals, which can be a danger to crops, life and limb, is intense. Kenya's wild-animal population has fallen by about 70% in the past 30 years, says Michael Norton-Griffiths, an economist in Nairobi. A recent European Union ban on the import of wild birds has had a similar effect. Ostensibly a veterinary measure to prevent the spread of avian influenza, the ban has bankrupted an Argentine plan to conserve the blue-fronted amazon, a parrot, through sustainable use. “It went from a well policed, sustainably managed operation, to one where there was no incentive to conserve the birds at all,” says John Caldwell, who manages CITES's trade database in Britain. As a result, habitat may be stripped out for commercial crops."


March 15th:

"The combination of legalism and puritanism invariably produces the same dismal results. It creates expensive government bureaucracies that seize on any excuse—rules relating to inter-state commerce are a particular favourite—to extend their powers to boss people about or spy on them. It throws up swivel-eyed zealots who pursue their manias with little sense of proportion or decency (remember Kenneth Starr). And it ends by devouring its children. Mr Spitzer is only the latest in an endless line of self-righteous crusaders impaled on their own swords."

"According to one study, while 80% of men say they use a condom during casual sex, only 40% of women say their partners do. (There may be some lying here, as this suggests that the unprotected 20% of men get very little sleep.)"


March 22nd:

[On religion] "Religion might have emerged as a way of improving group co-operation while reducing the need to keep an eye out for free-riders... the more constraints a religious commune placed on its members, the longer it lasted (one is still going, at the grand old age of 149). But the same did not hold true of secular communes, where the oldest was 40. Dr Sosis therefore concludes that ritual constraints are not by themselves enough to sustain co-operation in a community—what is needed in addition is a belief that those constraints are sanctified."

"The researchers' hypothesis was that in religious kibbutzim men would be better collaborators (and thus would take less) than women, while in secular kibbutzim men and women would take about the same. And that was exactly what happened."

"Dr Wilson himself has studied the relationship between social insecurity and religious fervour, and discovered that, regardless of the religion in question, it is the least secure societies that tend to be most fundamentalist."
This explains a lot.

[On Mugabe] "After 1980 the rest of the world, which had been so keen to see Zimbabwean majority rule as a success, chose to look the other way when he ordered massacres in Matabeleland in the south-west of the country. Many in the Catholic church, unable or unwilling to admit that the golden boy educated by missionaries was turning into a monster, continued to endorse him."


March 29th:

"China may rail against those seeking to “politicise” a sporting occasion. But it knows that it has itself introduced the most political elements: a torch relay taking the Olympic flame round the world and, provocatively, through Tibet; and an opening ceremony to which it has invited the world's leaders."

"SIR – I was surprised to read that Britain's chancellor is proposing a tax on plastic shopping-bags (The world this week, March 15th). A recent study in Australia found that banning plastic bags would cost the economy A$1 billion (around $900m) and result in job losses. That is before you properly account for all of the secondary uses for plastic bags, some of which actually help reduce litter. It is also doubtful that getting rid of the bags would have much of an impact on the environment. Heavier shopping bags are not all that “reusable” and have to be replaced. So what is the upside in taxing plastic bags? Maybe it is just the political kudos that comes from pandering to public opinion.

Gerard van Rijswijk
Sydney"

"When researchers ask parents what they enjoy, it turns out that they prefer almost anything to looking after their children. Eating, shopping, exercising, cooking, praying and watching television were all rated more pleasurable than watching the brats, even if they don't bite. As Mr Brooks puts it: “There are many things in a parent's life that bring great joy. For example, spending time away from [one's] children.”"

"American conservatives tend to believe that if you work hard and play by the rules, you can succeed. This makes them more optimistic than liberals, more likely to feel in control of their lives and therefore happier. American liberals, at their most pessimistic, stress the injustice of the economic system, the crushing impersonal forces that keep the little guy down and what David Mamet, a playwright, recently summed up as the belief that “everything is always wrong”... Mr Brooks also finds that extremists of both sides are happier than moderates... Extremists are happy, Mr Brooks reckons, because they are certain they are right. Alas, this often leads them to conclude that the other side is not merely wrong, but evil. Some two-thirds of America's far left and half of the far right say they dislike not only the other side's ideas, but also the people who hold them."

"A county in Virginia recently banned giving food to the homeless unless it was prepared in a county-approved kitchen, to prevent food poisoning. Churches stopped ladling soup, and more homeless people were forced to scavenge in skips. This hurt not only the hungry, but also the volunteers who might have found satisfaction in helping them."
Ah, regulation!

"Hunger as such is the wrong target, says Meera Shekar of the World Bank. Hunger is transient and hard to measure, but malnutrition, she notes, is a pernicious killer (with lack of food as only one contributing variable). She points out that South Asia, which has plentiful food, suffers from twice the level of malnutrition as crisis-prone sub-Saharan Africa."

"America's defences have also been undermined by a tendency to treat homeland security as another form of political pork... America's list of potential terrorist targets includes a petting zoo, a popcorn factory and an annual parade of mules."

"An Obama presidency might well produce a frenzy of good feeling that dissolves into disillusionment on both sides."


April 5th:

"Profound faith is probably less widespread than its symbols: drug-dealers in Frankfurt flaunt Islam as rappers do bling."

"Smoking bans seem to have been followed by an increase in drunk-driving and in fatal accidents involving alcohol. In research published in the Journal of Public Economics, the authors find evidence that smokers are driving farther to places where smoking in bars is allowed... They found a smoking ban increased fatal alcohol-related car accidents by 13% in a typical county containing 680,000 people. This is the equivalent of 2.5 fatal accidents (equivalent to approximately six deaths)."

[On Israel] "Leftists are furious when right-wingers describe Palestinians as “backward”, “dirty” or “fanatical”, but they themselves can be heard saying the same about the ultra-Orthodox."

"The rabbis, says Kimi Kaplan, a sociologist who studies the haredim, have belatedly realised that the best way to keep their young men from the temptations of homosexuality is not to mention it."

"“The depressing truth is that financial literacy is impossible, at least for many of the big financial decisions all of us have to take,” says Richard Thaler, a behavioural economist at the University of Chicago. Aptly for someone who has built his career on the study of irrational financial behaviour, Mr Thaler admits that even he finds it hard to know the right thing to do. “If these things are perplexing to people with PhDs in economics, financial literacy is not the right road to go down.”"

"“It takes less credentials to be a mortgage broker than a pimp on a street corner in Harlem,” he says. “Because a pimp needs references.”"

[On the Lisbon Earthquake] "Parts of the church viewed the earthquake as God's punishment. An influential Jesuit, Gabriel Malagrida, published his “Opinion on the True Cause of the Earthquake”, arguing that rebuilding was an offence against God. The Jesuits sought to prevent reconstruction. The conflict between clerical and secular authorities came to a head with an assassination attempt on the king"
It's a pity they didn't have the Sedition Act at the time, or this would not have happened.


April 12th:

"WERE shooting oneself in the foot an Olympic event, China would surely be well placed for a gold... the suppression of riots and protests in Tibet has ensured the torch's progress has graduated from minor diplomatic embarrassment to full-scale public-relations disaster... To accuse China's critics of “politicising” a sporting event is nonsense. What has the relay to do with sport? It is not some timeworn practice integral to the games. Rather, the idea of a relay from Greece to the Olympic venue was revived by the Nazis for the 1936 Berlin Olympics, which is hardly a precedent China wants to advertise"

"SIR - I reject Charlemagne's suggestion that a pre-nuptial agreement dampens romantic ardour. Marrying for money is as old as history. A pre-nup proves that the match is not driven by financial considerations, which means it must be love after all.

Martin Graham
London"

"SIR – Barack Obama is dismissing the will of Democratic voters in Michigan and Florida, where Hillary Clinton won both primaries, by not wanting to count their delegates on the basis that those states broke the party's rules on election schedules (“Of snipers and sniping”, March 29th). Yet his campaign shows little respect for the party's rules on allowing superdelegates to pick whichever candidate they prefer when it argues that if the superdelegates choose Mrs Clinton they will be betraying the will of voters. Mr Obama is pursuing every advantage he can without regard to principle.

Jeff James
Kirkland, Washington"

"Nobody knows how many were killed as the protests were quashed; much of Myanmar remains an information chasm. A United Nations rapporteur has said at least 31 died. In Yangon many believe, probably wrongly, that hundreds or thousands did. Suppressing the truth lets all sorts of rumours flourish... [The generals] can return to what they do best: wrecking their country and making a good living out of it... It is not that the economy is on the point of collapse. It collapsed long ago. Those eking out a living in the rubble are still vulnerable to aftershocks."

[On Tibet and the Olympic flame] "The Chinese press has portrayed the disruptions as marginal, amid massive shows of support by ordinary citizens. State television aired a brief comment by Paula Radcliffe, a British marathon runner, endorsing the importance of the protesters' cause while condemning their methods. The Chinese subtitle, however, removed the endorsement. The Chinese press have called the thugs in blue and white “valiant and heroic”... Just as damaging for China in the long run, however, may be the effect on ordinary citizens. One place the Tibetan flag no longer flies is in the window of a bed shop in the English city of Sheffield. Its owner is a Tibetan sympathiser, who displayed the flag last month. Two young Chinese, apparently students, visited and made threats. That night his windows were smashed. A celebration supposed to mark China's emergence as a friendly global power has made some people think for the first time that its rise is something to fear."

"Chinese leaders have another reason not to gloat over the KMT's victory. Officials in Beijing have long cited Taiwan as an example of the pitfalls of democracy, with its frequent street protests and its gridlocked legislature. Yet now a smooth transfer of power appears to be under way. China does not want its citizens drawing lessons from that."

"WHEN Chinese officials talk about security threats to the Olympic games, they use the term loosely. They worry not just about terrorist attacks, but about behaviour in the stands that poses no more of a risk than embarrassment to the hosts."

"Five of the ten bestselling novels in Japan last year were written on mobile phones."

[On the Stata centre at MIT] "Students, teachers and visitors are cramming for exams, flirting, napping, instant-messaging, researching, reading and discussing. No part of the student street is physically specialised for any of these activities. Instead, every bit of it can instantaneously become the venue for a seminar, a snack or romance."

"Bizarre new patterns were cropping up, such as a “reverse commute” in Seattle as lots of male computer scientists at Microsoft in the suburb of Redmond raced downtown to find females—a weekday ritual called “the running of the programmers”.

"In the 1990s, as the internet came into widespread use, sociologists, never an upbeat bunch to begin with, became decidedly pessimistic."

"For about 250 years, the consensus in Western societies has been that grammar, syntax and spelling matter, and that rules have to be observed. That consensus now appears to be at risk... The academically and politically correct response is to welcome this trend with open arms. Language, after all, appears only to be returning to its natural and healthy state of flux. When Geoffrey Chaucer was writing in the 14th century there were no set spelling rules, but he managed to compose interesting texts nonetheless. For all we know, today's digital and mobile world might be teeming with potential Chaucers."

"“I am as American as April in Arizona,” Nabokov wrote in 1966. It's a beautiful sentence. That it does not really mean anything, makes it no less beautiful or American."
"I take my wife everywhere, but she keeps finding her way back." - Henny Youngman

***

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2girls1cup - This got California Girl and Lynnette.
making love with a woman
urinal view - This got the view from the Siegessäule
illegal realdoll
arab breast
there palm trees in austrailia
pink camouflage wallpaper

Saturday, May 03, 2008

"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools." - Herbert Spencer

***



A Dreamcatcher's Plan

"The following five years will be an extremely exciting period for me. The engine of my career has started, and I believe that that of my family will begin soon. This is the period that I will truly cherish.

Price or Value?

Should I liberalize, so that I will be able to marry a 'better' girl (whatever that means)? Or should I maintain an exclusive consideration policy right from the beginning, so that if she's the one, then I would have provided maximum loyalty possible to her?

But there is a problem. What if she's not the one? Life usually does not progress in a linear fashion, especially romance. We may make meaningless roundabouts, as long as one party is uncommitted. Hence, my forecast could turn out to be horribly inaccurate.

From my own perspective, liberalization could serve to raise my 'price' but reduce my 'value'. My price is raised because by attracting multiple considerations, the invisible hand goes to work to raise my price, hence making myself more desirable to certain other girls. If I do this well enough, I might generate some sort of a "Kelvin Mania" and get myself overpriced, allowing me to choose a 'hotter' girl before it dies down.

However, the price of something does not always reflect its value, especially when the value could be adversely affected by its price. Values such as consistency and faithfulness could be compromised if executed wrongly. Worse, I could alienate the very type of girls that I am seeking to attract. In the end, I could be left with girls who have no long term holding value, and the girls with the lasting value of diamonds would be married off to less pricey but more valuable guys.

This dilemma is a very interesting problem to dissect. Thankfully, we live in a four-dimensional world, so the matching inefficiencies could be ironed out by time. Even if I mis-valued a girl, thinking that she's the dedicated type but actually she's not, by locking on to her, I might decimate my own price (because I could be labeled as a desperado) in the eyes of some, but boost my value in the eyes of others (due to my loyalty and forgiveness) as time progresses.

Eventually, I would have to drop her, and by then I would have been in the radar screen of the value-investing type (loyal and loving) due to my lower price-to-value ratio (similar to PERs), and near-zero volatility, with long-term fundamental appreciation value (I hope). And since this operation is a mutual merger and acquisition that both of us cannot sell, pro-value behavior would be the optimal choice.

The wise girl would have studied my capability to build the happiness that she could nurture and multiply before committing her heart (should I be worth it, keeping fingers crossed! >.<). The average girl however would have just stopped at the price tag and moved on. I would be standing by to 'merge' with a woman with significant synergistic properties and the best way to make this happen is to preserve and boost my value as far as possible...

I have ordered Kokoro-chan to disengage her indefinitely based on Omoi-kun's recommendations. Kokoro-chan's influence has been too powerful for Omoi-kun to operate rationally. Furthermore, the thoughts are beginning to turn malignant, a sign that the devil is creeping in, so an emotional injunction is necessary at this point.

With Game Theory's help, the plan is in place, such that should she be the one, it would be a powerful testimony for God (1 Corinthians 13:8). If she's not the one, I would have been consistent with my conscience, her, my family, and most importantly, my future wife. She would have full access to the files of this case, codenamed "Cherub", during our courtship, so I'm keeping a close tab on the incoming information and archiving all of my thoughts...

Proving My Love 2



ii) Why did Christ have to come down Himself to save us?
“For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life.” (John 3:16)

Alright, this time round the model looks like this:


Where
i = each of His subjects, i.e. everyone who was ever born or will be born
e.g. 1 = Adam, 2 = Eve

Notice that God is sinless. Hence, there is a big fat 0 at the spot where sin usually lies. In order words, God’s love is infinite. So, no matter what you do, for as long as you elect to be within His grace through faith, salvation is yours to have...

Introducing: Kokoro-chan (心ちゃん)

The profile draft is out! This is a sneak preview of ケルバーズ心, or Kokoro Kelvers. As extensively elaborated in "The Seven-year Promise", Kokoro-chan represents my emotional self. And yes, she's female, despite the A-cup.

She is, if I'm allowed to quote myself, a manifestation of "softness, kindness, sweetness, and all things adorable [that] should be attributed to the female type". First born in May 09, 2005, as one of two consciences (the other is Omoi-kun, my mind) engaging in a dialogue in "The Hopes of the Heart and Mind" ("心思意念"), finally the readers will be able to have a confirmed visualization of the girl who is my heart, thanks to the tireless effort of Bonniez, my deviantartist brother.


Even in the first draft, we can see that she is kind of an extroverted, dramatic girl who cannot sit still. Her favourite expression is "Kyah~~~~" (out of adoration), which appears without fail when she encounters something cute, cheesy, or just plain random.

Whenever I think about my future happiness, this is how she would look (on the left). Sometimes she gets to excited that I would have to stop fantasizing, otherwise I'll start to puke (just joking).


Kokoro-chan would just stay at home most of the time, and her favourite past time is none other than eating. Don't worry, she only consumes food for thought, which contains 0 kcals, which also explains her A-cup. Recently she was let out to play for about a month and came back exhausted, so seeing her upbeat with that favourite bowl of rice of hers is very reassuring.

As you can see, she has beautiful hair which is slightly curly at the ends. This is her usual relaxed self. There would be times where she would be summoned to love, of which she would shed her usual cheerful, carefree self and enter combat mode to engage the other Kokoro-chan. (Her hair reaches waist length when in combat, of which the visualization would be ready in due time.) The recent stint, despite certain miscalculations due to information asymmetry, could be considered successful. Kokoro-chan was able to accomplish the mission objectives set and returned only with minor scratches which have fully healed. I asked her, "Are you okay? Hurting anywhere?", of which she replied "うん!大丈夫よ!" ("Yep, I'm fine!")

She should be two to three times stronger on her next assignment. I'll be training her further still with the current simulator that I have, which I hope is representative.


Finally, the scar. By the way, she's wearing a bikini bottom, so please don't worry. She sustained major injuries during her first and what we thought would be a lifelong mission. Due to the amount of dedication she put in, she was unaware of the hallucination that she was suffering and in the end had to be placed on life support for awhile. Alas, she recovered fully and emerged far stronger than before. What remains of that episode, is the scar that runs diagonally across her back, as a result of the impact that came from behind.

And there you have it - Kokoro-chan! She will be playing a major role in ensuring that I will be a caring, sensitive and romantic husband of the future for my wife-to-be. Let's go Kokoro-chan, to a whole new world!


Illustration: Aaron "Bonniez" Tan (shilun on deviantart)
Character Development: Kelvin "Komo" Tan"


Uhh.................

And it's bad maths to throw a division by zero into your model.
Somehow I doubt Shutdown Day (today) will be very successful, especially in Singapore/among Singaporeans.

Leave a comment if you're not taking part.


Addendum: As I post this, the website for Shutdown Day is down. Finally - people who practice what they preach!


When Is International 'Shut Up Day'?

"You know what else would be impossible without computers and the Internet? International Shutdown Day! They could never organize such an event without their Web site, plus online publications and social networks to spread the word.

I don't accept the conventional wisdom in some quarters that computers and other gadgets are some kind of addiction, a dark mental prison that keeps us from living our lives.

In fact, the opposite is true. Internet connected computers and mobile devices can free us from being chained to a desk or a factory floor. If people choose to spend all day, every day using computers, then that's what they should do. If they want to unplug this Saturday, every Saturday or every day, well, technology gives us the choice.

My proposal is that we all celebrate something else this Saturday. How about "International Computer Appreciation Day"? Or "Ironic Non-Profit Organization Day"? Or -- best of all -- "International Shut Up Day" -- a day where we all just leave each other alone to enjoy the technology we are so lucky to have access to -- every day."

Friday, May 02, 2008

Notes from Thomas Sowell's Affirmative action around the world: an empirical study:

AA In Malaysia: History
- "Where some Malays did work alongside the Chinese on rubber plantations, their output per worker was less than half that of the Chinese... The frugal Chinese lifestyle, for example, was very different from that of the Malays, who were known for free spending and for going into debt for the sake of social celebrations"
- Despite preferential treatment for Malays under the British (free education, no restrictions on owning land, bureaucratic jobs), the Chinese outperformed them
- Singapore's expulsion from Malaysia is "one of the few times in history when a country has voluntarily divested itself of part of its own territory"
- More than half the officers in the Malaysian air force were Chinese in 1969
- Suppression of public questioning of racial policies has been "a severe limit on the kind of racial demagoguery that has torn other multi-ethnic countries apart"
- The 1969 riots (which justified the NEP [New Economic Policy]) were caused by angry Malays rioting in response to jubilant Chinese celebrating the UMNO-led coalition's close election victory (the coalition compromised in the face of Malay extremism)
- The NEP was supposed to end in 1990, but was replaced by the National Development Policy (the same under a new name)

AA In Malaysia: Practice
- Those who benefit from the transfer of corporate equity are "elites whose political support was important to the ruling coalition"
- The NEP is a way to dispense patronage: UMNO politicians' business enterprises get preferential treatment from the government
- The Malays were benefit are members of UMNO or relatives or proteges of UMNO officials. Those who oppose the coalition were cut off from benefits
- "Loans to give Malays preferential access to credit to start businesses became in practice gifts because of a widespread feeling that these 'loans do not have to be repaid'"; the debtors were also politically untouchable
- Of 314 companies set up by SEDCs (State Economic Development Corporations), in 1982 <1/3 made a profit, 125 lost money and 86 didn't bother to file reports
- AA primarily benefitted those who were already well off/well connected
- AA was not because the Malays were wretchedly poor, but because their relative standing was embarrassing

AA In Malaysia: Education
- The switch to Malay as a medium of instruction marginalised the Chinese and the Indians, who were used to being educated in English
- Most Indians seeking higher education left Malaysia
- In 1993, education in English at University was permitted in science, technology and medicine, where they lacked skilled personnel and they could not get enough Malays to replace the other races
- "Malay students, who sense that their future is assured, feel less pressure to perform"
- Educational standards have declined in the universities after AA's effects on student admissions and faculty hiring

AA In Malaysia: Economy
- There has not been much difference in the relative incomes of Chinese and Malays after the NEP (official statistics have used changing measures over the years), but income shifts were also affected by Chinese migration, urbanisation and the shift in the economy (from Primary to non-Primary industries)
- Between 1976 and 1985, $12 billion of capital left Malaysia, mostly Chinese-owned
- An early evaluation of the NEP was that "at most 5 percent" of Malays benefited from it
- The income share of the top 10% of Malays rose significantly

AA In Malaysia: Singapore
- "Some Malays express a preference for Chinese neighbors 'because they consider that the Chinese will not intrude or interfere in their personal or family lives.' Some Malay parents and children 'choose schools where there are more Chinese and few Malays, in the hope that the student will learn good study habits from the Chinese while also avoiding Malay company'. Chinese as well as Malay parents recognize such differences. As one study found:
Some parents note with pride that their children have mostly Chinese friends, because they mix with fellow Chinese students at school and avoid Malay company in the neighborhood. In the process of attempting to gain social mobility through education, it is not only non-studious children who must be avoided but Malay children in general, since non-studiousness is a trait taken by Malays (as well as non-Malays) to characterize Malays as an ethnic group.

While it is fashionable in some quarters to dismiss such views of groups as 'stereotypes,' the people who hold these views are in daily contact with the groups in question, while those who dismiss their beliefs are often far removed from the scene. Moreover, the same view is shared by both ethnic groups in this case." [Ed: so much for the reality of lived experiences]
- AA cannot be the reason why Malaysia has seen peace between Malays and Chinese, because Singapore doesn't have it either. What they both have is draconian laws.
- Malays in Singapore have better education and economic status than in Malaysia

AA In Malaysia: Conclusion
- "Extraordinary economic prosperity and growth, combined with extraordinary repression of free speech, can make preferential programs politically viable and repress mass intergroup violence"
- "Malaysia's experience is very relevant... to a widespread belief in some countries that ethnic imbalances can only be a result of discrimination against the under-represented group - and that any suggestion that this is due to a failure of the group itself to achieve the same qualifications as others is 'blaming the victim,' if not racism. No one is Malaysia has been in any position to discriminate against the Malays or to victimize them otherwise"
- Even when the University of Malaysia was run by Malays, Malays were underrepresented
- Mahathir "lamented the fact that bumiputeras are not serious in completing government projects because they tend to sell them to second, third, and fourth parties. According to the prime minister, nearly 85 percent of the projects have not been completed."
"Sometime they'll give a war and nobody will come." - Carl Sandburg

***

I am reading Thomas Sowell's Affirmative action around the world: an empirical study. Uncharacteristically, instead of pasting extracts, I shall just post a few points:

Introduction
- In considering affirmative action (AA), people usually look at the theory and rarely at the results
- The term was coined by JFK, but he meant it as assurance that everyone had equal employment opportunities regardless of "race, color, creed, or national origin" (ah, how ironic)
- Though AA is always proposed to be temporary (In India, a 10 year period was proposed for untouchable quotas - in 1949), it not only persists but grows. Sometimes it expands way beyond its original intentions - AA in Pakistan was designed in 1949 to benefit Bengalis, but they continued even after the independence of Bangladesh in 1971
- Besides 'affirmative grading', ethnic studies are another way of helping members of minority groups (e.g. Maori studies in New Zealand and Malay Studies in Singapore)

The nature of inequality
- Although the intention to eliminate economic inequality is good, economic inequality spans "virtually the entire world and virtually the entire history of the human race". A temporary program to eliminate a perennial problem is a contradiction
- Worldwide, "All multi-ethnic societies exhibit a tendency for ethnic groups to engage in different occupations, have different levels (and, often, types) of education, receive different incomes, and occupy a different place in the social hierarchy". For example, 40% of Tsarist Russia's army high command was German (1% of the population)
- "People differ - and have for centuries.... Any "temporary" policy whose duration is defined by the goal of achieving something that has never been achieved before, anywhere in the world, could more fittingly be characterized as eternal."

People respond to incentives
- When there is AA, people try to get classified as members of that group (Australian aborigines, American Indians, Minorities in China)
- Members of preferred groups become fronts for others (e.g. Ali Baba enterprises in Indonesia and Malaysia)
- AA leads other groups to lobby for privileges too (e.g. Eunuchs and others in India, resulting in the untouchables, the original targets of the policy, becoming marginalised)
- AA often benefits the least disadvantaged members of the target group (who might be better off than the average citizen)
- Both members of privileged and non-privileged groups may work less hard, either since they don't need to work or working will be useless anyway. A zero-sum game becomes a negative-sum game.
- Members of non-privileged groups emigrate, impoverishing the country
- The success of members of privileged groups is attributed to quotas, not to their ability

Intergroup relations
- The backlash against AA in the US was not because Blacks displaced Whites, but because they displaced them unfairly (In colleges, Asians displaced Whites even more, but there was little backlash against them)
- AA contributed to riots in Gujarat and the Sri Lankan civil war

Evidence
- Before/after comparisons are inadequate (post hoc, ergo propter hoc)
- The proportion of blacks going to college doubled in the 2 decades before the Civil Rights revolution, and in many other metrics, blacks advanced quicker before than after the 60s

AA In India: History
- 16% of the population are untouchables, 8% members of 'backward tribes' and 52% belong to 'other backward classes' (that's 3/4 of the population)
- Atrocities against untouchables have increased with time (at least 13,000 a year in the 1980s and 20,000 a year in the 1990s)
- AA benefits only 6% of untouchable families
- Enforcing untouchable rights in Ceylon in the 1930s led to violence (luckily they did not write discrimination into the Constitution to forestall the violence)
- Some people didn't consider untouchables Hindus since they were literally outside the caste system but later they were included to increase the Hindu:Muslim ratio for political reasons

AA In India: Practice
- The really poor do not benefit from educational quotas, since you need a certain level of wealth to be able to go to school in the first place (books and supplies, distance to schools, the opportunity cost of lost labour): even with lower admission standards, AA groups do not manage to fill their quota
- Members of AA groups go to less demanding institutions, read easier (and less well paying) subjects, take longer to graduate and drop out more often
- Besides education, other benefits like government jobs, housing subsidies, health benefits etc need preexisting resources to be utilised, which is why more prosperous members of AA groups take most of the benefits
- Chamars, one of the most successful scheduled castes, crowd out other AA groups
- Quotas for legislative seats don't work: only 5/65 untouchable subcastes were represented in Andhra Pradesh's legislature and most legislators in untouchable seats in Rajasthan were not born untouchable
- Adoption is a way to get yourself reclassified as an untouchable
- Besides AA resulting in polarization, groups also resort to violence to get their quotas
- Indian cities were renamed not so much because their British names were disliked but more so they would have the names they had before the Muslim conquests
- Xenophobic movements seeking AA has led to more xenophobia: Valentine's Day celebrations are banned in Uttar Pradesh and in Orissa Christians have been attacked
- Neither the rich nor the poor, of AA or non-AA groups, are likely to be affected by it. It's the middle classes who suffer or benefit
- "Affirmative action in India has produced minimal benefits to those most in need and maximum resentments and hostility toward them on the part of others"
- AA has led to non-objective standards being used, which increases the complexity and the mess
- To fix the mess, AA groups need to be told unpleasant truths, members of AA groups which don't need the help need to be chased off and taxpayers must fork out more money to cover complementary costs. No one has done this
- Intellectuals need to "give up easy indulgence in moral melodrama", look at practice instead of theory and stop advocating easy feel-good gestures

Thursday, May 01, 2008

"Millions for defense, sir, but not one cent for tribute." - Charles Pinckney

***

One of my favourite poems:


Dane-geld
(A.D. 980-1016)

Rudyard Kipling

It is always a temptation to an armed and agile nation
To call upon a neighbour and to say: --
"We invaded you last night--we are quite prepared to fight,
Unless you pay us cash to go away."

And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
And the people who ask it explain
That you've only to pay 'em the Dane-geld
And then you'll get rid of the Dane!

It is always a temptation for a rich and lazy nation,
To puff and look important and to say: --
"Though we know we should defeat you, we have not the time to meet you.
We will therefore pay you cash to go away."

And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.

It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say: --

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that pays it is lost!"



Rational expectations, negotiating with terrorists and all that.
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