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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

My Bets for the Singapore General Election 2011

"God help those who do not help themselves." - Wilson Mizner


Unlike most people, I am pessimistic about the possibility of change.

Despite all the excitement in the air, one cannot forget that we've seen it all before in 2006 - whereas Blogs were the big thing then, Facebook and Twitter are now the poisons of choice. Yet there is something called the Echo Chamber effect, which "reinforce[s] a certain sense of truth that resonates with individual belief systems".

In other words, boys, you're preaching to the choir.

And to those who say that some old voters have died and many new young voters are going to be voting, remember that there're also many new citizens who will tend to support the existing government.

We also have yet to see what surprises will come up on the way to Cooling Off Day - not to mention how the Mainstream Media will be doing campaigning on Cooling Off Day itself.

To quote @rudeshock paraphrasing Emma Goldman, "If voting changes anything, they'd make it illegal. #hardtruths."

Putting my money where my mouth is, here're my Election 2011-related bets:

- If Marine Parades ousts Goh Chok Tong, I will buy Hui Ran lunch
- If GST doesn't rise within a year of the election (Polling Day) I'm donating my $400 pork-barrel money to charity
- If the PAP loses a grc I'll buy @jongolia and @jin_ lunch and @psychealkaios a bottle of French farmgrown apple cider (2%) from Barracks @ House (Dempsey). Which is excellent and a steal at $5.50 a glass, incidentally.

- If WP wins in Aljunied, I will buy "Ken" a Santouka Ramen
- If WP wins in Aljunied, aprilene says "we go get pho when I'm back :)"
- If "only a single GRC falls" chaosbutterfly will buy me lunch (no word on what if not even a single does)
- If they win 2 GRCs and 4 SMCs or more I'll buy @chewlink @joelfirenze and @shaunkoh ramen]

- If the PAP loses more than 4 seats, I'll buy Carl Rajoo a bottle of Perrier
If the PAP loses a GRC I'll get him a beer
If they lose the 2/3 majority I'll buy him dinner
If they lose power...

Someone: "if they lose power you will do a striptease?"
Me: "I think that will get people to try and boost their vote share"

However, I realise that I need to cover my downside risk. So I should make bets in the opposite direction too.

The bets I have so far:

If a GRC falls:

- Eisen will buy me lunch
- MFTTW will buy me a hawker centre lunch ("I'll up the ante if it's holland bt").

- If WP loses in Aljunied, "Ken" will buy me a Santouka Ramen
- If 2 or more GRCs fall I'll buy chaosbutterfly lunch]

The best offer I've had so far is from "Ralph Waldo Emerson" (don't look at me, he chose the nom de guerre): "if a GRC falls I buy you one hour with a social escort of your choice."

Of course all the conditions came later:

"okay okay
progress package
nothing more

if angmokio [or marine parade] falls
i get u the 1,500 one"

Oh, and if Nicole Seah loses her election deposit I'll contribute $200 to defraying it.
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