Migrants and Crime in Sweden in the Twenty-First Century
"In 2005, the Swedish Crime Prevention Agency published a report about the link between immigration and crime. Since then, no comprehensive study has been conducted even though Sweden has experienced a large influx of migrants in combination with a rising crime rate. This study conducted by Göran Adamson and Tino Sanandaji is the first purely descriptive scientific investigation on the matter in fifteen years. The investigation (from 2002 to 2017) covers seven distinct categories of crime, and distinguishes between seven regions of origin. Based on 33 per cent of the population (2017), 58 per cent of those suspect for total crime on reasonable grounds are migrants. Regarding murder, manslaughter and attempted murder, the figures are 73 per cent, while the proportion of robbery is 70 per cent. Non-registered migrants are linked to about 13 per cent of total crime. Given the fact that this group is small, crime propensity among non-registered migrants is significant.
“The situation for us Swedes is, then, infinitely more fortunate. Our population is homogeneous, not only in terms of our race but also regarding so many other issues.” (Erlander, 1965, p. 60.) The words belong to Tage Erlander, Sweden’s Social democratic Prime Minister between 1946 and 1969. We are a prosperous and fortunate country, he maintains, because we are unified. We think alike and act alike. By means of careful and persistent social measures, our population has slowly been trimmed and finetuned so as to achieve a historically unique sense of trust, social order and efficiency. In modern language, Erlander would claim that our country is fortunate because it is not characterized by multiculturalism and “diversity”.
Since Erlander’s time, a silent revolution has occurred at the heart of the reformist left. Now, diversity is said to give us prosperity, while defending the idea of a unified population is fraught with imminent political risks. Social democratic views of the 1960’s are now considered far right-wing - a psychological trauma as if straight out of an Ingmar Bergman movie...
Migration, we are told, is beneficial for Sweden. But if this is so, it would also show in crime statistics. According to the present investigation, the first more comprehensive study since the 2005 report by the Swedish Crime Prevention Agency, this is, however, not the case. In 2017, 58% among those suspected for crime on reasonable grounds are migrants. Regarding murder and manslaughter, the corresponsing figures are 73%. These figures are interesting out of purely scientific reasons. Due to migration, murder rate in Sweden has quadrupled.
As a universal role model for social and political prosperity, Sweden’s recent crime trends has gained international attention. What can we do about it? What does it mean? The are no answers to these pressing questions. But Sweden might point towards an uncertain future. In a global world with increasing migration where the nation state is being eroded by neo-liberals from the outside and multiculturalists from the inside, these Swedish trends may soon spread throughout the Western community.
In 2002, an editorial in Aftonbladet, Sweden’s top selling tabloid, carried a warning: “Do not strengthen racist prejudices!” The newspaper had been informed that the Crime Prevention Agency, Sweden’s official institution for the study of crime on an aggregate level, in its coming 2005 report would start presenting crime based on ethnic background. Aftonbladet was alarmed: “In case the Crime Prevention Agency distinguishes between “Swedes“ and “immigrants“, it will also imply that crime might be caused by ethnic background.” This, Aftonbladet continued, “would instantly play into the hands of racists.” “The right-wing extremists and their lies about a connection between ethnicity and crime, Aftonbladet concluded, “cannot pass unchallenged. But we need a serious debate. We certainly do not need crime statistics the mere presence of which only fuel racist prejudices.” (Aftonbladet, June 27, 2002).
Aftonbladet appears troubled by the fact that, in case the Crime Prevention Agency will start distinguishing between Swedes and immigrants, “crime might be caused by ethnic background”. The purpose of methodological distinctions, however, was always to look for plausible differences. When Aftonbladet claims that this “would instantly play into the hands of racists”, the newspaper makes a remarkable concession, namely that racists will profit from scientific data.
True to the tone, Aftonbladet ends with a bold statement. Any connection in between ethnicity and crime is not only a “lie”, but something verging on fascism. If we rely on data assembled by the Crime Prevention Agency, “a serious debate”, Aftonbladet maintains, is no longer possible. Crime statistics “fuel racist prejudices.” In case we wish to prevent racist exaggerations, then, the migration debate must be founded on the opposite of statistical data - i.e. outburts, stereotypes, exaggerations. This emotional anti-intellectualism as exemplified by Aftonbladet has defined Swedish migration discourse for decades.
The present report takes a different stance. Knowledge never lies - if it did, it wouldn’t be knowledge. We need it to avoid extremist simplifications. The assumption that certain methodological distinctions must be kept out of sight of the public is dangerous and anti-democratic. Integration of marginalized groups is impossible without scientific data...
Over the last few decades, those who commit crimes in Sweden are increasingly clustered both geographically and socially. The risk of ending up as victim of crime is getting more and more unevenly distributed. (Nilsson and Estrada 2005) Inhabitants in so-called” vulnerable areas” are often migration with higher risk of being either criminal or victim of crime. Updating the data material on crime and migration leads to new and important data, and knowledge on crime and migration is seriously wanting, according to public institutions, politicians, and the majority population.
One of our main concerns here is to study the integration of second-generation migrants and how this integration has changed over time. Historically – from the 1940s to the end of the 1970s - criminal migrants gradually tended to fuse with the majority population over time, both in terms of social status and regarding propensity for crime. An important task is to analyze if and if so to what extent these patterns of migration are still valid, and, in case this blending never occurs, to map those particularly vulnerable groups in order to initiate early preemptive action.
This entirely updated study questions the left-wing assumption that knowledge only fuels right-wing conspiracies. The truth is the opposite. In case we wish to fuel generalizations, stigmatizations based on anecdotes, rumors, political agitation etc., then we must try to prevent any attempt to acquire scientific knowledge. Knowledge undermines stereotypes and leads to more nuanced discussion. Numerous previous studies on crime and migration in Sweden are based on these assumptions.
There are many reasons why information on crime among migrants and their children is important. Detailed knowledge about groups prone for criminal behavior avoids random, costly, and inefficient measures. Knowledge tells us about long-term relations between migration and crime. Knowledge might inform us about why some cities and suburbs are more affected by crime than others. Continuously updated data material, finally, might tell us why different crimes fluctuate over time.
Over the recent past, the relation between criminal propensity and migration was subject of a number of Swedish studies - among them two reports by BRÅ (Sweden’s Crime Prevention Agency). Its 1996 report analyzed the period between 1985 and 1989, while the report from 2005 studied data between 1997 and 2001. No further major investigation has, however, been conducted after 2001. This matter-of-fact has sparked a lively debate. Morgan Johansson, Sweden’s Minister of Justice, has for instance kept saying that data on migrants and crime are unimportant “because we know that migrants are overrepresented in crime” (Johansson, 2018). Others, like the top selling tabloid Aftonbladet above, has insisted that this is not true, and that statistical data will only play into the hands of populists and racists.
Still, this unwillingness to update material remains controversial, and has been subject of various forms of critical remarks. While many seem to believe data on the relation between crime and migration is illegal, this is actually not the case...
The report will also update figures on crime among second generation migrants – i.e. individuals born in their new host country with one or two foreign-born parents. This group has gained considerable attention in numerous international studies. It was also high-lighted in the 2005 report by the Crime Prevention Agency, stating that “the general picture presented by these studies is that this particular group, in comparison with both foreign-born and those born with two native parents, has a higher propensity for criminal activity.” (Brå 2005, p. 7)...
In 2018, Uppdrag Granskning, a TV-program broadcasted on Swedish state television, surveyed every individual registered for rape or attempted rape between 2012 and 2017. 58% were foreign-born. Among the remaining 42% born in Sweden, some had a migrant background as children to foreign-born, but their exact proportion was not presented. Among those registered for attempted, and completed sexual assault, where victim and criminal were strangers, a good 80% were foreign-born.
Another survey conducted in 2018 by the newspaper Aftonbladet studied 112 individuals registered for group rape (at least two offenders) since 2012. Among them, 73% were foreign-born. In case those born in Sweden with two migrant parents were added, 88% were foreign-born.
In 2017, the newspaper Expressen did a survey of 192 individuals in Stockholm, who, according to police files, were either members of criminal gangs, or had links to criminal networks (as a result of court sentences or preliminary investigations). 82% were migrants, defined as being foreign-born or having two foreign-born parents. In case those with one foreign-born parent was added, the figure rose to 95%.
Yet another set of data was assembled in 2017 by Dagens Nyheter. The material consisted of 100 criminals registered or suspected in investigations on gunfire on public places between 2013 and 2017. 90 of them (90%) had one or two foreign-born parents. Among them, about every second had arrived in Sweden when they were young, while the rest were born in Sweden.
Among these particular types of registered criminal activity, a large proportion is foreign-born. Regarding other types of crime, the proportion of criminals with a Swedish background is much higher. Worth adding, the vast majority of migrants are, just like Swedes, law-abiding citizens...
Migrant crime is often, for instance, explained by poverty or other socioeconomic factors. Whether social deprivation suddenly occurs on arrival in the new host country, or whether it is rather the result of an earlier lifestyle cannot, however, be answered in the abstract without careful empirical analysis. (See further below.)
Crime statistics only shows individuals registered for crime. Yet, these figures might be exaggerated due to a tendency among crime witnesses - whether consciously or not - to single out migrants. Excessive focus on migrants may also be contextualized by a comparison with three other groups with a significantly higher crime propensity – men, low earners, and those on social benefits.
It is important to point out that the overrepresentation among various groups always change and tends to decrease in the long run. As indicated by a related study in Norway over a similar period of time, overrepresentation gradually tends to become less pronounced. It is a question of great scientific value whether this applies to Sweden as well - for migrants as a whole or for certain groups among them...
One reason why crime among migrants may be exaggerated is because they might be subject to discrimination by the Swedish judicial system, or that crime victims may be prone to single out individuals with a migrant background. There are, on the other hand, tendencies whereby criminality among migrants might be underestimated, such as the fact that these crimes often take place in areas where witnesses choose to remain silent. Also, they often occur within clan structures out of sight of the legal system.
The respective impact of these various statistical uncertainties is obviously hard to estimate. The Crime Prevention Agency still maintains that statistics available on those suspected and convicted offer a good or very good approximation of real overrepresentation in criminal activity. Finally, three things should be brought in mind. First: the figures presented in this report relates to registered crime - not actual crime. Second: they say nothing about the question why certain groups are overrepresented in crime. This is a descriptive study. Third: migrants are not only overrepresented among criminals, but also among victims of crime. The last observation is worth a comment. It is often said, and particularly by those who are perceived as being “on the left”, that we are only witnessing “infighting among criminals”, and that “ordinary citizens are not endangered”. They try to downplay the dangers and take the steam out of right-wing populists. But migrants with a propensity for crime are also individuals who should be protected as any citizen instead of being killed in gang shoot-outs. It is not clear why this approach would counter far right ideas. In fact, right-wingers make use of similar arguments, whereby migrants with a criminal behavior somehow do not count as our equals, and as long as “we” are not in danger, we can just close our eyes and quietly hope that the problem with simply solve itself. The idea smacks of upper-class detachment, whether it comes from a compassionate left or from a heartless right.
An extensive, systematic literature on criminal activity among foreigners goes back more than a century... More recently, research has focused those who are born in their new host country with one or two foreign-born parents. (Killias 1989; Martens 1997; Kardell and Carlsson 2009; Salmi et al. 2015). These reports all indicate that this group is more criminally active compared with both foreign-born, and those born in the country with two native parents...
A number of studies were conducted targeting foreign-born and children of migrants between the 1980s and the first decade of the new millennium. (Kardell 2011). These studies all showed that the proportion of migrants registered for crime was remarkably stable, indicating an “over risk” at roughly 2 throughout the period. (Over risk is similar to overrepresentation, save for the fact that the comparison is made only with native Swedes, instead of with the entire population.)...
Judging from international research, it is hard to tell whether migrants are more prone for criminal activities compared with the native population. According to scholars studying the US, the foreign-born population tend to be less criminal compared with the US-born population, while the situation in Europe and the Nordic counties often is the opposite...
In Sweden, numerous studies show that foreign-born, compared to the Swedish native population, have an overrepresentation in registered crime between 2 and 2,5... The over risk in crime in relation to the majority population varies between types of crime and region of origin. Certain regions of origin have about the same crime rate as the majority population. Generally, migrants’ over risk tends to be higher regarding more serious crime, and lower with respect to acquisitive crime and traffic offence...
Another important question is to what extent over risk in registered crime reflects factual overrepresentation or whether it rather relates to problem of method, where an increased presence of migrants with a criminal record is due to discrimination in the judicial system, an increased likelihood to be singled out and reported, or greater police attendance in areas dominated by migrants. Based on a research survey, the Crime Prevention Agency presented various reports claiming that while migrants’ crime may be slightly biased, most of the reported overrepresentation still reflects factual reality.
Why are migrants overrepresented in registered crime? Many reasons have been suggested, including socioeconomic factors such as unemployment, low income, and lacking education (Brå 2005; Hällsten et al. 2013) along with demographic factors. Migrants have a bias towards young men, and young men are generally more criminal. Difficulties to break up and resettle in a new country, and various problematic ways in which they are received in Sweden - sometimes called “integration practice” - have been raised as other plausible factors behind a criminal bias. (Brå 2005; Kardell 2011)...
Skardhamar et al. (2014) compared crime participation among migrants in Norway and Finland. While migrants overall were overrepresented in crime in both countries, propensity for crime differed notably between country of origin. By and large, migrant groups overrepresented in crime in Norway exhibited the same tendency also in Finland.
Pfeiffer et al. (2018) examined the effect of refugees on crime in the German state of Niedersachsen by investigating crime participation over time. Altogether, refugees were overrepresented in crime, and crimes where refugees were registered increased rapidly over time. The report also brought to attention various investigations saying that the likelihood for refugees to be reported for crime is significantly higher than for German natives.
In 2017, the Norwegian Agency of Statistics investigated the overrepresentation studying crime among migrants and migrants’ children between 1992 and 2015. Overall, both groups exhibited higher registered crime rate compared to native Norwegians. However, the over risk fluctuated: in 1992 it was 1.5, going up to at most 1.8 in 2002, after which is actually decreased to 1.4 in 2015. The report suggests various reasons behind it, such as a changing mix of migrants and natives, or a potentially better integration. The fact that the over risk in Norway has taken a downward turn after 2000 is highly interesting, and the question arises: Has a similar recent change taken place also in Sweden?
Studies on Sweden tend to show that migrants’ children have a lower over risk compared to foreign-born: 1.5 between 1985 and 1989, and 1.6 between 1997 and 2001 respectively. (Brå 1996; Brå 2005). Sweden, hence, deviates from the international pattern, where migrants’ children have a higher crime participation compared to first generation of migrants. (Brå 2005). According to a study on the period 1997–2001 by Kardell and Martens (2013), the total crime overrepresentation of migrants’ children as a group is about the same as that of first-generation migrants. Migrants’ children are actually less likely to be registered for crime compared to first generation migrants. It is, however, important to note that migrant children registered for crime are often registered for more than one crime.
This is an important insight, raising the question whether second generation migrants in Sweden, as in so many other countries, show a higher criminal propensity than first generation migrants, in particular regarding crimes of violence. In Statistisk sentralbyrås 2017 investigation about the situation in Norway, various categories of crime develop very differently between first and second generation migrants. The results in Denmark are similar. Here, second generation migrants with non-European parents are more overrepresented in registered crime (Danmarks Statistik 2016)...
This article is based on statistical material from the Crime Prevention Agency, using the same method as the agency in order to update the material to 2017. For the first time, the majority of those registered as crime suspects are foreign-born. The proportion of those with a foreign background increase from 18% between 1985 and 1989 to 33% between 2013 and 2017. During these two time intervals, the proportion of crime suspects with a foreign background went up from 31% to 58%.
Concerning certain types of crime, migrants’ over risk is even higher. Regarding murder and manslaughter, the proportion rose from 42% to 72%. At the same time, however, migrants’ over risk for crime only increased slightly. How is this possible? Because practically the entire increase in crime propensity among migrants was caused by the fact that their share of the population had increased. This is an important observation. The reason behind the rising trend, hence, has little to do with individual migrants becoming more prone to criminal activity. The over risk among the entire population of migrants increased from 1.8 between 1985 and 1989 to 2.0 between 1997 and 2001. No further changes have been registered between 2013 and 2017. Registered crime among those who are not nationally registered has, moreover, increased drastically.
If we compare first and second generation of migrants, the development has gone in the opposite direction. Since 2005 and the publication of the second report by the Crime Prevention Agency, the over risk for first generation of migrants has gone down, while it has increased for second generation of migrants born in Sweden. The downward turn regarding first generation of migrants also applies for individuals from countries outside of Europe, even if this material does not include some newly arrived refugees.
Sweden used to be somewhat of a statistical outlier, with second generation of migrants showing a clearly lower crime risk compared to first generation. At the time, Sweden resembled the development in Norway, according to Norwegian Statistics Office. As shown by the present article, these figures no longer apply. Instead, we are currently witnessing a rapid increase in registered crime among juveniles with a foreign background. The proportion of crime among individuals with a foreign background has increased not only in general terms but also regarding most crimes. One exception is constituted by rape and attempted rape, where the group’s over risk has gone down considerably. Migrants’ share of other sexual crimes has, simultaneously, increased. To what extent this is caused by changes in the definition of rape as a concept during our period remain, however, an open question.
Another striking change has to do with the increase of crime suspects among those who are not nationally registered. These individuals are all from abroad but absent in the group of migrants because they are not nationally registered. Undocumented migrants, asylum seekers yet to enter the system, foreign gangs, and temporary visitors count among them. This group’s share of total crime saw an increase from 3% between 1985 and 1989 to 13% between 2013 and 2017. Information available for each and every definition within this group is unreliable. This means, for instance, that unregistered cannot be included in data about migrants’ over risk for crime, because over risk measures likelihood to be registered for crime per person and non-registered are not identified. Then again, unregistered are included in the more general statistics about migrants’ total number of crimes.
The number of those who are not nationally registered in Sweden is unknown. Migrants’ over risk in crime would most likely rise in case undocumented migrants and asylum seekers were included in the definition. There is an added complexity here. As we saw above, the group of not nationally registered now constitutes a large proportion of registered crime. This, however, makes it harder to compare migrant groups, because we can’t establish country of origin among those who are not nationally registered. The fact that undocumented migrants has shifted from being a marginal factor to constituting a significant proportion of all known crime suspects urgently calls for more research on this particular category...
Whether poverty in a new host country leads to criminality, or a previous criminal behavior from the home county leads to poverty in the new host country is an open question and cannot be answered without rigorous analysis. Without taking sides in this discussion, it seems difficult to defend the idea that people immigrate into a country without a lifestyle and a rather firm set of personal beliefs. Therefore, this article has not taken socio-economic factors into consideration."
Interestingly, the author wrote "The Trojan Horse: A Leftist Critique of Multiculturalism in the West", described thus:
"In this book, Göran Adamson unmasks the dark reality behind multiculturalism’s vain radical promises. Multiculturalism is a conservative idea, which is seen as progressive. Multiculturalism and diversity are about background, ethnicity, belonging, spokespersons, identity, and roots. Those who talk about roots talk about an idyll of the past, a historical Eldorado in contrast to universal suffrage, technological progress, equality between men and women, and everything else that belongs to modern society. A conservative ideology does not become more radical just because it is being cherished by journalists, politicians, and academics who say they are.
Criticism against diversity, we are told, comes from the right. Göran Adamson takes the opposite position. Convincing criticism against diversity always comes from the left, from those who advocate meritocracy instead of group rights, majority and democracy instead of adoration of minorities, equality between men and women instead of patriarchy, the rule of law instead of ‘minority legislation’, science instead of belief, debate instead of censorship, modernity and the bliss of forgetting instead of an obsession with historical injustice. The only Swedish political party talking about roots with enthusiasm similar to that of the multiculturalists is the Sweden Democrats, a right wing populist party. Moreover, the ideology of diversity shows numerous similarities with neoliberalism. Neoliberalism profits from diversity, and diversity comes in handy to the neoliberals. The European establishment has allowed a Trojan Horse into it’s midst."