North Korean soldier refuses to drop sausage during capture in Kursk - "“He had a grenade and a knife on his body armor, which he showed he was dropping. In his pouches, there was something red we initially thought was a makeshift lighter. But when he took it out, it was a sausage – he was indicating it was for eating… and he wouldn’t drop it, we let him keep it,” Pavlo said... the captured soldier calmed down after receiving food and medical attention and even requested romance movies in Korean."
US can't confirm North Korean soldiers in Russia hooked on porn after getting internet access
Democrats Invite Foreign Leader To Meddle In U.S. Elections | Babylon Bee - "Democrats celebrated as foreign leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited an ammunition factory in the hotly contested swing state of Pennsylvania to meddle in U.S. elections."
Visegrád 24 on X - "BREAKING: The famous Russian ballet dancer, Putin-critic and opponent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Shklyarov, has died at the age of 39. He fell out from a window of his fifth-floor apartment in St. Petersburg."
Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win - "“AFTER 970 days of war,” said Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, visiting Kyiv on October 21st, “Putin has not achieved one single strategic objective.” And Mr Austin offered confidence: “Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine.” In private, however, his colleagues in the Pentagon, Western officials and many Ukrainian commanders are increasingly worried about the direction of the war and Ukraine’s ability to hold back Russian advances over the next six months... The problem is not so much the loss of territory, which is limited and has come at enormous cost to Russia—600,000 dead and wounded since the start of the war, on American estimates, and 57,000 dead this year to October alone, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Ukrainian units are under-strength and overstretched, worn thin by heavy casualties. Despite a new mobilisation law that took effect in May, the army, outside a handful of brigades, has struggled to recruit enough replacements, with young men reluctant to sign up to tours of duty that are at best indefinite and, at worst, one-way missions. Western partners are privately urging Ukraine’s leaders to lower the mobilisation age floor from 25 to increase the potential pool of recruits. But political sensitivities and fears over an already alarming demographic crisis stand in the way of any change. In a recent essay, Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London, identifies several reasons for Ukraine’s declining fortunes. One is a shortfall in its air-defence interceptors, allowing Russian reconnaissance drones to establish what he calls “continuous and dense surveillance”. These in turn cue up ballistic-missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian artillery in the rear and glide bombs against troops at the front, allowing Russia to make slow but steady advances in small units, often using motorcycles because tanks are too easy to spot. Ukraine’s limited stock of shells—Russia currently has a two-to-one advantage in shellfire, according to Ivan Havrilyuk, Ukraine’s deputy defence minister—as well as tanks and armoured vehicles compounds that problem. The less firepower and armour are available, the greater the reliance on infantry and the greater the casualties. Russia is not without its own serious problems. Next year it will spend a third of its national budget on defence, starving the civilian economy in the process. Inflation is perhaps double the official annual rate of more than 8%. In 2025 ordinary Russian families will begin to feel the economic pain for the first time, says a European intelligence official, adding that there are early signs of war fatigue among those closely connected to the conflict, such as mothers and other family members. On the battlefield, Russia still relies on crude tactics that result in massive casualties. The decision to borrow thousands of North Korean troops, who are thought to be bound for the Kursk front, shows that Russian units are also stretched... Russia’s defence industry depends in part on the refurbishment of Soviet-era stocks, which are getting low in critical areas such as armoured vehicles. It is nonetheless far outperforming Western production lines. The EU claims to be making more than 1m shells per year; Russia is making three times as many, and is also boosted by supplies from North Korea and Iran... Russia cannot fight for ever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first"
Time for more expensive energy and even more deindustrialisation to fight climate change
'Fat Russian Leonardo DiCaprio' sent to fight at Ukraine front after weight gain spoils likeness to A-lister - "A Russian computer programmer who rose to short-lived fame for his resemblance to actor Leonardo DiCaprio has been sent to fight in Ukraine because he packed on too many pounds and wasn’t working anymore, according to a report in Russian media. Roman Burtzev, 41, of Moscow, went viral in 2016 after posting his picture on a dating website, when he was branded with the mixed-compliment moniker, “the Russian fat version of Leonardo DiCaprio” due to his likeness to the Oscar-winner — most obviously his piercing blue eyes."
Ukrainians increasingly willing to cede land for peace: survey
UNN on X - "David Lammy makes the Ukraine conflict about race and his experiences as a 'black man'. It really doesn't get much more embarrassing than this."
Hippokleides on X - ""Foreign Secretary, what chance is there for a negotiated peace?"
"I'm Black."
"Do you think the Kursk offensive will bring Russia to the tabe?"
"Black good, empire bad."
"Mr Lammy...?"
"Black. I'm Black.""
TIFF screens controversial doc 'Russians at War' amid protests, tight security - "The Toronto International Film Festival screened the controversial "Russians at War" documentary under "exceptional" circumstances, the festival's CEO said Tuesday as he shared more details about the threats that delayed the film's North American première. TIFF CEO Cameron Bailey told the audience at the film's first screening on Tuesday that while most of the opposition to the documentary has been civil and peaceful, festival staff received "terrifying" threats that ranged from emails and phone calls to verbal abuse. "Our staff also received threats of violence, including threats of sexual violence," Bailey said in his onstage remarks before the film was shown at the TIFF Lightbox... The film, which captures the experiences of Russian soldiers on the front lines of the war in Ukraine, has sparked considerable backlash from Ukrainian officials and the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, who called it "Russian propaganda." Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, meanwhile, has condemned the use of public funds to finance and screen the documentary, which received $340,000 from the Canada Media Fund and was produced in partnership with Ontario’s public broadcaster, TVO... TVO’s board of directors retracted its support for the film and cancelled plans to broadcast it on the network. Demonstrators who gathered outside the TIFF Lightbox Tuesday said they were outraged by the festival's decision to proceed with the screenings, even though many of them said they have no plans to see the documentary. The Ukrainian Canadian Congress has also said that it hasn't seen the film. Russian Canadian filmmaker Anastasia Trofimova has told The Canadian Press that her documentary was filmed without the Russian government's permission, which put her at risk of criminal prosecution. She has denied the propaganda claims and defended her previous documentary work for Russia's state-owned broadcaster RT, adding that she believes the invasion of Ukraine is unjustified and illegal... The film shows the disillusionment of some Russian soldiers who question the purpose of the attacks on Ukraine and their own roles in the war. "I believe that surrendering to pressure from some members of the public or from a government when it comes to presenting any cultural product can become a corrosive force in our society," Bailey said. During the Tuesday afternoon screening, one person stood up in the theatre and started shouting about people who have died in the war, but they were escorted out by security. After the screening, some audience members challenged Trofimova to explain why the documentary didn't include more historical context and facts about the war's casualties. Trofimova said such documentaries have already been made; her film is about "the ordinary man … who is a cog in the war machine."... One attendee said that after watching "Russians at War," she does not believe the propaganda accusations are founded. "If this is Russian propaganda, they need a new propaganda department because they don't come off looking very good in it at all," Naomi Campbell said... Ivanka Tymchuk, who sits on the board of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, told reporters outside the Tuesday afternoon screening that use of public funds for this film is "not OK" and that protesters don't want to see "Russians at War" screened at any other film festivals in the country."
Ironic. Apparently defending democracy involves trying to censor and cancel 'opposing' views (even if you have no idea what they are), and threatening those you disagree with, including with sexual violence. Government support for the arts must be conditional on it pushing the narrative. Making an anti-war Ukraine film is bad if you don't demonise Russians
Thread by @ColbyBadhwar on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App - "Better to ask for forgiveness than for permission: Ukraine's Kursk Operation has outmanoeuvred both Russia & United States. The Biden Administration has been boxed in and forced to give tacit approval to an operation they didn't know of & are still reticent about... Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been fighting two fronts: Russia on the battlefields and intransigent western governments in the halls of power. Fear of escalation has severely limited the quantity and quality of weapons willingly provided to Ukraine. Ukraine has been forced to comply with absurd restrictions placed on them out of fear that it would jeopardize what security assistance they do receive from the United States. Efforts by the UK to have the Biden Admin lift the restrictions have been unsuccessful. None of Ukraine's arguments have resolved the fundamental problem: Russia is free to strike all of Ukrainian territory with impunity, but Ukraine cannot respond in kind. The Biden Administration remains adamant that "deep strikes" are both too escalatory & unnecessary.
Of course, at the end of May/beginning of June, the Biden Admin implemented an extremely limited policy change that allowed Ukraine to defend itself against attacks coming across the border from Belgorod, and later Kursk Oblasts. Long-range fires remained prohibited. This change was really too little, too late though. Had Ukraine been granted permission sooner, they could have disrupted Russia's Kharkiv offensive before it was launched. By the time Ukraine fired its first defensive strike on Belgorod, Russia had almost culminated. Despite indicating that the policy could be further revised, over the past 11 weeks, there has been no change. Ukraine has been put in the impossible position of having to continue fighting with 1 hand behind their back, because President Biden is afraid of Vladimir Putin.
No argument that Ukraine has made, no action they have taken — striking Russian energy infrastructure, an early ballistic missile warning radar, and other strategic targets — has been able to convince the Biden Admin that Russia will not escalate. What else could they do?
𝙀𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙆𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙠: President Zelensky made a decision to start pushing the envelop; to test the seriousness of Biden's threats of terminating aid if they violate the conditions. The operation caught the Russians, the United States, and us analysts off guard. The differing initial reactions from the Biden Admin and the Europeans was an interesting contrast. With the latter giving their approval, and the former's John Kirby saying they were: “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little bit better understanding.”
The next day, the Pentagon bizarrely claimed that: “It is consistent with our policy and we have supported Ukraine from the very beginning to defend themselves against attacks that are coming across the border.” This is of course not true, as that policy dates to June. The policy never permitted Ukraine to use American weapons to launch large-scale ground operations into Russia. Attacking a quiet section of the border in Kursk violates the conditions that Ukraine can only return fire or target imminent threats. I am sure there will be no shortage of clueless individuals claiming without evidence that Ukraine was given more latitude than what was publicly disclosed, but this is obviously untrue. All evidence shows that the Admin did not know & remains skeptical of the operation... If that wasn't enough already, President Zelensky himself has said that "no one knew about our preparations". He goes on to speak at length about the strategic calculus behind the operation. The primary motivation is of course the destruction of Putin's illusory red lines. By taking the fight onto sovereign Russian territory, Ukraine has further demonstrated the hollowness of the Kremlin's nuclear sabre rattling. They have shifted the Overton Window & forced the Biden Admin top tacitly accept a new status quo in how US weapons can be used. This was of course not without risk, but President Zelensky correctly calculated that it would be more dangerous to continue fighting with one hand tied behind the back. The strong show of support from both Europe and the US Congress has helped further box Biden in. The task ahead for Ukraine is to maintain momentum; not just for the ongoing operation on the ground, but for the political and strategic communications campaign too. They haven’t wasted much time; they've already made a formal request to use ATACMS to hit airbases. How President Biden responds next will be instructive to the Ukrainians on their next course of action. If the request is denied, or placed in review purgatory, President Zelensky may once again elect to ask for forgiveness rather than permission.
Churchill never actually said it, but a quote attributed to him reads: “You can depend on Americans to do the right thing when they have exhausted every other possibility.” Will Biden exhaust all possibilities? Or will he lead, and help Kyiv deliver a knockout blow?"
signüll on X - "lmao my goodness. while the dudes are defending their country, the women are complaining about… their love lives & dating apps. wrap it up everyone, we need an asteroid."
Souter’s Ghost on X - "Male population decimated by war. Women hardest hit."
Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says - "A negotiated outcome with Russia, as opposed to an outright Ukrainian military victory, is now seen as the most likely outcome by most Europeans, according to a major poll of 15 countries. Support for Ukraine’s cause remains strong across Europe despite battlefield reverses, but European voters increasingly regard arming Ukraine as necessary not to achieve a complete Ukrainian battlefield victory, but instead to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in future negotiations with Russia. The European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank polled 19,566 people in 15 countries in the first half of May 2024. The thinktank has regularly carried out surveys on Ukraine, but it is the first time it has also polled inside Ukraine itself, where it finds support for war and victory are strong, despite talk of weakening morale. A total of 34% of Ukrainians currently say they trust the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, “a great deal”, while a further 31% trust him “quite a lot” – meaning that those who are keeping faith with their leader outnumber those who are not by two to one. When asked about the most likely outcome of the war, 58% of Ukrainians foresaw a Ukrainian victory, 30% said it would end in a settlement, and only 1% expected Russia to emerge victorious. But a majority preferred ceding territory rather than abandoning sovereignty, defined by the right to join Nato and the EU."
Clearly, the poor Ukrainians are just victims of Western psyops, manipulation and brainwashing and are being forced to fight a proxy war against their will, because they're too stupid to know what they really want and only Russian shills do
Meme - Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo 🇺🇦🇺🇸: "Zelensky curse is real." *Zelensky with Boris Johnson, Mario Draghi, Kaja Kallas (the Prime Minister of Estonia), the President of Sri Lanka?, Shinzo Abe, Kiril Petkov (Prime Minister of Bulgaria), Joe Biden*"
Vladimir Putin is leading Russia into a demographic catastrophe - "Lies, damned lies, and statistics. If anyone knows how to falsify figures to bolster weak causes, it is the Kremlin... Putin points at Russia’s 144 million citizens and argues, through his propaganda mouthpieces, that it is “impossible” for Kyiv to win his war, given Ukraine’s population is a paltry 37 million. By this logic, figures released by British intelligence this week – that Russia lost more than 70,000 troops in the past two months, averaging daily conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 in May and June – become irrelevant. “Russia can always find more men”, one hears people say, justifying Western inaction. Except it can’t. Raised on documentaries about the “unstoppable” Russian bear – capable of tearing its way through Eastern Europe, as it did in the Second World War – we forget that this is not possible in modern Russia. Nor is it even desirable for Moscow.For one, while Putin has conducted several large-scale mobilisations, he remains cautious both in terms of the numbers of men he recruits and where they come from, prioritising conscripting in poorer communities far away from the power centres of Moscow and St Petersburg; often marginalised ethnic minorities. Already, some of these communities have given all they can, with reports of entire generations of men being wiped out in some towns and villages, triggering widespread, if localised (for now), protests. Moscow’s caution in this regard means it is obliged to empty prisons, exonerating murderers and rapists so they can serve in the Russian army or mercenary outfits like Wagner. Again, this resource is not infinite: numbers are now said to be so low that Moscow is turning to women’s prisons. Given that, by design, women only make up 4 per cent of the Russian army, this is extremely telling. But these are still relatively minor impediments when considered against broader trends. Russia’s fighting age population, at 14 million, is not gargantuan. With many not eligible or undesirable for recruitment for geographic reasons, the number shrinks further. Many of Russia’s young fled after the full-scale invasion: an estimated 300,000 by mid-March 2022, 500,000 by the end of August, and an additional 400,000 by early October. Estimates put the current number of the departed at over a million. Then there’s the fact that the full-scale invasion deepened Russia’s demographic crisis. Deaths have outnumbered births in the country since 2000. That – two and half years into the full-scale invasion – as many as 350,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded is indicative of the scale of the catastrophe. I could go on. Russia is not as powerful as the Soviet Union: approximately half of the Soviet population came from what today are non-Russian countries – and even then, twice as powerful in numerical terms, it lost its war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. That conflict underscores that army size is only part of the equation. Indeed, many of the vital components necessary to win wars – like military adaptability and modern tech – work in Kyiv’s favour. That’s before one considers its will to survive as a free nation. And one cannot put a figure on that."
Lukasz Olejnik on X - "Poland-Ukraine cooperation agreement signed. Poland gives security guarantees to Ukraine in the event of future Russian aggression. But also in the event of intensification of current ones."
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦 on X - "If Russia makes a serious attempt to conquer the rest of Ukraine, Poland may jump in to the war on Ukraine's side. This is self-preservation on Poland's part. They know if Ukraine falls, they're next."
Moscow is bombing and looting its own cities in Russia - "The independent Russian medium Astra estimates that Russia has inadvertently dropped more than 100 bombs on its own territory and in occupied territories in eastern Ukraine over the past four months, this at a time when the use of slide bombs has increased sharply."
Only China can end the war in Ukraine, Finland’s president says - "“I have always been of an opinion that this is a European war, and therefore Europe and its allies should be helping Ukraine to win it," said Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. “And when asking for help from China, especially now when it is clear that they are helping Russia, we have to understand that the price for China’s involvement would be far higher than anyone would be ready to pay." In any case, there is little incentive for Xi to spend political capital on diplomacy in Ukraine at this stage, as Beijing benefits from Russia getting weaker and more dependent on it just as the West expends military capabilities that could one day be used in Asia... Then, there is the issue of whether Putin would follow Chinese advice. “Without China, it would be much harder for Russia to prosecute this war—but not impossible," said Alexander Gabuev, a specialist on Sino-Russian relations and director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “The Chinese realize that they have leverage, but they aren’t sure that this leverage is big enough for the war to stop should they remove their support. They understand that Putin is absolutely possessed by this war.""
The Return of Industrial Warfare - "The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own. The mass scale combat has pitted 250,000 Ukrainian soldiers, together with 450,000 recently mobilised citizen soldiers against about 200,000 Russian and separatist troops. The effort to arm, feed and supply these armies is a monumental task. Ammunition resupply is particularly onerous. For Ukraine, compounding this task are Russian deep fires capabilities, which target Ukrainian military industry and transportation networks throughout the depth of the country. The Russian army has also suffered from Ukrainian cross-border attacks and acts of sabotage, but at a smaller scale. The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base. This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war. If the US government is planning to once again become the arsenal of democracy, then the existing capabilities of the US military-industrial base and the core assumptions that have driven its development need to be re-examined."
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